Story of 6 key macro signals for the week to August 02, 2025

4 Aug 2025 , 02:43 PM

STEEP TARIFF BILL COULD WEIGH ON INDIAN EXPORTS

The big news this week was the US imposing 25% tariffs on Indian imports plus penal tariffs for trading with Russia. That is going to hit sectors like textiles, chemicals, and jewellery. The Indian game plan is unclear, but India could focus on domestic growth boost as an offset.

In the coming week, the big event is the RBI monetary policy. It comes at a time when inflation is at 77-month lows and growth triggers are uncertain. That may just give the RBI reason to trigger one more rate cut of 25 bps as a growth booster next week.

• US BOND YIELDS TAPER ON FOMC DIFFERENCES

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over the last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
Aug 01, 2025	4.220	4.376	4.414	4.202
Jul 31, 2025	4.360	4.368	4.382	4.326
Jul 30, 2025	4.378	4.328	4.382	4.314
Jul 29, 2025	4.328	4.408	4.422	4.320
Jul 28, 2025	4.420	4.402	4.420	4.368
Jul 25, 2025	4.386	4.392	4.430	4.382

Data Source: Bloomberg

The bond yields, this week, fell from 4.386% to 4.220%. While the FOMC did not cut rates on 30-July, the dissent from Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman was enough to temper yields. The consensus is that rate cuts may still happen, albeit back-loaded in 2026. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.422% and a low of 4.202%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) BOUNCES WITH GDP BOOST

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
Aug 01, 2025	99.14	100.01	100.26	98.61
Jul 31, 2025	99.97	99.80	100.10	99.52
Jul 30, 2025	99.82	98.92	99.98	98.70
Jul 29, 2025	98.89	98.64	99.14	98.58
Jul 28, 2025	98.63	97.58	98.68	97.49
Jul 25, 2025	97.64	97.45	97.90	97.43

Data Source: Bloomberg

The US dollar index (DXY) showed a smart bounce this week from 97.64 levels to 99.14 levels. Fed holding rates plus Q2 GDP recovering to 3.0% from -0.5% in Q1 did the trick for the dollar index. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 100.26 and a low of 97.49 this week. It remains to be seen if the 100 level will prove to be a resistance for DXY.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS MARGINALLY HIGHER

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for the last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
Aug 01, 2025	6.371	6.377	6.378	6.367
Jul 31, 2025	6.376	6.384	6.384	6.364
Jul 30, 2025	6.365	6.359	6.379	6.358
Jul 29, 2025	6.369	6.374	6.382	6.359
Jul 28, 2025	6.373	6.352	6.374	6.348
Jul 25, 2025	6.353	6.329	6.365	6.327

Data Source: RBI

India bond yields inched up from 6.353% to 6.371%; as the markets are still divided over the rate cut possibility in the August MPC meet. The rise in the bond yields could also be partially attributed to bond selling taking prices down, although FPIs were net buyers. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.384% and low of 6.348%.

• RUPEE WEAKENS TO ALL-TIME LOWS

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
Aug 01, 2025	87.245	87.490	87.673	87.170
Jul 31, 2025	87.524	87.715	87.796	87.501
Jul 30, 2025	87.691	87.058	87.846	87.050
Jul 29, 2025	87.108	86.770	87.108	86.735
Jul 28, 2025	86.697	86.481	86.725	86.402
Jul 25, 2025	86.503	86.432	86.641	86.405

Data Source: RBI

Amidst the tariff uncertainty and the penal tariffs; the USDINR weakened from ₹86.503/$ to ₹87.691/$; and spent the last 3 days above the ₹87/$ mark. The spike in dollar index only added to the pressure on the USDINR. Last week, USDINR touched a high of ₹86.402/$ and a low of ͅ₹87.846/$. Banks continued to buy dollars aggressively.

• BRENT CRUDE SURGES ON RUSSIA SUPPLY CONCERNS

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
Aug 01, 2025	69.67	71.83	72.00	69.40
Jul 31, 2025	72.53	73.53	73.53	72.40
Jul 30, 2025	73.24	72.57	73.63	71.75
Jul 29, 2025	72.51	70.28	73.08	69.86
Jul 28, 2025	70.04	68.54	70.45	68.35
Jul 25, 2025	68.44	69.36	69.86	68.31

Data Source: Bloomberg

During the week, Brent Crude surged to $73.63/bbl on concerns over Russian sanctions. However, OPEC supply concerns brought crude to below $70/bbl at close to $69.67/bbl. Last week, Brent Crude touched a high of $73.63/bbl and a low of $68.35/bbl. A lot will depend on whether India continues to buy oil from Russia or decides to pander to the US.

• SPOT GOLD STAYS IN UNCERTAIN ZONE

The table captures the international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
Aug 01, 2025	3,362.88	3,290.83	3,363.55	3,281.55
Jul 31, 2025	3,290.32	3,275.91	3,314.98	3,273.77
Jul 30, 2025	3,275.25	3,324.01	3,334.21	3,268.15
Jul 29, 2025	3,326.84	3,316.54	3,334.21	3,307.95
Jul 28, 2025	3,314.64	3,335.00	3,345.56	3,301.66
Jul 27, 2025	3,333.68	3,329.43	3,337.36	3,323.98
Jul 25, 2025	3,337.18	3,369.29	3,373.73	3,325.05

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold prices are confused between demand and the Trump crypto plan. There are concerns that an aggressive crypto policy could dent the demand for gold. During the week, gold touched a high of $3,363.55/oz and a low of $3,268.15/oz.