Story of 6 key macro signals for the week to September 13, 2025

16 Sep 2025 , 11:47 AM

WEEK WAS ABOUT POSSIBLE SANCTIONS

This week it was clear that Trump will stop at nothing as he prepares to pull the EU and the NATO countries into putting sanctions on India and China for buying oil from Russia. According to the US, that is indirectly financing the Russian war against Ukraine.

Apart from the economic data points, markets will be keenly watching if EU and others join the US in sanctioning India and China. It may not be easy as it appears, but in times of strife, EU has stood by the US. The other big focus area this week will be the Fed meet outcome.

• US BOND YIELDS TREND LOWER THIS WEEK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over the last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
Sep 12, 2025	4.060	4.030	4.083	4.026
Sep 11, 2025	4.011	4.053	4.070	3.994
Sep 10, 2025	4.032	4.086	4.095	4.024
Sep 09, 2025	4.074	4.045	4.091	4.040
Sep 08, 2025	4.046	4.095	4.103	4.038
Sep 05, 2025	4.086	4.157	4.168	4.061

Data Source: Bloomberg

In the last 2 weeks, the US bond yields have tapered from 4.306% to 4.060%. Clearly, the demand supply mismatch of bonds in the market was temporary and has been addressed. With a 25-bps rate in the next Fed meet looking inevitable, bond yields have inched lower. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.103% and a low of 3.994%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) STRUGGLES AT 98-LEVEL RESISTANCE

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
Sep 12, 2025	97.55	97.52	97.86	97.49
Sep 11, 2025	97.53	97.79	98.09	97.47
Sep 10, 2025	97.78	97.83	97.93	97.60
Sep 09, 2025	97.79	97.38	97.82	97.25
Sep 08, 2025	97.45	97.79	97.94	97.42
Sep 05, 2025	97.77	98.24	98.26	97.43

Data Source: Bloomberg

The US dollar index (DXY) spent the entire week below the 98-levels, before eventually closing at 97.55 levels. The dollar index continues to be under pressure, as de-dollarization remains the domineering global trend. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 98.09 and a low of 97.25 this week. The resistance for the dollar index is moving lower.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS HARDEN THIS WEEK

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for the last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
Sep 12, 2025	6.483	6.466	6.491	6.451
Sep 11, 2025	6.472	6.481	6.497	6.465
Sep 10, 2025	6.483	6.493	6.519	6.467
Sep 09, 2025	6.486	6.461	6.495	6.441
Sep 08, 2025	6.463	6.477	6.492	6.459
Sep 05, 2025	6.461	6.477	6.492	6.459

Data Source: RBI

For the week, the India bond yields hardened from 6.461% to 6.483% levels. While there are still doubts on whether RBI will cut rates in October, the selling in bonds also spiked yields. RBI MPC stance in October is still unclear. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.519% and a low of 6.441%. Bond yields were in a wider range this week.

• RUPEE WEAKENS AMID LIMITED SUPPORT FROM RBI

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
Sep 12, 2025	88.277	88.298	88.431	88.232
Sep 11, 2025	88.267	88.105	88.499	88.084
Sep 10, 2025	88.054	88.220	88.267	88.021
Sep 09, 2025	88.248	88.002	88.261	87.949
Sep 08, 2025	87.981	88.153	88.196	87.922
Sep 05, 2025	88.187	88.125	88.367	88.069

Data Source: RBI

USDINR weakened further from ₹88.187/$ to ₹88.277/$ for the week, as the dollar index weakness has kept the rupee from falling hard. However, hedging pressure, tariff tantrums, and limited support from RBI put pressure on the rupee. Last week, USDINR touched a high of ₹87.922/$ and a low of ͅ₹88.499/$.

• BRENT CRUDE RISES DESPITE OPEC SUPPLY SURGE

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
Sep 12, 2025	66.99	66.24	68.17	65.71
Sep 11, 2025	66.37	67.58	67.62	66.15
Sep 10, 2025	67.49	66.69	67.78	66.66
Sep 09, 2025	66.39	66.23	67.38	66.12
Sep 08, 2025	66.02	65.55	67.04	65.51
Sep 05, 2025	65.50	66.82	67.05	65.07

Data Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil had two factors acting against it. The supply boost from OPEC-Plus and weak demand should have held down prices. However, markets are factoring in stringent sanctions on Russia by the US an EU. That spiked Brent Crude to $66.99/bbl. Last week, Brent Crude touched a high of $68.17/bbl and a low of $65.51/bbl.

• SPOT GOLD SECURELY PERCHED ABOVE $3,600/OZ

The table captures the international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
Sep 12, 2025	3,643.13	3,635.01	3,656.86	3,630.48
Sep 11, 2025	3,634.09	3,642.60	3,649.27	3,614.01
Sep 10, 2025	3,640.74	3,629.05	3,657.77	3,619.58
Sep 09, 2025	3,626.48	3,637.10	3,674.75	3,625.33
Sep 08, 2025	3,635.84	3,586.82	3,646.60	3,579.67
Sep 07, 2025	3,591.19	3,592.07	3,596.56	3,586.95
Sep 05, 2025	3,586.81	3,547.00	3,600.33	3,540.05

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold prices spiked from $3,587/oz to $3,643/oz in the week, as de-dollarization trend gave a boost to gold prices. Gold is seeing safe-haven demand, despite an unfavourable gold-silver ratio. During the week, gold touched a high of $3,674.75/oz and a low of $3,579.67/oz. Fed rate cut will also reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold!