Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended April 04, 2025

7 Apr 2025 , 10:25 AM

SORRY, FPIS TURN NET SELLERS ONCE AGAIN

For the week to April 04, 2025, the FPIs turned net sellers to the tune of $1,210 Million. This is despite the fact there were only 3 FPI data reporting days in this week. Actually, India had a lot going for it this week in terms of data. The price of Brent Crude cracked to $65.10/bbl, while the rupee hardened to ₹85.45/$. However, the overpowering sentiment in the week was the 27% reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US on India. The sell-off was across EMs.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO APRIL 04, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(11,089.22)	734.68	(10,354.54)	3,632.95	(6,721.59)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,40,769.68)	13,841.24	(1,26,928.44)	51,676.55	(75,251.89)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(16,226.69)	1,595.64	(14,631.05)	5,931.57	(8,699.48)
# – Recent Data is up to April 04, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Negative figures in brackets)

Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(8,699) Million of net selling overall by FPIs; and it has worsened since last week. This includes $(14,631) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $5,932 Million of net buying in debt. IPOs are virtually absent since mid-February. However, secondary market outflows have been almost unrelenting in year 2025.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to April 04, 2025, FPIs turned net sellers to the tune  of $(1,210) Million. Here is the week that was.

• The big news this week was on the reciprocal tariffs. The US imposed 27% reciprocal tariffs on all imports from India. However, for now, it has exempted pharma from that list. However, most of the other sectors are likely to see an export impact.
• As the world markets got increasingly apprehensive about a global slowdown, the price of Brent Crude crashed to $65.10/bbl. The fall has been nearly -10% in the week, with most of the fall in oil prices happening on Friday.
• Government of India has received ₹74,000 crore as dividends from the CPSEs in FY25, which is 16% higher than the figure in FY24. More importantly, this is much higher than the ₹55,000 crore budgeted in the revised estimates for FY25.
• Government is likely to incentivize the manufacture of heavy mining machinery and equipment domestically. With rising coal output and trade pressures, India is keen to reduce imports of heavy machinery. The scheme will be operated through Coal India Ltd.
• Indian government may have a total payout of ₹12 Trillion on sovereign gold bonds (SGB) at the current gold prices. This liability could escalate if gold prices rally further. For the government, SGBs have turned out to be a naked short position on Gold.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
10-Mar-25	-3,214.76	-3,214.76	-369.25	-369.25
11-Mar-25	-497.92	-3,712.68	-57.08	-426.33
12-Mar-25	-139.15	-3,851.83	-15.93	-442.26
13-Mar-25	-1,410.29	-5,262.12	-161.61	-603.87
14-Mar-25	0.00	-5,262.12	0.00	-603.87
17-Mar-25	-857.26	-6,119.38	-98.44	-702.31
18-Mar-25	-3,707.30	-9,826.68	-427.15	-1,129.46
19-Mar-25	710.42	-9,116.26	81.97	-1,047.49
20-Mar-25	-1,031.36	-10,147.62	-119.23	-1,166.72
21-Mar-25	3,181.57	-6,966.05	368.65	-798.07
24-Mar-25	5,263.22	-1,702.83	610.46	-187.61
25-Mar-25	6,205.50	4,502.67	722.98	535.37
26-Mar-25	5,698.74	10,201.41	664.73	1,200.10
27-Mar-25	2,457.91	12,659.32	286.24	1,486.34
28-Mar-25	8,120.96	20,780.28	946.93	2,433.27
31-Mar-25	0.00	20,780.28	0.00	2,433.27
01-Apr-25	0.00	20,780.28	0.00	2,433.27
02-Apr-25	-6,335.66	14,444.62	-740.31	1,692.96
03-Apr-25	-1,060.32	13,384.30	-123.86	1,569.10
04-Apr-25	-2,958.56	10,425.74	-345.44	1,223.66

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net inflows of $3,231 Million; net outflows of $(194) Million, $(604) Million, $(2,835) Million, $(1,253) Million, $(283) Million, and $(1,601) Million. The week to April 04, 2025, saw net FPIs net selling in equities to the tune of $(1,210) Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI inflows into equities were to the tune ₹10,426 Crore or $1,224 Million; largely helped by the surge in buying in last week of March 2025.

With most triggers done, the next big triggers would be the April RBI MPC meet and the Indian government’s response to the 27% reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US.