Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended August 01, 2025

4 Aug 2025 , 10:00 AM

FOR FPIS, IT WAS RISK-OFF SELLING ALL ALONG

FPIs were net sellers in the previous week to August 01, 2025, to the tune of $(2,000) Million; after they had sold $(1.20) Billion in two weeks prior to that. That makes it $(3.20) billion of net selling by FPIs in Indian equities in the last 3 weeks. In the latest week to August 01, 2025, FPIs were net sellers on all trading days. The weak sentiments were driven by the Indo-US trade deal uncertainty, which ended in penal tariffs on India.

During the week, the dollar index bounced sharply to 99.14 levels, after a strong 3.0% GDP growth in Q2. That led to the USDINR weakening sharply to ₹87.20/$. The rupee even touched its all-time low during the week. Brent Crude rallied to $70/bbl mark on hopes that tight US sanctions on Russian oil would make the oil market undersupplied. For now, the sentiments are marred by 25% tariffs on India and additional penal tariffs for trading with Russia.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO AUGUST 01, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for the last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore)	8,466.77	6,123.51	14,590.28	(22,153.36)	(7,563.08)
Jul-2025 (₹ Crore)	(31,988.32)	14,247.74	(17,740.58)	12,202.89	(5,537.69)
Aug-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(6,180.29)	27.01	(6,153.28)	10.48	(6,142.80)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,38,056.45)	36,262.51	(1,01,793.94)	24,779.85	(77,014.09)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(15,839.29)	4,206.96	(11,632.33)	2,779.81	(8,852.52)
# – Recent Data is up to August 01, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Overall FPI flows for 2025 are still negative at $(8,853) million. This comprised $(11,632) million of net selling in equities, offset by $2,780 million of net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of $(15,839) Million; offset by IPO buying of $4,207 Million. QIB and anchor inflows of the NSDL IPO will be reported next week.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to August 01, 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities worth $(2,000) million. Here are the key market drivers.

The much-touted Indo-US trade deal ended with a whimper as the US imposed 25% tariffs on Indian goods exports to the US, plus penal tariffs for buying oil and arms from Russia. This is likely to hit textiles, gems & jewellery, and chemical exports to the US.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to August 01, 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities worth $(2,000) Million. Here are the key market drivers.

• The much-touted Indo-US trade deal ended with a whimper as the US imposed 25% tariffs on Indian goods exports to the US plus penal tariffs for buying oil and arms from Russia. This is likely to hit textiles, gems & jewellery, and chemical exports to the US.
• The mega ₹4,012 Crore IPO of NSDL was subscribed over 41 times, which shows good appetite in the IPO market. The QIB portion got subscribed more than 100 times; and this comes on top of a very robust anchor allocation one day prior to the IPO.
• In major India data flows, June IIP growth came in at 1.52%, but what was more gratifying was the 64 bps upgrade to May IIP at 1.87%. Also, there was a surge in fiscal deficit, adding ₹2.68 Trillion in June, with Q1 fiscal deficit at 17.9% of full-year target.
• The US Fed statement on July 30, 2025; again held status quo on Fed rates. This time, there was not just pressure from President Trump, but also a rare dissent vote from 2 FOMC governors (Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman), calling for a 25 bps rate cut.
• US Q2 GDP turned around to +3.0% from -0.5% contraction in Q1. This tallies with Powell’s view on contraction due to front-loading of imports in Q1. PCE inflation inched up by 20 bps to 2.6%, another reason for Jerome Powell to not cut the Fed rates.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
07-Jul-25	691.97	691.97	81.04	81.04
08-Jul-25	2,771.19	3,463.16	322.93	403.97
09-Jul-25	284.23	3,747.39	33.16	437.13
10-Jul-25	672.20	4,419.59	78.35	515.48
11-Jul-25	839.75	5,259.34	98.13	613.61
14-Jul-25	-4,495.01	764.33	-523.57	90.04
15-Jul-25	-789.32	-24.99	-91.79	-1.75
16-Jul-25	-173.63	-198.62	-20.23	-21.98
17-Jul-25	-1,040.59	-1,239.21	-121.27	-143.25
18-Jul-25	-2,864.12	-4,103.33	-333.36	-476.61
21-Jul-25	781.85	-3,321.48	90.70	-385.91
22-Jul-25	-1,084.36	-4,405.84	-125.76	-511.67
23-Jul-25	4,618.07	212.23	535.38	23.71
24-Jul-25	-3,299.28	-3,087.05	-382.01	-358.30
25-Jul-25	-1,995.50	-5,082.55	-231.15	-589.45
28-Jul-25	-1,419.44	-6,501.99	-164.05	-753.50
29-Jul-25	-5,963.60	-12,465.59	-689.03	-1,442.53
30-Jul-25	-3,692.35	-16,157.94	-425.18	-1,867.71
31-Jul-25	-162.10	-16,320.04	-18.58	-1,886.29
01-Aug-25	-6,153.28	-22,473.32	-702.80	-2,589.09

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(113) Million, $(1,090) Million, net inflows of $614 Million, $497 Million, $1,522 Million, $130 Million, and $391 Million. The week to August 01, 2025, saw net FPI selling of $(2,000) Million in equities.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were ₹(22,473) Crore or $(2,589) Million. Debt markets saw net inflows of $1.40 Billion in July 2025.

In the coming week, FPI flows will react to specific data points. The biggest story will be the outcome of the penal tariffs imposed on India by the US and its implications on specific export driven sectors like textiles, jewellery, chemicals etc. The other big story next week will be the RBI MPC meet, with a strong chance of a rate cut to boost growth!