FPI FLOWS STAY UNDER PRESSURE DURING THE WEEK
There seems to be just no relenting on FPI outflows; as it intensified in the latest week to January 17, 2025. After FPI selling of $2,086 Million in equities in the previous week; the latest week to 17-Jan saw intense FPI selling to the tune of $2,568 Million. Once again, FPIs were net sellers on all 5 trading sessions. FPIs have been net sellers of $5.90 Billion in just the last 4 weeks; a trend of FPI selling that has continued since the start of October 2024.
There have been several triggers for this relentless FPI selling. Firstly, FPIs are concerned about the Indian rupee, inching closer to ₹87/$. The last 2 weeks also saw a spike in Brent crude prices, after the US widened and tightened sanctions on Russia. The Buffett Ratio for India is at 147% and that is making FPIs uncomfortable. Despite positive cues like the Israel Hamas ceasefire and better IT sector results in Q3FY25, FPI selling has been rampant.
MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO JANUARY 17, 2025
The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.
Calendar
Month |
FPI Flows Secondary | FPI Flows Primary | FPI Flows Equity | FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid | Overall FPI Flows |
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore) | (146,048.38) | 24,608.94 | (121,439.44) | (11,375.78) | (132,815.22) |
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore) | 1,27,759.75 | 43,347.14 | 1,71,106.89 | 65,954.38 | 2,37,061.27 |
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore) | (1,21,210.21) | 1,21,637.15 | 426.94 | 1,65,342.98 | 1,65,769.92 |
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore) # | (45,498.00) | 1,101.78 | (44,396.22) | (10,745.22) | (55,141.44) |
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore) | (45,498.00) | 1,101.78 | (44,396.22) | (10,745.22) | (55,141.44) |
For 2025 ($ Million) | (5,283.07) | 128.05 | (5,155.02) | (1,255.90) | (6,410.92) |
# – Recent Data is up to January 17, 2025 |
Data Source: NSDL (Negative figures in brackets)
For the just concluded year 2024, almost the entire FPI flows comprised only of debt as equity secondary market outflows, neutralized equity IPO inflows. Year 2025 has begun on a very cautious note with $6,411 Million of net selling overall by FPIs. This included $5,155 Million of net selling in equities and $1,256 Million of net selling in debt. However, these are early days still and the picture of FPI allocation to Indian equities for 2025 is still evolving.
FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS
For the week to January 17, 2025, FPIs remained net sellers to the tune of $(2,568) Million, higher than the previous week. Here is the week that was.
DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS
Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.
Date | FPI Flow (₹ Crore) | Cumulative flows | FPI Flow($ Million) | Cumulative flows |
23-Dec-24 | -1,872.95 | -1,872.95 | -220.12 | -220.12 |
24-Dec-24 | 155.40 | -1,717.55 | 18.27 | -201.85 |
25-Dec-24 | 0.00 | -1,717.55 | 0.00 | -201.85 |
26-Dec-24 | -1,804.10 | -3,521.65 | -211.77 | -413.62 |
27-Dec-24 | -1,592.20 | -5,113.85 | -186.73 | -600.35 |
30-Dec-24 | 370.17 | -4,743.68 | 43.25 | -557.10 |
31-Dec-24 | -1,598.78 | -6,342.46 | -187.07 | -744.17 |
01-Jan-25 | -5,351.05 | -11,693.51 | -624.96 | -1,369.13 |
02-Jan-25 | -597.46 | -12,290.97 | -69.70 | -1,438.83 |
03-Jan-25 | 1,663.60 | -10,627.37 | 193.93 | -1,244.90 |
06-Jan-25 | -2,874.85 | -13,502.22 | -335.22 | -1,580.12 |
07-Jan-25 | -3,055.16 | -16,557.38 | -355.96 | -1,936.08 |
08-Jan-25 | -1,220.16 | -17,777.54 | -142.34 | -2,078.42 |
09-Jan-25 | -3,729.30 | -21,506.84 | -434.43 | -2,512.85 |
10-Jan-25 | -7,029.38 | -28,536.22 | -818.50 | -3,331.35 |
13-Jan-25 | -1,421.40 | -29,957.62 | -165.48 | -3,496.83 |
14-Jan-25 | -4,276.46 | -34,234.08 | -494.75 | -3,991.58 |
15-Jan-25 | -7,766.43 | -42,000.51 | -897.34 | -4,888.92 |
16-Jan-25 | -4,396.93 | -46,397.44 | -508.31 | -5,397.23 |
17-Jan-25 | -4,341.24 | -50,738.68 | -501.96 | -5,899.19 |
Data Source: NSDL
The big data points that the FPIs will watch out for in next few days include; Trump swearing in and action plan, US Fed policy statement, and the Union Budget 2025-26 presentation on February 01, 2025.
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