Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended January 24, 2025

25 Jan 2025 , 09:44 AM

FPI FLOWS UNDER PRESSURE FOR THIRD WEEK IN A ROW

There was no relenting on FPI outflows in the week to January 24, 2025. After FPI selling of $2.09 Billion and $2.57 Billion in the previous two weeks, the current week saw FPI selling to the tune of $2.28 Billion. That is $6.95 Billion of equity selling by FPIs in the last 3 weeks. This week also, FPIs were net sellers on all 5 trading sessions. The sell-off in the week was largely triggered by the likelihood of Trump tariffs and its impact on trade.

To be fair, two of the critical global macros favoured India during the week. The rupee gained from dollar weakness as it hardened to ₹86.19/$, after almost going as low as ₹87/$ in the previous week. However, Q3FY25 results continued to disappoint the street with top line growth and bottom line growth under pressure for most sectors. However, markets are actually jittery over how the second term of Donald Trump will shape up?

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO JANUARY 24, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(66,602.00)	2,446.45	(64,155.55)	(6,838.14)	(70,993.69)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(66,602.00)	2,446.45	(64,155.55)	(6,838.14)	(70,993.69)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(7,721.88)	283.41	(7,438.47)	(804.47)	(8,242.94)
# – Recent Data is up to January 24, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Negative figures in brackets)

For the just concluded year 2024, almost the entire FPI flows comprised only of debt as equity secondary market outflows, neutralized equity IPO inflows. Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(8,243) Million of net selling overall by FPIs. This included $(7,439) Million of net selling in equities and $(804) Million of net selling in debt. Secondary market selling in equities has been rampant, while FPI flows into IPOs are yet to gather steam.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to January 24, 2025, FPIs remained net sellers to the tune  of $(2,283) Million, slightly lower than previous week. Here is the week that was.

• Trump has called on Putin and Zelensky to end the Russia Ukraine war that has been raging since early 2022. With the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, a truce between Russia and Ukraine should settle oil markets and allow the smooth flow of global trade.
• The $1.5 billion IPO of HDB Financial Services may be in trouble as SEBI has found violations in the allotment of privately placed shares to the employees of its parent. Shares were allotted to more than 50 employees, which is not permitted.
• Bank of Japan has raised the interest rates by 25 bps to 0.50%. Last year, Japan had come out of 14 years of negative interest rates. The lates rate hike is on the back of persistent inflation above 2% and higher wage increases by corporates.
• The real growth problem may be coming from services. For January 2025, the PMI Composite has touched a 14-month low, but the Services PMI has touched a 26-month low. Manufacturing PMI has seen robust output and order flows in January.
• Rupee hardened during the week to ₹86.19/$ after weakness in the dollar index and lower oil prices helped. While RBI has been defending the rupee, FPI outflows continues to be a pressure point, making the rupee very vulnerable.
• The big deals are coming up ahead of the Union Budget. While Reliance is setting up India’s largest AI-driven data centre in partnership with NVIDIA; the Defence Acquisition Council is farming out submarine orders worth ₹75,000 crore to defence companies.
• NSE added 1 crore customers in the last 5 months, taking their total customer tally to 11 crore. Interestingly, NSE registered customers have grown 3.6 times since the pandemic. The first 1 crore customers of NSE took 14 years.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
30-Dec-24	370.17	370.17	43.25	43.25
31-Dec-24	-1,598.78	-1,228.61	-187.07	-143.82
01-Jan-25	-5,351.05	-6,579.66	-624.96	-768.78
02-Jan-25	-597.46	-7,177.12	-69.70	-838.48
03-Jan-25	1,663.60	-5,513.52	193.93	-644.55
06-Jan-25	-2,874.85	-8,388.37	-335.22	-979.77
07-Jan-25	-3,055.16	-11,443.53	-355.96	-1,335.73
08-Jan-25	-1,220.16	-12,663.69	-142.34	-1,478.07
09-Jan-25	-3,729.30	-16,392.99	-434.43	-1,912.50
10-Jan-25	-7,029.38	-23,422.37	-818.50	-2,731.00
13-Jan-25	-1,421.40	-24,843.77	-165.48	-2,896.48
14-Jan-25	-4,276.46	-29,120.23	-494.75	-3,391.23
15-Jan-25	-7,766.43	-36,886.66	-897.34	-4,288.57
16-Jan-25	-4,396.93	-41,283.59	-508.31	-4,796.88
17-Jan-25	-4,341.24	-45,624.83	-501.96	-5,298.84
20-Jan-25	-3,627.11	-49,251.94	-418.91	-5,717.75
21-Jan-25	-3,724.79	-52,976.73	-430.38	-6,148.13
22-Jan-25	-6,327.90	-59,304.63	-731.43	-6,879.56
23-Jan-25	-3,018.05	-62,322.68	-348.64	-7,228.20
24-Jan-25	-3,061.48	-65,384.16	-354.09	-7,582.29

Data Source: NSDL

• In last 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(2,568) Million, $(2086) Million, $(645) Million, $(600) Million, $(114) Million, $(199) Million; and net inflows of $2,886 Million. In the week to January 24, 2025 net FPI equity outflows stood at $(2,283) Million.
• If you look at the last 4 rolling weeks on a cumulative basis, total net FPI outflows from equities were to the tune ₹(65,384) Crore or $(7,582) Million; with the broad trend still veering towards FPI sell-off.

The big data points that the FPIs will watch out for in next few days include; key data on core sector, fiscal deficit, US GDP, US PCE inflation and, of course; Union Budget 2025-26.