Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended July 11, 2025

15 Jul 2025 , 11:10 AM

FPIS SHOW MEASURED OPTIMISM

After infusing $1.52 Billion and $497 Million in the last 2 weeks; the latest week to July 11, 2025 saw FPIs net buyers in equity to the tune of $614 Million. FPIs showed some optimism after the tariff deadline was extended to August 01, 2025. However, India seems to be hardening its stand on the trade deal; and Jane Street is putting pressure on volumes.

During the week, the dollar index showed some strength, bouncing back to 97.87 levels. The week also saw the rupee crossing the ₹86/$ mark for better part of the week and closed just below that level at ₹85.86/$. Brent Crude also picked up from lower levels and after almost two weeks, crude crossed the $70 mark, closing the week at $70.36/bbl on revival hopes.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO JULY 11, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore)	8,466.77	6,123.51	14,590.28	(22,153.36)	(7,563.08)
Jul-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(555.58)	4,394.38	3,838.80	8,761.71	12.600.51
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,00,443.42)	26,382.14	(74,061.28)	21,328.19	(52,733.09)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(11,491.15)	3,061.52	(8,429.63)	2,384.60	(6,045.03)
# – Recent Data is up to July 11, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Overall FPI flows for 2025 are still negative at $(6,045) Million. This comprised $(8,430) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $2,385 Million of net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of $(11,491) Million; offset by IPO buying of $3,062 Million. IPO flows and debt inflows have offset the secondary market selling.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to July 11, 2025, FPIs were net buyers in equities worth $497 Million.

• US Fed minutes were quite explicit that the FOMC did not intend to cut rates before the last quarter of the year. The Fed members continue to be wary about the likely inflationary impact once the tariffs are implemented by the US government.
• TCS announced its results for the first quarter and while the profits were above expectations, the revenues were tad below street estimates. The CEO admitted to a slowdown in order execution, largely due to delays in discretionary spending on Tech.
• For June, Indian mutual funds received net inflows of ₹49,095 Crore with bulk of the flows coming into active equity funds and hybrid funds. SIP flows were at an all-time high in June 2025 at ₹27,269 Crore, while SIP stoppage ratio stabilized at 77.9%.
• There is a sense of urgency among Indian companies to set up rare earth magnet facilities, a key input for EV manufacture. China dominates global supply of rare earth magnets, but they are now restricting supply flows and hurting the supply chain.
• There may be a major respite for oil marketing companies (OMCs) as the government is likely to offer them compensation to the tune of ₹35,000 Crore to offset the under-recoveries in LPG. It will be funded through a higher cess on petrol and diesel.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
16-Jun-25	-373.65	-373.65	-43.40	-43.40
17-Jun-25	-2,647.46	-3,021.11	-307.76	-351.16
18-Jun-25	2,788.27	-232.84	323.85	-27.31
19-Jun-25	-597.59	-830.43	-69.24	-96.55
20-Jun-25	2,040.00	1,209.57	235.29	138.74
23-Jun-25	9,471.58	10,681.15	1,093.55	1,232.29
24-Jun-25	-1,836.29	8,844.86	-211.53	1,020.76
25-Jun-25	-4,336.58	4,508.28	-503.64	517.12
26-Jun-25	-854.15	3,654.13	-99.47	417.65
27-Jun-25	10,662.98	14,317.11	1,243.46	1,661.11
30-Jun-25	5,674.78	19,991.89	663.26	2,324.37
01-Jul-25	829.62	20,821.51	96.98	2,421.35
02-Jul-25	1,105.52	21,927.03	129.12	2,550.47
03-Jul-25	-747.11	21,179.92	-87.19	2,463.28
04-Jul-25	-2,608.57	18,571.35	-305.05	2,158.23
07-Jul-25	691.97	19,263.32	81.04	2,239.27
08-Jul-25	2,771.19	22,034.51	322.93	2,562.20
09-Jul-25	284.23	22,318.74	33.16	2,595.36
10-Jul-25	672.20	22,990.94	78.35	2,673.71
11-Jul-25	839.75	23,830.69	98.13	2,771.84

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net inflows of $497 Million, $1,522 Million, $130 Million, $391 Million; net outflows $(1,025) Million; net inflows $705 Million, and net outflows $(560) Million. The week to July 11, 2025, saw net FPI buying of $614 Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI inflows into equities were to the tune ₹23,831 Crore or $2,772 Million. Debt market flows continue to be mixed from FPIs.

In the coming week, FPI flows are likely to react to several specific factors. There is the inflation and trade data announcement, with the India CPI inflation expected to touch a 6-year low of 2.4%. But the immediate area of interest will be the progress on the Jane Street case and whether India and the US actually manage to sign the trade deal!