Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended June 20, 2025

23 Jun 2025 , 10:58 AM

FPIS NET BUYERS IN THE WEEK, BUT REMAIN TENTATIVE

FPIs were net buyers of $391 Million in equities last week; and this week FPIs net bought just $139 Million. Geopolitical risk and rising crude prices kept equity markets and the FPI sentiments on tenterhooks. FPI flows in debt were totally flat during the week. The immediate concern for FPIs is the trajectory of Israel-Iran conflict and price of Brent Crude.

Dollar index (DXY) at 98.77, continues to remain under pressure. The rupee still weakened to ₹86.58/$ due to risk-off sentiments. Brent Crude spiked to $77.01/bbl; now up 34% from the lows of May 2025. In terms of data flows, India reported sharply lower WPI inflation, lower trade deficit, and benign MPC minutes. Nifty VIX fell sharply to 13.67 levels this week.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO JUNE 20, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(9,100.13)	4,908.09	(4,192,04)	(26,642.13)	(30,834.17)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,17,454.74)	20,772.34	(96,682.40)	8,077.71	(88,604.69)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(13,470.36)	2,407.63	(11,062.73)	838.45	(10,224.28)
# – Recent Data is up to June 20, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(10,224) Million of overall net selling by FPIs. This comprised $(11,063) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $839 Million of net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of $(13,470) Million; offset by IPO buying of $2,408 Million. Overall, a lacklustre week!

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to June 20, 2025, FPIs were net buyers in equities to the tune  of $139 Million. Here is the week that was.

• RBI MPC minutes indicated that rate cuts were done and dusted; and the road ahead would be data driven. Clearly, the MPC members expect tariff and war related impact on growth and inflation; and are adequately preparing for that!
• It was a week of mixed macros in India. Core sector expanded 0.71% in May 2025 while WPI inflation tempered to 0.39%. The good news on core sector was sharp upward revision of April growth, while lower WPI hints at reduced input costs.
• India merchandise deficit for May 2025 was sharply lower than April at $21.8 Billion. However, overall deficit for first 2 months of FY26 is 13.7% higher yoy. That is an early warning signal that trade and tariff constraints were starting to widen deficit.
• It is going to be a busy IPO week. Bulk of the IPO action will be dominated by HDB Financial Services, Kalpataru Estates, and Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases; which will be raising nearly ₹15,000 Crore between them. Other IPOs are relatively smaller.
• N Chandrasekaran of Tata Sons highlighted key disruptive factors facing Indian auto industry. These include geopolitical conflicts, military escalations, skewed tariff regimes, rewritten supply chains, application of AI, and eco-friendly cars.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
26-May-25	593.93	593.93	69.32	69.32
27-May-25	1,586.48	2,180.41	186.86	256.18
28-May-25	952.89	3,133.30	111.68	367.86
29-May-25	4,649.70	7,783.00	542.64	910.50
30-May-25	-1,758.23	6,024.77	-205.64	704.86
02-Jun-25	-5,003.74	1,021.03	-585.38	119.48
03-Jun-25	-2,105.51	-1,084.48	-246.45	-126.97
04-Jun-25	-3,295.02	-4,379.50	-385.57	-512.54
05-Jun-25	1,605.42	-2,774.08	186.76	-325.78
06-Jun-25	49.41	-2,724.67	5.76	-320.02
09-Jun-25	1,265.00	-1,459.67	147.46	-172.56
10-Jun-25	2,412.10	952.43	282.12	109.56
11-Jun-25	3,077.89	4,030.32	359.59	469.15
12-Jun-25	-131.40	3,898.92	-15.38	453.77
13-Jun-25	-3,275.76	623.16	-382.97	70.80
16-Jun-25	-373.65	249.51	-43.40	27.40
17-Jun-25	-2,647.46	-2,397.95	-307.76	-280.36
18-Jun-25	2,788.27	390.32	323.85	43.49
19-Jun-25	-597.59	-207.27	-69.24	-25.75
20-Jun-25	2,040.00	1,832.73	235.29	209.54

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net inflows of $391 million; net outflows $(1,025) Million; net inflows $705 Million, net outflows $(560) Million; and net inflows of $521 Million, $1,658 Million, and $1,180 Million. The week to June 20, 2025, saw net FPI buying worth $139 Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI inflows into equities were to the tune ₹1,833 Crore or $210 Million. Debt markets were relatively quiet for the week.

While macro data points were largely positive, the geopolitical risks continue to determine the direction of FPI flows. Key data points in the coming week include India IIP, fiscal deficit update, FY25 CAD update, US PCE inflation, and the US Q1-GDP update. FPIs will also track Powell’s speech to get a picture of how US monetary policy is likely to shape up!