Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended March 14, 2025

17 Mar 2025 , 11:15 AM

FPIS NET SELLERS, EVEN IN TRUNCATED WEEK

After a week of heavy selling, the FPIs were relatively subdued, selling $(604) Million in equities in the recent truncated week to March 14, 2025. FPIs were net sellers on all 4 trading sessions this week. This marks the fifteenth consecutive week of net selling by FPIs, who have sold more than $16.4 Billion in Indian equities since the start of 2025. In key data flows; CPI inflation was lower than expected and IIP higher than expected.

In other macros, the rupee hardened to a level of ₹86.95/$, on the back of persistent RBI intervention and a spike in the dollar reserves by $15 billion, thanks to dollar liquidity swaps. FPI outflows also slowed. Meanwhile, Brent Crude closed the week at $70.58/bbl; near its recent lows. The oil markets are in a state of flux, awaiting the outcome of US-Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia. The bigger concern is about oil demand amidst a trade slowdown.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO MARCH 14, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(31,669.50)	1,654.49	(30,015.01)	23,204.79	(6,810.22)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,55,322.19)	12,705.89	(1,42,616.30)	34,294.42	(1,08,321.88)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(17,921.90)	1,463.32	(16,458.58)	3,917.95	(12,540.63)
# – Recent Data is up to March 14, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Negative figures in brackets)

Year 2025 has surely begun on a deeply negative note with $(12,541) Million of net selling overall by FPIs. This includes $(16,459) Million of net selling in equities, partially offset by $3,918 Million of net buying in debt. The IPO action has been fairly tepid in recent weeks with most mainboard IPOs kept on hold, till the market conditions improve. This month, the markets will await the decision of the US Federal Reserve on March 18, 2025 and the India Current Account Deficit for Q3, towards the end of March 2025.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to March 14, 2025, FPIs remained net sellers to the tune  of $(604) Million, albeit lower than the previous week. Here is the week that was.

• India consumer inflation fell sharply to 3.61% for February 2025, largely led by food inflation down at 3.75%. However, core inflation did see a spike due to higher gold prices. This does open up the gates for the RBI to cut rates by 25 bps in April 2025.
• If inflation was down, the other positive was that the IIP growth for January 2025, bounced back to 5.01%, largely on the back of a rebound in manufacturing. FY25 cumulative IIP growth has improved by 20 bps to 4.2%.
• US consumer inflation for February 2025 also came in 20 bps lower at 2.8%. While food inflation was marginally higher, core inflation and fuel inflation were lower. However, the CME Fedwatch sees a possible 25 bps rate cut only in June 2025.
• For February 2025, active debt funds saw net outflows, while active equity funds saw net inflows lower by -26.2% MOM at ₹29,303 Crore. While gross SIP flows were robust at ₹25,999 Crore, the SIP stoppage ratio surged to a record high of 122.8% in Feb-25.
• The trade uncertainty continued with India still unsure of the colour of reciprocal tariffs from April 2025. For now, all eyes are on the US-Russia peace meeting Saudi Arabia, but the panic in the market is evident from gold prices crossing $3,000/oz.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
17-Feb-25	-5,023.44	-5,023.44	-578.16	-578.16
18-Feb-25	-2,122.76	-7,146.20	-244.63	-822.79
19-Feb-25	0.00	-7,146.20	0.00	-822.79
20-Feb-25	8,216.28	1,070.08	944.68	121.89
21-Feb-25	-3,507.56	-2,437.48	-404.56	-282.67
24-Feb-25	-3,431.23	-5,868.71	-396.01	-678.68
25-Feb-25	-5,719.21	-11,587.92	-659.72	-1,338.40
26-Feb-25	0.00	-11,587.92	0.00	-1,338.40
27-Feb-25	-2,833.92	-14,421.84	-325.73	-1,664.13
28-Feb-25	1,119.75	-13,302.09	128.39	-1,535.74
03-Mar-25	-12,026.05	-25,328.14	-1,375.97	-2,911.71
04-Mar-25	-4,662.53	-29,990.67	-533.88	-3,445.59
05-Mar-25	-3,536.05	-33,526.72	-404.68	-3,850.27
06-Mar-25	-1,889.48	-35,416.20	-216.96	-4,067.23
07-Mar-25	-2,638.78	-38,054.98	-303.00	-4,370.23
10-Mar-25	-3,214.76	-41,269.74	-369.25	-4,739.48
11-Mar-25	-497.92	-41,767.66	-57.08	-4,796.56
12-Mar-25	-139.15	-41,906.81	-15.93	-4,812.49
13-Mar-25	-1,410.29	-43,317.10	-161.61	-4,974.10
14-Mar-25	0.00	-43,317.10	0.00	-4,974.10

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net outflows $(2,835) Million, $(1,253) Million, $(283) Million, $(1,601) Million, $(841) Million, $(1,604) Million, and $(2,283) Million. In the recent week to March 14, 2025, net FPI equity outflows eased to $(604) Million.
• If you look at the last 4 rolling weeks on a cumulative basis, total net FPI outflows from equities were to the tune ₹(43,317) Crore or $(4,974) Million; with the broad trend still veering towards FPI sell-off.

The next big triggers for the market will come from the upcoming FOMC meeting outcome on March 19, 2025 and the Indian current account deficit (CAD) for Q3FY25; to be announced later this month!