Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended March 28, 2025

1 Apr 2025 , 09:17 AM

FPIS TURN NET BUYERS WITH A BANG

For the week to March 28, 2025, the FPIs turned net buyers to the tune of $3,231 Million. This is the best show in the last 5 months, as year-end inflows and index adjustments boosted FPI positive action in the week. Hopes of another rate cut by the RBI in April also helped matters. During the week; there were two more macro positives for the Indian markets. Rupee hardened to ₹85.56/$, while Brent Crude was steady at $72.76/bbl.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO MARCH 28, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,29,680.46)	13,106.56	(1,16,573.90)	48,043.60	(68,530.30)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(14,931.24)	1,509.80	(13,421.44)	5,506.80	(7,914.64)
# – Recent Data is up to March 28, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Negative figures in brackets)

Year 2025 has surely begun on a negative note with $(7,915) Million of net selling overall by FPIs; although it has improved this week. This includes $(13,422) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $5,507 Million of net buying in debt. IPOs are absent since mid-February. Apart from index shift adjustments, flows were also triggered by RBI rate cut hopes in April.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to March 28, 2025, FPIs turned net buyers to the tune  of $3,231 Million. Here is the week that was.

• India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) for Q3FY25 came in at $11.5 Billion or a modest 1.1% of GDP. However, the Q2FY25 CAD had been revised up to $16.7 Billion or 1.8% of GDP. That hints at potential risks to the CAD in Q3 and Q4 too.
• Trump intensified his tariff action plan during the week with a 25% tariff on all auto and auto component imports. While this is likely to disrupt the global supply chain, it has negative implications for Indian companies like Tata Motors, Bharat Forge, M&M etc.
• In the US, the third and final estimate of Q4 GDP for December 2024 quarter came in at 2.4%, about 10 bps higher than the second estimate. The full year GDP growth at 2.8% for 2024 is at par; as 15 out of 23 industry groups expanded.
• For February 2025, the US PCE inflation came in flat at 2.5%, while the PCE Core inflation came in marginally higher at 2.8%. However, the PCE inflation is now pegging a high probability of 2 rate cuts by December 2025 and 2 more rate cuts by December 2026.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
03-Mar-25	-12,026.05	-12,026.05	-1,375.97	-1,375.97
04-Mar-25	-4,662.53	-16,688.58	-533.88	-1,909.85
05-Mar-25	-3,536.05	-20,224.63	-404.68	-2,314.53
06-Mar-25	-1,889.48	-22,114.11	-216.96	-2,531.49
07-Mar-25	-2,638.78	-24,752.89	-303.00	-2,834.49
10-Mar-25	-3,214.76	-27,967.65	-369.25	-3,203.74
11-Mar-25	-497.92	-28,465.57	-57.08	-3,260.82
12-Mar-25	-139.15	-28,604.72	-15.93	-3,276.75
13-Mar-25	-1,410.29	-30,015.01	-161.61	-3,438.36
14-Mar-25	0.00	-30,015.01	0.00	-3,438.36
17-Mar-25	-857.26	-30,872.27	-98.44	-3,536.80
18-Mar-25	-3,707.30	-34,579.57	-427.15	-3,963.95
19-Mar-25	710.42	-33,869.15	81.97	-3,881.98
20-Mar-25	-1,031.36	-34,900.51	-119.23	-4,001.21
21-Mar-25	3,181.57	-31,718.94	368.65	-3,632.56
24-Mar-25	5,263.22	-26,455.72	610.46	-3,022.10
25-Mar-25	6,205.50	-20,250.22	722.98	-2,299.12
26-Mar-25	5,698.74	-14,551.48	664.73	-1,634.39
27-Mar-25	2,457.91	-12,093.57	286.24	-1,348.15
28-Mar-25	8,120.96	-3,972.61	946.93	-401.22

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net outflows $(194) Million, $(604) Million, $(2,835) Million, $(1,253) Million, $(283) Million, $(1,601) Million, and $(841) Million. The week to March 28, 2025, saw net FPI equity inflows turn around to $3,231 Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were to the tune ₹(3,973) Crore or $(401) Million; a sharp turnaround in just one week.

With most triggers done, the nest big trigger could come if the RBI cuts rates by another 25 bps in its April 2025 meeting.