Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended May 09, 2025

12 May 2025 , 10:23 AM

FPIS STAY NET BUYERS DESPITE RISING WAR RISKS

For the fourth week in a row, FPIs were convincingly net buyers in equities. If you add up the current week FPI infusion of $1,658 Million into equities; FPIs have already infused $5.87 Billion in the last 4 weeks. It does sound rather paradoxical that despite the stressed border situation, FPIs are taking a more perspective view of the Indian markets. Most FPIs expect the war to be short lived, especially with the US also pressing for a truce.

During the week, the Indian rupee came under pressure at ₹85.45/$, but this was largely on the back of the dollar index (DXY) hardening to 100.42 levels, after staying below 100 for more than 3 weeks in a row. At the same time,  the price of Brent Crude also bounced in the week to $63.45/bbl. The bounce in oil prices and the bounce in the dollar index this week were triggered by the signing of the US-UK trade deal, which could be a template for future.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO MAY 09, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar  Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore) #	13,229.71	936.92	14,166.63	(2,589.53)	11,577.10
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,13,207.72)	15,023.76	(98,183.96)	21,040.83	(77,143.13)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(12,969.46)	1,735.95	(11,233.51)	2,356.40	(8,877.11)
# – Recent Data is up to May 09, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Outflows in brackets) 

Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(8,877) Million of net selling overall by FPIs; although there was visible improvement this week, thanks to equity inflows. This comprised of $(11,234) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $2,356 Million of net buying in debt. The week reflected the anchor and QIB inflows in the Ather Energy IPO. FPIs were net sellers in debt to the tune of ₹(24,413) Crore in April 2025 as the narrowing of Indo-US yield spreads triggered FPI outflows from India. In May 2025, FPIs continued to be net sellers in debt to the tune of ₹(2,590) Crore.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to May 09, 2025, FPIs were net buyers to the tune  of $1,658 Million. Here is the week that was.

1. The week was all about geopolitics, with Indian armed forces launching “Operation Sindoor” to avenge Pahalgam and send a strong message. Meanwhile, Pakistan has also retaliated by shutting its airspace entirely to handle a full-fledged war.
2. The geopolitical upheaval caused by the war resulted in the VIX spiking to as high as 22.75 levels during the week. The political uncertainty also led to a sharp sell-off on Thursday and Friday as the war appeared to widen its gamut.
3. The US announced its June monetary policy statement, holding rates at 4.25%-4.50% range. Jerome Powell has ignored repeated pressures from President Trump, as the Fed chair was of the view that the reciprocal tariffs of Trump could be sharply inflationary.
4. The US and UK signed a limited free trade agreement with quota limits. Also, the deal has only focused on very specific areas like biotechnology and artificial intelligence. This offers a template for India when it negotiates its trade agreement with the US.
5. A 60-year long innings of the world’s most famous and most successful investor came to an end. As Warren Buffett hands over the top job to Greg Abel, the big question would be; how Berkshire Hathaway puts its $348 Billion of cash stash to good use.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
14-Apr-25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
15-Apr-25	-2,351.99	-2,351.99	-273.03	-273.03
16-Apr-25	6,798.27	4,446.28	793.36	520.33
17-Apr-25	4,026.02	8,472.30	470.07	990.40
18-Apr-25	0.00	8,472.30	0.00	990.40
21-Apr-25	4,317.31	12,789.61	504.54	1,494.94
22-Apr-25	1,749.56	14,539.17	205.44	1,700.38
23-Apr-25	1,965.18	16,504.35	230.92	1,931.30
24-Apr-25	3,967.25	20,471.60	464.35	2,395.65
25-Apr-25	5,425.58	25,897.18	634.50	3,030.15
28-Apr-25	5,040.37	30,937.55	588.98	3,619.13
29-Apr-25	2,509.65	33,447.20	294.57	3,913.70
30-Apr-25	2,351.23	35,798.43	275.97	4,189.67
01-May-25	0.00	35,798.43	0.00	4,189.67
02-May-25	173.39	35,971.82	20.39	4,210.06
05-May-25	2,806.51	38,778.33	334.68	4,544.74
06-May-25	1,796.13	40,574.46	213.23	4,757.97
07-May-25	4,011.45	44,585.91	474.48	5,232.45
08-May-25	2,951.95	47,537.86	349.05	5,581.50
09-May-25	2,427.20	49,965.06	286.01	5,867.51

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net inflows of $1,180 Million, $2,040 Million, $990 Million; net outflows of $(2,470) Million, $(1,210) Million; net inflows of $3,231 Million; and net outflows of $(194) Million. The week to May 09, 2025, saw FPIs net buying equities to the tune of $1,658 Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI inflows into equities were to the tune ₹49,965 Crore or $5,868 Million; with flows positive, despite the geopolitical risks.

In key data points ahead, the focus will be on the India CPI Inflation, India trade deficit, and the US inflation. However, the overpowering story for this week remains the war-related developments on the India-Pakistan border.