Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended May 30, 2025

2 Jun 2025 , 11:14 AM

FPIS INFUSE $3.5 BILLION INTO BONDS ON 30-MAY

The previous week saw FPIs net selling $(560) Million in equities. This week, FPIs are back as net buyers in equity to the tune of $705 Million; but the real story was the $3.50 Billion infusion into debt by FPIs. With hostility between Iran and Israel abating, FPIs focused less on risk and more on returns. Fear factor is down; with VIX tapering from 17.28 to 16.08.

The dollar index (DXY) weakened to 99.40, but the rupee saw some pressure at ₹85.60/$ due to tariff concerns post the doubling of steel tariffs by the US. Brent Crude fell to $62.60/bbl, after the OPEC Plus hinted at increasing their oil supply from May to well beyond the promised 4.11 Lakh bpd. All eyes are on the RBI in the June monetary policy.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO MAY 30, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore) #	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,08,354.71)	15,864.25	(92,490.36)	34,719.84	(57,770.52)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(12,401.89)	1,834.48	(10,567.41)	3,954.60	(6,612.81)
# – Recent Data is up to May 30, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Year 2025 began on a negative note with $(6,613) Million of overall net selling by FPIs; with some sharp buying in equity and debt this week. This comprised $(10,568) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $3,955 Million of net buying in debt. Bulk of the FPI inflows came in on Thursday and Friday. With fiscal deficit in check, rate cut hopes, and simplified FPI norms in debt; the week saw close to $3.5 billion of FPI infusion into debt paper.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to May 30, 2025, FPIs were net buyers in equities to the tune  of $705 Million. Here is the week that was.

• India FY25 GDP came in better than expected at 6.5%. This was supported by a sharp 7.4% GDP growth in the fourth quarter. In FY25, agricultural has done much better than the previous year. The pressure is on manufacturing due to capex deficit.
• The Controller General of Accounts (CGA) announced FY25 fiscal deficit at 100.5% of full year target. However, the full year nominal GDP stood at above Rs330 Trillion, which led to fiscal deficit being contained at 4.77% of GDP, well under the 4.8% target.
• IIP growth for April came in sharply lower at 2.7%, although this was more of optics due to April IIP growth being upgraded from 3.00% to 3.94%. While mining and electricity baskets lagged in output, the positive show came from heavyweight manufacturing.
• The Fed minutes published during the week, pertaining to the May 2025 FOMC meet, clearly underlined stagflation risk. Powell has underlined that the full impact of tariffs are hard to fathom and hence Fed would proceed cautiously on further rate cuts.
• The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) put out two more key data points. Q12025 GDP was slightly better, but still in the negative at -0.2%. PCE inflation fell sharply in April to 2.1%; having now fallen 50 bps from two months ago.
• Donald Trump has, once again, set the cat among the pigeons by doubling the tariffs on steel and aluminium entering the US from 25% to 50%. This is likely to discourage metal exports by other countries to the US. Trump is keen to protect US jobs.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
05-May-25	2,806.51	2,806.51	334.68	334.68
06-May-25	1,796.13	4,602.64	213.23	547.91
07-May-25	4,011.45	8,614.09	474.48	1,022.39
08-May-25	2,951.95	11,566.04	349.05	1,371.44
09-May-25	2,427.20	13,993.24	286.01	1,657.45
12-May-25	0.00	13,993.24	0.00	1,657.45
13-May-25	-2,388.23	11,605.01	-278.85	1,378.60
14-May-25	164.30	11,769.31	19.35	1,397.95
15-May-25	930.55	12,699.86	109.09	1,507.04
16-May-25	5,746.53	18,446.39	671.42	2,178.46
19-May-25	7,483.41	25,929.80	874.57	3,053.03
20-May-25	937.83	26,867.63	109.69	3,162.72
21-May-25	-10,041.38	16,826.25	-1,175.01	1,987.71
22-May-25	2,272.24	19,098.49	265.59	2,253.30
23-May-25	-5,436.42	13,662.07	-634.61	1,618.69
26-May-25	593.93	14,256.00	69.32	1,688.01
27-May-25	1,586.48	15,842.48	186.86	1,874.87
28-May-25	952.89	16,795.37	111.68	1,986.55
29-May-25	4,649.70	21,445.07	542.64	2,529.19
30-May-25	-1,758.23	19,686.84	-205.64	2,323.55

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(560) Million; net inflows of $521 Million, $1,658 Million, $1,180 Million, $2,040 Million, $990 Million; and net outflows of $(2,470) Million. The week to May 30, 2025, saw net FPI buying worth $705 Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI inflows into equities were to the tune ₹19,687 Crore or $2,324 Million. The anchor IPO flows will be reflected next week.

There are 2 key data points next week. RBI will announce its monetary policy, with a strong likelihood of another 25 bps rate cut. In addition, the US will announce the unemployment rate, which is expected to hover around 4.2%. In the short term, the doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminium exports to the US to 50%, will be the game changer.