Weekly Musings – Index performance for week ended December 13, 2024

16 Dec 2024 , 10:19 AM

FRONTLINE INDICES UP; BUT MARKETS RELATIVELY MIXED

The data points were fairly interesting during the week. The consumer inflation in India came in lower at 5.48% against 6.21% for the previous month. While there are concerns over core inflation and the impact of base effect, the fact is that inflation has come down. Secondly, the IIP growth for October also bounced further from 3.09% to 3.45%; a far cry from the IIP contraction in the month of August. More importantly, it is manufacturing that is leading the IIP growth; both in YOY terms and in MOM terms. If that trend is sustained, then it is positive for the GDP growth in Q3FY25 too. For the week ended December 13, 2024, the Nifty gained 37 bps and Sensex gained 76 bps.

The market rally in the week was largely driven by IT stocks which benefited substantially from the strength of the dollar and the pressure on the Indian rupee. The markets were broadly divided. A total of 6 sectors gained more than 1% in the week, while another 6 sectors fell more than 1% during the week. Energy stocks continued to remain under pressure amidst oil supply volatility while FMCG stocks are under pressure on account of weak urban demand and pressure on margins. The VIX tapered further in the week to around the 13 levels, but the extent of global risks are just too high now.

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX – FRIDAY RALLY HELPS SENSEX CLOSE IN THE GREEN

The table captures the movement of the BSE SENSEX 30 for the week to December 13, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
13-Dec-24	81,212.45	82,213.92	80,082.82	82,133.12
12-Dec-24	81,476.76	81,680.97	81,211.64	81,289.96
11-Dec-24	81,568.39	81,742.37	81,383.42	81,526.14
10-Dec-24	81,575.96	81,726.34	81,182.69	81,510.05
09-Dec-24	81,602.58	81,783.28	81,411.55	81,508.46
06-Dec-24	81,575.96	81,726.34	81,182.69	81,510.05
		Weekly Returns		+0.76%

Data Source: BSE

A smart 843 points rally in the BSE Sensex on Friday, resulted in a weekly close with gains of 633 points for the week. The overall gains in the Sensex was just about 76 bps for the week. The undertone of the Sensex, through the week, was driven by modest FPI outflows of $199 Million. For the week, Sensex touched a high of 82,214 and a low of 80,083; closing just above the psychological level of 82,000 for the week.

NIFTY 50 INDEX – IT RALLY HELPS NIFTY CLOSE HIGHER

The table captures the movement of Nifty 50 index in the week to December 13, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
13-Dec-24	24,498.35	24,792.30	24,180.80	24,768.30
12-Dec-24	24,604.45	24,675.25	24,527.95	24,548.70
11-Dec-24	24,620.50	24,691.75	24,583.85	24,641.80
10-Dec-24	24,652.65	24,677.80	24,510.65	24,610.05
09-Dec-24	24,633.90	24,705.00	24,580.05	24,619.00
06-Dec-24	24,729.45	24,751.05	24,620.50	24,677.80
		Weekly Returns		+0.37%

Data Source: NSE

It was a week of modest gains for the Nifty 50 at 37 basis points or 91 points for the week. The sectoral picture was mixed with IT and Banks in the positive while oil & gas, autos and FMCG were under pressure. Banks were flat after the new RBI governor took charge, raising hopes that he would expedite rate cuts. With just about modest FPI selling of $199 Million, the Nifty just closed below the psychological 25,000 levels. Next week could be decisive.

NIFTY MID-CAP 100 INDEX –RECOVERY CONTINUES IN MID-CAPS

The table captures the movement of Nifty Mid-Cap 100 in the week to December 13, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
13-Dec-24	58,877.50	59,024.40	58,012.10	58,991.55
12-Dec-24	59,335.25	59,417.20	58,958.15	59,021.70
11-Dec-24	59,135.90	59,347.10	59,102.65	59,292.95
10-Dec-24	59,062.60	59,173.55	58,834.35	59,135.40
09-Dec-24	58,675.05	59,083.65	58,649.95	58,998.75
06-Dec-24	58,571.70	58,768.75	58,307.55	58,704.60
		Weekly Returns		+0.49%

Data Source: NSE

It was a week when the mid-cap index built on the recovery of the previous weeks. It was a week of steady value build-up for Nifty Mid-Cap 100 with gains of 49 basis points or 287 points for the week. However, the weakness in the rupee continues to be an overhang and the oil price rally in the week also limited the gains for mid-cap stocks. For the week, Nifty Mid-Cap 100 touched a high of 58,958 and low of 58,012.

NIFTY SMALL-CAP 100 INDEX – UNDER PRESSURE IN THE WEEK

The table captures movement of Nifty Small Cap 100 in the week to December 13, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
13-Dec-24	19,425.00	19,439.35	19,047.85	19,407.30
12-Dec-24	19,694.00	19,716.20	19,447.70	19,466.55
11-Dec-24	19,631.35	19,698.95	19,610.85	19,657.35
10-Dec-24	19,575.25	19,634.80	19,516.45	19,583.20
09-Dec-24	19,521.55	19,578.75	19,456.85	19,528.60
06-Dec-24	19,377.55	19,514.90	19,285.90	19,492.10
		Weekly Returns		-0.44%

Data Source: NSE

Nifty Small Cap 100 index lost -44 bps or -85 points for the week. Alpha hunting is still happening, but has taken a back seat amidst the global uncertainty. This week, the Nifty Small Cap index touched a high of 19,716 levels and a low of 19,047. The small cap index has also been under pressure due to a slew of stocks being under SEBI surveillance.

BANK NIFTY INDEX – NEW RBI GOVERNOR RAISES RATE CUT HOPES

The table below captures the movement of BANKNIFTY in the week to December 13, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
13-Dec-24	53,109.80	53,654.00	52,264.55	53,583.80
12-Dec-24	53,201.00	53,537.45	53,174.40	53,216.45
11-Dec-24	53,459.30	53,648.05	53,302.15	53,391.35
10-Dec-24	53,450.05	53,624.05	53,302.65	53,577.70
09-Dec-24	53,380.75	53,775.10	53,326.40	53,407.75
06-Dec-24	53,634.20	53,868.50	53,160.65	53,509.50
		Weekly Returns		+0.14%

Data Source: NSE

Even as the RBI held status quo in December and experts do not see a rate cut in February 2025, there is some hope after the change of guard. The new RBI governor, Sanjay Malhotra, is expected to adopt a more dovish approach, although there is no confirmation to that effect. For the week, Bank Nifty was up 14 basis points or 74 points. While the CRR cut boosted banks last week, NIMs are back to being a major concern. During the week, Bank Nifty touched a high of 53,775 and a low of 52,264 levels.

NIFTY IT INDEX – REMAINS THE KING OF TOUGH TIMES

The table captures the movement of Nifty IT index in the week to December 13, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
13-Dec-24	45,496.95	46,088.90	45,073.50	45,995.80
12-Dec-24	45,409.70	46,002.65	45,375.50	45,701.65
11-Dec-24	45,238.80	45,398.95	45,046.60	45,350.35
10-Dec-24	44,848.50	45,377.75	44,824.15	45,199.75
09-Dec-24	44,648.30	44,913.30	44,477.15	44,832.00
06-Dec-24	44,780.45	44,852.30	44,519.70	44,716.05
		Weekly Returns		+2.86%

Data Source: NSE

Nifty IT index has been on a roll. After gaining over 11% in the last 4 weeks, the IT index added another 286 bps in the current week. The index gained 1,280 points for the week. IT stocks stand to gain from the Yuan weakness, dollar strength, Trump 2.0, and hopes that tech spending will revive in a big way. During the week, Nifty IT index touched a high of 46,089 and low of 44,477 levels, making higher highs and lows.

NIFTY OIL & GAS INDEX – OIL VOLATILITY SETS LIMIT TO THE SECTOR

The table captures the Nifty Oil & Gas index for the week to December 13, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
13-Dec-24	11,125.25	11,186.00	10,944.35	11,160.30
12-Dec-24	11,206.95	11,235.65	11,108.50	11,122.25
11-Dec-24	11,225.15	11,283.25	11,211.90	11,224.90
10-Dec-24	11,227.80	11,269.90	11,162.10	11,222.35
09-Dec-24	11,298.95	11,336.80	11,240.25	11,251.70
06-Dec-24	11,341.70	11,404.00	11,304.95	11,322.60
		Weekly Returns		-1.43%

Data Source: NSE

In a way, the oil & gas index has been pressured by Reliance Industries, which is likely to report negative returns after almost 10 years. The uncertainty in Syria and the recent bounce in crude prices has kept oil stocks on tenterhooks. This week, the oil & gas index closed with losses of -143 basis points or -162 points on the index. With the oil prices being volatile, there are also concerns over the sustainable gross refining margins (GRMs). For the week to December 13, 2024, the Oil & Gas index touched a high of 11,337 and a low of 10,944.

NIFTY AUTO INDEX – AUTOS CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY

The table captures the movement of Nifty Auto index in the week to December 13, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
13-Dec-24	23,617.75	23,803.75	23,292.10	23,773.10
12-Dec-24	23,891.80	23,908.10	23,615.30	23,660.30
11-Dec-24	23,779.50	23,947.20	23,757.10	23,851.85
10-Dec-24	23,806.80	23,838.00	23,635.40	23,767.05
09-Dec-24	23,948.50	23,986.05	23,750.60	23,775.05
06-Dec-24	23,799.75	23,982.50	23,722.85	23,960.25
		Weekly Returns		-0.78%

Data Source: NSE

Latest FADA data reveals that while the sales growth has been robust for 2-wheelers and for tractors; the growth I four passengers has contracted by over 14%. That has been an overhang for auto stocks. This week the auto index closed -78 bps lower or -187 points down for the week. Auto Index made a weekly high of 23,947 and a low of 23,292; with the investors cautious as we come to the end of the festive season.

NIFTY FMCG INDEX – TOP LINE AND MARGIN CONCERNS

The table captures the movement of Nifty FMCG index in the week to December 13, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
13-Dec-24	56,088.70	56,997.45	55,455.15	56,869.40
12-Dec-24	56,701.15	56,885.75	56,059.55	56,146.70
11-Dec-24	56,716.30	56,898.70	56,514.45	56,766.80
10-Dec-24	56,582.80	56,697.40	56,383.80	56,530.25
09-Dec-24	57,481.95	57,562.80	56,305.95	56,460.60
06-Dec-24	57,742.90	57,997.55	57,602.10	57,744.30
		Weekly Returns		-1.52%

Data Source: NSE

FMCG stocks have been under additional pressure after GCPL guided for a negative impact of weak offtake on FMCG stocks. For the previous week, the FMCG index was down -1.52% or -875 points. The Q3 period is likely to be a tough quarter for most FMCG players. During the week, the FMCG Index touched a high of 57,563 and a low of 55,455.The pressure of weak urban consumption is visible.