Weekly Musings – Index performance for week ended July 11, 2025

15 Jul 2025 , 11:11 AM

FPIs were net buyers in equities worth $614 Million this week. Amidst caution in the markets, the VIX tapered lower to 11.82 levels. Regarding data flows; Fed minutes hint at rate cuts towards the end of the year, while India MF inflows were once again robust.

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX – FALLS AMIDST MACRO HEADWINDS

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
11-Jul-25	82,820.76	83,040.74	82,442.25	82,500.47
10-Jul-25	83,658.20	83,742.28	83,134.97	83,190.28
09-Jul-25	83,625.89	83,781.36	83,382.28	83,536.08
08-Jul-25	83,387.03	83,812.31	83,320.95	83,712.51
07-Jul-25	83,398.08	83,516.82	83,262.23	83,442.50
04-Jul-25	83,306.81	83,477.86	83,015.83	83,432.89
		Weekly Returns		-1.12%

Data Source: BSE

For the week, Sensex fell -932 points or -1.12%. There was caution due to headwinds at a macro level like the Jane Street case and the pending Indo-US trade deal. Sensex touched a weekly high of 83,812 and a low of 82,442; closing very near the lowest point of the week.

NIFTY 50 INDEX – EVENT RISKS DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
11-Jul-25	25,255.50	25,322.45	25,129.00	25,149.85
10-Jul-25	25,511.65	25,524.05	25,340.45	25,355.25
09-Jul-25	25,514.60	25,548.70	25,424.35	25,476.10
08-Jul-25	25,427.85	25,548.05	25,424.15	25,522.50
07-Jul-25	25,450.45	25,489.80	25,407.25	25,461.30
04-Jul-25	25,428.85	25,470.25	25,331.65	25,461.00
		Weekly Returns		-1.22%

Data Source: NSE

For the second week in a row, Nifty was down despite FPI inflows. Market uncertainty and valuation concerns were primary. Nifty gave up -311 points or -1.22%, as there was selling pressure at higher levels. Nifty touched a weekly high of 25,549 and low of 25,129.

NIFTY MID-CAP 100 INDEX – MACRO RISKS FINALLY PILE UP

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
11-Jul-25	59,104.15	59,232.95	58,493.05	58,642.20
10-Jul-25	59,425.70	59,493.45	58,963.05	59,159.95
09-Jul-25	59,474.95	59,560.45	59,239.05	59,339.60
08-Jul-25	59,536.75	59,669.35	58,975.75	59,415.45
07-Jul-25	59,711.15	59,758.05	59,420.45	59,515.75
04-Jul-25	59,782.60	59,899.70	59,349.65	59,677.75
		Weekly Returns		-1.74%

Data Source: NSE

Last week, mid-caps escaped macro risks, but this week there was no escaping. Nifty Mid-cap touched a weekly high of 59,758 and low of 58,493. Mid-caps also lost out in the week due to a spike in crude oil prices and weakness in the Indian rupee.

NIFTY SMALL CAP 100 INDEX – ALPHA HUNTING TAKES A BACK SEAT

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
11-Jul-25	18,925.65	18,971.35	18,730.60	18,763.45
10-Jul-25	19,066.95	19,091.55	18,902.55	18,956.25
09-Jul-25	18,927.70	19,037.90	18,907.05	19,007.40
08-Jul-25	18,958.15	19,053.75	18,751.45	18,895.20
07-Jul-25	19,026.80	19,060.90	18,913.60	18,950.15
04-Jul-25	19,046.25	19,079.05	18,933.90	19,033.05
		Weekly Returns		-1.42%

Data Source: NSE

Small cap index also fell by -1.42%; as the liquidity draught caused by the Jane Street case is hitting small caps hard. Nifty Small-cap index touched a weekly high of 19,092 and a low of 18,731. Alpha hunting appears to have taken a back seat for now.

BANK NIFTY INDEX – PRIVATE BANKS STAND OUT

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
11-Jul-25	56,843.45	57,091.05	56,607.75	57,031.90
10-Jul-25	57,339.75	57,363.70	56,886.60	56,791.95
09-Jul-25	57,199.75	57,290.65	57,037.90	56,999.20
08-Jul-25	56,942.55	57,303.30	56,923.05	57,459.45
07-Jul-25	56,938.70	57,152.20	56,838.55	57,312.75
04-Jul-25	56,825.25	57,075.10	56,623.60	57,443.90
		Weekly Returns		-0.49%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, Nifty Bank fell -412 points or -0.49, as private banks stood out supported by positive guidance from HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank. Bank Nifty touched weekly high of 57,364 and low of 56,608. However, PSU banks struggled during the week.

NIFTY IT INDEX – TAKES A KNOCK AFTER TCS RESULTS

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
11-Jul-25	37,702.55	37,990.80	37,558.10	37,693.25
10-Jul-25	38,713.80	38,715.20	38,197.35	38,376.65
09-Jul-25	38,986.80	38,999.75	38,540.65	38,680.85
08-Jul-25	38,837.00	39,238.20	38,732.55	38,983.25
07-Jul-25	39,146.15	39,176.65	38,799.70	38,866.95
04-Jul-25	38,968.10	39,191.90	38,784.40	39,166.55
		Weekly Returns		-3.76%

Data Source: NSE

Dollar was strong this week, but TCS results did raise some concerns on business flows. IT Index touched a weekly high of 39,238 and a low of 37,558. Most of the pressure was seen after TCS struggled to grow top line. Other big IT results are expected in next 2 weeks.

NIFTY OIL & GAS INDEX – CRUDE SPIKE HITS OIL STOCKS

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
11-Jul-25	11,920.35	11,922.05	11,736.70	11,759.50
10-Jul-25	11,949.25	11,963.10	11,864.65	11,909.70
09-Jul-25	12,068.00	12,083.80	11,891.40	11,913.55
08-Jul-25	12,051.55	12,099.55	12,031.00	12,064.20
07-Jul-25	12,020.45	12,084.80	12,013.50	12,051.85
04-Jul-25	11,923.45	12,016.05	11,870.75	12,002.35
		Weekly Returns		-2.02%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, Nifty Oil & Gas Index fell -2.02%. Brent prices bounced above $70/bbl and that is likely to hit downstream players. However, that would be offset next week with the government offering OMCs a compensation of ₹35,000 Crore for LPG under-recoveries.

NIFTY FMCG INDEX – URBAN DEMAND OUTLOOK GRATIFIES MARKETS

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
11-Jul-25	56,023.35	56,349.90	55,792.40	55,910.25
10-Jul-25	56,026.60	56,074.85	55,576.70	55,628.20
09-Jul-25	55,526.40	56,028.15	55,523.45	55,946.20
08-Jul-25	55,624.35	55,753.00	55,283.00	55,504.00
07-Jul-25	54,874.00	55,691.75	54,859.95	55,652.85
04-Jul-25	54,699.20	54,799.35	54,550.10	54,735.60
		Weekly Returns		+2.15%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, FMCG index closed +2.15% higher and was the top gaining sector. Urban demand guidance has been strong, although margins may hold the key. Nifty FMCG Index touched weekly high of 56,350 and low of 54,860 levels, shining out for the week.