RBI MPC policy review: Kartik Jain, MD & CEO, Shriram AMC

7 Jun 2024 , 03:06 PM

We had expected RBI to keep interest rates unchanged. Domestic economy is on a growth path as FY24 GDP came in at 8.2%, better than estimates. Recovery is witnessed in all spheres – private consumption, investment activities and exports. Although India’s retail inflation eased to 4.83% in April 2024, an 11-month low, it is still higher than the targeted range. Normal monsoon should boost agricultural activities thereby cooling down inflation further. Moreover, the RBI will also monitor closely the policy decisions adopted by the new coalition government at the Centre and its impact on the domestic economy. RBI will resort to any rate reduction only when there is increasing comfort on the inflation outlook (targeted range of 4.5%) or if Fed cuts interest rates.