Oil Prices Rise but 2025 Surplus Fears Weigh

13 Dec 2024 , 09:18 AM

Friday saw a slight decline in oil prices as investors, anticipating another Federal Reserve interest rate decrease next week, concentrated on a projection of plentiful supply and dismissed hopes of increased demand from Chinese stimulus measures next year.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 7 cents at $69.95 a barrel, while Brent crude futures had slipped 8 cents to $73.33 a barrel.

According to the International Energy Agency, non-OPEC+ countries—led by the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, and Argentina—will increase supply by roughly 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the upcoming year.

In 2025, three of Canada’s largest oil companies anticipate increased output. Goldman Sachs predicts that Lower 48 shale oil output would increase by 600,000 barrels per day in 2025, building on record production in the United States. However, if Brent drops below $70 per barrel, the expansion may decelerate.

However, worries about supply disruption from harsher sanctions on Iran and Russia, together with optimism that Chinese stimulus measures will boost demand at the world’s second-largest oil consumer, keep Brent and WTI on track to record a weekly rise of over 3%.

For the first time in seven months, Chinese crude imports increased annually in November due to stockpiling and declining prices.

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