Energy Preview: OPEC Keeps Global Oil Consumption Estimates Unchanged For 2022

19 Jan 2022 , 08:51 AM

OPEC stated in its monthly update for January 2022 that world oil demand growth in 2021 is unchanged from last month’s assessment at 5.7 mb/d to average 96.6 mb/d. An upward revision in 4Q21, amid better-than-anticipated transportation fuel consumption in the OECD, was offset by a downward revision in 3Q21 given the latest actual data. Oil demand growth in the OECD is estimated to have averaged 2.5 mb/d and, in the non-OECD region, oil demand growth is estimated at 3.1 mb/d for the year. In 2022, the forecast for world oil demand growth also remains unchanged at 4.2 mb/d, with total global consumption at 100.8 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.8 mb/d, while in the non-OECD oil demand is projected to increase by 2.3 mb/d. While the impact of the Omicron variant is projected to be mild and short-lived, uncertainties remain regarding new variants and renewed mobility restrictions, amid an otherwise steady global economic recovery.

Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2021 remains unchanged at around 0.7 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 63.6 mb/d. Upward revisions in the US and Kazakhstan were offset by downward adjustments to Brazil, Canada, Ecuador and Norway. The 2021 oil supply estimate primarily sees growth in Canada, Russia, China, the US, Guyana, Norway, Argentina and Qatar, while output is expected to have declined in the UK, Brazil, Colombia and Indonesia. Similarly, the non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2022 is also unchanged at around 3.0 mb/d, to average 66.7 mb/d.

Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 remains unchanged from the previous month to stand at 27.8 mb/d, around 4.9 mb/d higher than in 2020. Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 also remains unchanged from the previous month to stand at 28.9 mb/d, around 1.0 mb/d higher than in 2021.

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