Daily Market Strategy - Subdued start! Data interpretation time for market

India Infoline News Service | Mumbai | February 12, 2015 08:32 IST

The outlook is a subdued start. The global indices are on a lull. Eurozone finance ministers could not really solve their differences with Greece.

It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. -  Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
 
The market managed to hold on to gains for the last two days minimizing any sentiment damage following the BJP drubbing in New Delhi elections. For now the Aam Aadmi Party says it will not contest assembly elections in other states. With political events as good as over as the market is concerned, the focus will now shift to the Union budget.
 
For the day a lot of attention could be on macro data. The government has changed the base year for calculating CPI to 2012 from 2010 and the first monthly estimate of retail inflation using the new series will be out today. GDP numbers were revised recently. The rebasing has caused some amount of confusion and bewilderment among economists. There are significant interpretational issues for the new series too. No immediate impact of higher growth estimates are expected on either the fiscal or monetary policy. Industrial production (IIP) data for December 2014 will also be released today.
 
The outlook is a subdued start. The global indices are on a lull. Eurozone finance ministers could not really solve their differences with Greece. The ministers will now meet on Monday. Greece wants to overhaul 30% of its bailout obligations while EU ministers want Greece to abide by existing terms. Greece's government says conditions of the €240bn bailout have impoverished Greece.
 
US stocks ended flat.  Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 1.5% higher while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and China’s Shanghai are marginally lower.
 
The much-feared general anti avoidance rules (GAAR) could be deferred by about two years so that business sentiment is allowed to improve in India but will need to be rolled out in some form or the other by 2017, in sync with the international framework on preventing treaty abuse that's been accepted by the G20, says a report.
 
In a relief for Jindal Steel and Power Ltd (JSPL) and its promoter Naveen Jindal, Delhi High Court directed a technical committee to review its own decision to change the end-use of two coal blocks earlier allotted to the company and removing the mines from the auction.
 
The Board of Directors of Grasim Industries Limited approved the proposed merger of Aditya Birla Chemicals (India) Limited (“ABCIL”), an Aditya Birla Group Company with Grasim. The swap ratio approved by the Board is 1 (one) share of Rs. 10 each of Grasim for every 16 (sixteen) shares of Rs. 10 each of ABCIL. Grasim will issue 14.62 Lakh new shares, which will increase its share capital to Rs. 93.31 crore.
 
Shares of Wockhardt surged after the company reported 14% increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 347 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2014 (Q3).
 
Shares of NCC Ltd hit 20% upper circuit at Rs76 after reporting rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 25.57 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2014.
 
Ricoh India has smartly moved higher to hit 20% upper circuit in the early noon deals after investors quickly picked-up shares of the company on the back of strong Q3 numbers.
 
Shares of Alok Industries Ltd will be in focus after the company has posted a net profit of Rs. 258.60 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2014 as compared to Rs. 982.90 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2013. 
 
Fortis Healthcare scaled 20% to end at 52-week high of Rs 138.90. During the trading session, the stock had touched a low of Rs 117. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala bought 34,85,075 shares of Fortis Healthcare through bulk deal on the BSE.
 
Events: Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report; BOE's Governor Carney speech, India's Cumulative Industrial Output (Dec); Manufacturing Output (Dec); Industrial Output (Dec) 
 
Results Watch: Bank of India, Reliance Capital, BHEL, Coal India, Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care, CESC, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Shipping Corporation, Page Industries, Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation, Neyveli Lignite Corporation, Gujarat Gas, Hindalco Industries, Glaxosmithkline Pharma, Max India, MRF, Sadbhav Engineering, Gitanjali Gems, Cipla Ltd, Indraprastha Gas, Tata Communications, Indiabulls Real Estate, Amtek Auto, Sobha Ltd, MTNL, Bajaj Electricals, Finolex Cables, Future Retail, Ahmednagar Forgings, Ahluwalia Contracts, Elder Pharma, Jindal Stainless, Advent Computer, Cosmo Ferrites, Cravatex, Capital Trade Links, Datamatics Global Services, DFL Infrastructure, Dhanlaxmi Bank, Aagam Capital, ACE Software Exports, ACI Infocom, Adarsh Mercantile, Adhunik Industries, ADI Finechem, Allied Digital Services, Aris International, Aravali Securities, Aplab, Anjani Synthetics, Amtek India, Almondz Global Securities, Allcargo Logistics, Aksh Optifibre, Bajaj Steel Industries, BAG Films, Bafna Pharma, ATN International, Asian Tea, Asahi India, BNR Udyog, BN Rathi Securities, Bliss GVS Pharma, Blue Circle Services, Blazon Marbles, Black Rose Industries, Birla Precision Technologies, Bharat Rasayan, Bedmutha Industries, Bal Pharma, BLB Ltd, BP Capital, Bombay Rayon Fashions, Bright Brothers, BSEL Infrastructure Realty, Cantabil Retail India, Carnation Industries, Claris Lifesciences, Disa India, Eureka Industries, Ecoplast, Dollex Industries, Dynamic Portfolio Management, Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore, FIEM Industries, Gillette India, GG Dandekar Machine Works, Garware Polyester, Garware Synthetics, Global Infratech & Finance, GFL Financials India, GMM Pfaudler, Globus Constructors & Developers, Gontermann-Peipers (India), Goldiam International, Gold Coin Health Foods, Gokak Textiles, Gujarat Containers, GPT Infraprojects, Gol Offshore, Hisar Metal, Hindustan Wires, Hindustan Everest Tools, Hinafil India, Hella India Lighting, Himadri Chemicals, Hisar Spinning Mills, Hi-Tech Gears, Hitech Plast, Hittco Tools, Honda Siel Power, HP Cotton, Hubtown Ltd, Hariyana Ship Breakers, HRB Floriculture, ISMT Ltd, ISF Ltd, IO System, International Conveyors, Integra Garments, Insta Finance, Innocorp, Infinite Computer, Indsoya, J Kumar Infraprojects, Jayant Agro-Organics, Jaidka Industries, ISF Ltd, ISMT Ltd, Jackson Investments, JMD Telefilms, Joonktollee Tea, Kachchh Minerals, Kaiser Corporation, Kemp Company, Kallam Spinning Mills, Kesoram Industries, Khoobsurat Ltd, Lanco Infratech, Lahoti Overseas, KNR Constructions, KMF Builders, Kilburn Engineering, Kinetic Engineering, Kilitch Drugs, Kilburn Office Automation, KIFS Financial Services, Mafatlal Industries, Mangalam Timber Products, Mahaan Foods, Magnum Ventures, Lotus Chocolate, Moschip Semiconductor Technology, Moryo Industries, Mold-tek Technologies, Mahalaxmi Rubtech, Mega Corporation, Modern Steels, Mcdowell Holdings, Mayur Uniquoters, Nu Tek India, Nutech Global, Nrb Bearings, National Oxygen, Newtime Infrastructure, North Eastern Carrying Corporation Ltd, Nda Securities, NCC Finance, Mukta Arts, Oswal Agro Mills, Ojas Asset Reconstruction, Orissa Minerals Development, Orient Press, Ravi Kumar Distilleries, Rasi Electrodes, Rander Corporation, Quasar India, Quantum Build-Tech, Purshottam Investofin, Punjab Communications, Shri Aster Silicates, Shrenuj, Scope Industries (India), Savera Industries, Royal India Corporation, Steelco Gujarat, Simplex Industries, Shriram EPC, Suchitra Finance and Triveni Engineering.
 
Trends in FII flows: The FIIs were net sellers of Rs3.71bn in the cash segment on Wednesday. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were the net buyers of Rs1.47bn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.
 
Global Data: Consumer Inflation Expectation (Feb) AUD, RICS Housing Price Balance (Jan) GBP, Employment Change s.a. (Jan) AUD, Fulltime employment (Jan) AUD, Participation Rate (Jan) AUD, Part-time employment (Jan) AUD, Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jan) AUD, Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (Jan)Preliminar JPY, Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) EUR, Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jan) EUR, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Jan) EUR, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Jan) EUR, Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Dec) EUR, Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Jan) EUR, Unemployment Rate (MoM) (Nov) EUR, Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report GBP, BOE Inflation Letter GBP, BOE's Governor Carney speech GBP, Cumulative Industrial Output (Dec) INR, Manufacturing Output (Dec) INR, Industrial Output (Dec) INR, New Housing Price Index (YoY) (Dec) CAD, New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec) CAD, Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 6) USD, Continuing Jobless Claims (Jan 30) USD, Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) USD, Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Jan) USD, Business Inventories (Dec) USD, EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Feb 6) USD, 30-Year Bond Auction USD, Food Price Index (MoM) (Jan) NZD, RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech AUD, Foreign bond investment (Feb 6) JPY, Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Feb 6) JPY. 
 
In other news in the media:
 
Natco Pharma, which was granted compulsory license for Bayer's cancer drug Nexavar (Sorafenib) by the Indian patent office a couple of year back , announced that its marketing partner Mylan Inc. has filed an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for the generic version of the same US FDA. (BS)
 
Irish lessor Babcock and Brown Aircraft Management (BBAM) has sought the return of 6 Boeing B737 aircraft, and payments to the tune of around USD100mn from Spicejet towards several months of unpaid lease rentals (USD40mn), besides other damages like maintenance costs. (BS)
 
India Cements announced that its shareholders are set to get ownership of Chennai Super Kings Cricket Ltd, a new wholly owned subsidiary of India Cements. (BS)
 
Tech Mahindra said its sister company Mahindra Finance will become equal shareholder if the Reserve Bank clears its payment bank licence, and the company is also in talks with the World Bank Group member IFC for a partnership in the foray. (ET)
 
In a relief for Jindal Steel and Power Ltd (JSPL) and its promoter Naveen Jindal, Delhi High Court directed a technical committee to review its own decision to change the end-use of two coal blocks earlier allotted to the company and removing the mines from the auction. (BS)
 
The board of Grasim Industries approved the proposed merger of Aditya Birla Chemicals (India) with itself and has approved the swap ratio at 1 share of Grasim for every 16 shares of ABCIL. (BL)
 
IT services major Infosys said it has been selected by ICA Gruppen, Sweden's leading retailer, to manage its IT operations. (BL)
 
Reliance Industries has slapped an arbitration notice challenging oil ministry’s decision to take away 814 square kilometre of its eastern offshore KG-D6 area that contained five gas discoveries. (BL)
 
Surana Solar Ltd has firmed up plans to enter into a new line of business for the manufacturing of LED bulbs and LED tubes of an initial capacity of 1mn units. (BL)
 
Tech Mahindra will build more technology development facilities in the United States and Canada and boost local hiring to tap new business opportunities linked to digital technologies. (ET)
 
Uttarakhand Cabinet has decided to regularise land under the category IV, provide a subsidy of Rs232m to clear the dues of private sugar mills and bring a Bill in the Assembly for providing 10% horizontal reservation to the statehood activists. (BS)
 
National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) announced Rs 1.1tn credit plan for agriculture in Rajasthan for fiscal 2015-16, encompassing all 33 districts in the state. (ET)
 
The Finance Ministry has imposed definitive anti-dumping duty on sodium nitrate imports from China, EU, Ukraine and South Korea. This anti-dumping duty will be valid for a period of five years. (BL)
 
The Cabinet approved increasing the National Minorities Development & Finance Corporation (NMDFC)’s authorised capital from Rs15bn to Rs30bn and restructuring of its shareholding pattern. (BL)

TEN MOST ACTIVE FUTURES

Symbol

No.of Cont Traded

Last price

Open Interest

% chg in Op.Int

SBIN

42,703

288.95

69895000

-4.42

AXISBANK

41,809

557.05

27070500

4.10

ICICIBANK

38,951

332.65

74068750

-0.58

LT

38,941

1,582.00

8528500

2.00

HDFCBANK

31,815

1,061.40

42244250

0.01

RELIANCE

26,060

887.85

32934500

1.19

RELINFRA

24,420

423.60

8214500

-1.16

YESBANK

24,327

821.75

8932000

1.81

TATASTEEL

23,948

359.95

23825500

-1.17

AUROPHARMA

17,969

1,037.90

10605750

7.53

TEN MOST ACTIVE OPTIONS

Option Type

Strike price

No.of Cont Traded

Open Interest

% Chg in Op.In

RELIANCE

CE

900

5,160

543250

33.39

LT

CE

1,600

4,583

169750

5.76

RELIANCE

CE

940

4,442

642500

0.00

ASHOKLEY

CE

65

4,185

6768000

21.20

RELIANCE

CE

920

4,111

445250

21.16

SBIN

CE

300

4,102

2932500

6.59

LT

PE

1,550

4,057

124000

25.25

RELIANCE

PE

880

3,889

334750

29.50

LT

PE

1,500

3,887

211000

1.20

LT

CE

1,700

3,398

358000

10.07

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL

Company Name

S3

S2

S1

Close

R1

R2

R3

ACC

1,518

1,530

1,542

1,567

1,592

1,605

1,617

AMBUJACEM

245

247

248

250

253

254

255

ASIANPAINT

805

810

815

825

835

840

845

AXISBANK

537

542

547

556

566

571

576

BAJAJ-AUTO

2,234

2,241

2,248

2,261

2,274

2,281

2,288

BANKBARODA

171

172

174

178

181

183

184

BHARTIARTL

352

354

355

358

361

362

364

BHEL

257

259

261

264

268

270

272

BPCL

681

685

690

699

707

712

716

CAIRN

251

252

253

255

257

258

259

CIPLA

629

632

636

642

648

652

655

COALINDIA

361

363

365

369

372

374

376

DLF

152

154

156

161

165

167

169

DRREDDY

3,087

3,099

3,111

3,134

3,157

3,169

3,181

GAIL

398

401

404

409

414

417

420

GRASIM

3,695

3,723

3,753

3,812

3,870

3,900

3,929

HCLTECH

1,900

1,910

1,921

1,942

1,962

1,973

1,983

HDFC

1,201

1,211

1,221

1,241

1,261

1,272

1,282

HDFCBANK

1,034

1,040

1,045

1,056

1,066

1,072

1,077

HEROMOTOCO

2,682

2,691

2,702

2,722

2,742

2,753

2,762

HINDALCO

145

146

147

149

152

153

154

HINDUNILVR

874

877

881

888

896

899

903

ICICIBANK

320

323

326

332

338

341

344

IDFC

162

163

165

168

171

172

173

INDUSINDBK

821

827

833

845

857

863

869

INFY

2,230

2,240

2,249

2,268

2,287

2,297

2,306

ITC

368

368

369

371

373

373

374

JINDALSTEL

139

140

141

142

144

145

146

JPASSOCIAT

23

23

24

24

24

25

25

KOTAKBANK

1,253

1,261

1,270

1,286

1,303

1,311

1,319

LT

1,525

1,537

1,551

1,577

1,603

1,616

1,629

LUPIN

1,545

1,550

1,555

1,564

1,574

1,578

1,583

M&M

1,113

1,121

1,129

1,146

1,163

1,171

1,179

MARUTI

3,327

3,346

3,366

3,405

3,444

3,464

3,483

NMDC

139

139

139

140

141

141

141

NTPC

135

136

136

137

139

139

140

ONGC

350

351

353

355

358

359

361

PNB

161

162

164

167

170

171

172

POWERGRID

142

143

144

146

148

149

150

RANBAXY

689

693

698

707

716

721

725

RELIANCE

856

863

870

885

899

906

913

SBIN

280

282

285

290

295

297

300

SSLT

201

203

204

207

209

210

212

SUNPHARMA

903

908

913

923

933

939

943

TATAMOTORS

547

551

556

564

572

576

580

TATAPOWER

79

79

80

81

83

84

84

TATASTEEL

349

351

354

359

363

366

368

TCS

2,384

2,399

2,415

2,446

2,476

2,492

2,507

ULTRACEMCO

2,926

2,940

2,954

2,982

3,010

3,024

3,038

WIPRO

634

636

639

644

648

651

653


 
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