EQUITIES WERE BACK TO BUSINESS IN JUNE 2024
If May 2024 was the month of uncertainty, June 2024 was when the government got back to business. The political lead may have been slender and the government may need coalition support. However, the bottom line is that the NDA government is back for the third time, and has also promised that not much will change on the pace of reforms. That is like manna from heaven to the market players and the FPIs, who were worried that coalition pressures may start to weigh on the reforms process. What will favour the government is a set of very favourable macros. GDP for FY24 had grown at 8.2% in real terms; making India the fastest growing large economy for the third year in a row. In addition, the fiscal deficit for FY24 came in 20 bps lower at 5.6%, while the current account reported a surplus in Q4, the first normal time surplus in last 20 years. Full year CAD was just about 0.7% of GDP.
Amidst the slew of positive macro data flows, how did the stock markets perform? Let us look at the principal indices for the month of June 2024. Nifty closed June 2024 with gains of 6.57%, Sensex closed with gains of 6.86%, and the Nifty Next 50 with gains of 5.92%. In addition, the mid-cap index showed gains of 7.80% while the small cap index gained 9.71%. In short, the gains have been evenly spread across various capitalizations. There was also a sharp turnaround in FPI flows, which led the Nifty and the Sensex to close at lifetime highs. For June 2024, FPIs infused $3.19 Billion into equities; which included $2.92 Billion into secondary markets and $266 Million into IPOs. FPIs, overall, were net buyers in India to the tune of $5.01 Billion with the balance $1.82 Billion coming in as debt market flows of FPIs.
BOND YIELDS CLOSE JUNE 2024, WHERE IT STARTED
For June 2024, the 10-year bond yields opened the month at 7.008% and closed exactly at the same level. In May 2024, the bond yields had dipped below 7% after the ₹2.11 Trillion dividend by the RBI to the government. However, towards the end of May, the political uncertainty and the prospects of a coalition government pushed the markets to worry about the fiscal deficit and the level of borrowings. While, the bond yields in June 2024 may have closed where it started, it glosses over a rather volatile month.
Towards the middle of June 2024, the bond yields again fell below 7%, after it became clear that a stable government would be in place and reforms would go on as planned. In addition, the Fed also hinted at rate hikes in September, raising hopes that the RBI may also follow suit and cut rate in August. However, the rates were volatile in the last week and again bounced back above 7%. This was after the dollar strengthened sharply against the Euro, raising the spectre of imported inflation. Delayed monsoons is another concern for food inflation. Volatile bond yields impacted performance of the debt funds in June 2024. Let us now turn to how the equity, debt and hybrid funds performed as of end June 2024.
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Baroda BNP Paribas Large (G) | 44.440% | 21.230% | 20.352% |
JM Large Cap (G) | 49.170% | 22.798% | 20.183% |
Nippon India Large Cap Fund (G) | 42.081% | 25.670% | 20.070% |
Category Average | 36.280% | 17.683% | 17.311% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Quant Active Fund (G) | 54.513% | 26.866% | 32.267% |
Mahindra Manulife Multi (G) | 52.247% | 26.067% | 27.496% |
Nippon India Multi Cap (G) | 53.085% | 32.640% | 24.094% |
Category Average | 49.074% | 24.011% | 23.528% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Quant Flexi Cap Fund (G) | 62.833% | 27.827% | 34.154% |
JM Flexi Cap Fund (G) | 68.369% | 32.624% | 27.845% |
PPFAS Flexi Cap Fund (G) | 39.416% | 22.150% | 25.752% |
Category Average | 42.510% | 19.964% | 19.695% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Quant Mid-Cap Fund (G) | 73.967% | 34.852% | 37.325% |
Motilal Oswal Mid-Cap(G) | 66.615% | 40.800% | 32.236% |
Edelweiss Mid-Cap Fund (G) | 61.629% | 29.137% | 30.363% |
Category Average | 55.190% | 26.082% | 26.560% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Quant Small Cap Fund (G) | 67.873% | 34.271% | 44.135% |
BOI Small Cap Fund (G) | 54.843% | 29.547% | 36.561% |
Nippon Small Cap Fund (G) | 57.768% | 34.856% | 34.956% |
Category Average | 50.841% | 27.610% | 30.266% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Quant Tax Plan (G) | 60.534% | 28.885% | 35.441% |
BOI ELSS Tax Saver (G) | 60.840% | 25.570% | 28.730% |
SBI Long Term Equity Fund (G) | 59.734% | 28.355% | 24.876% |
Category Average | 41.883% | 20.349% | 19.874% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
UTI Next 50 Index Fund (G) | 65.584% | 23.261% | 21.718% |
ICICI Pru Nifty Next 50 Fund (G) | 65.004% | 23.199% | 21.569% |
LIC MF Nifty Next-50 Fund (G) | 64.602% | 23.242% | 21.555% |
Category Average | 46.996% | 18.779% | 17.187% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Quant Absolute Fund (G) | 40.610% | 21.827% | 26.651% |
JM Aggressive Hybrid Fund (G) | 59.066% | 26.091% | 24.949% |
ICICI Pru Equity & Debt (G) | 39.522% | 24.809% | 21.876% |
Category Average | 32.370% | 16.728% | 16.607% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Kotak Debt Hybrid (G) | 18.236% | 12.332% | 13.140% |
BOI Conservative Hybrid (G) | 14.936% | 14.935% | 12.870% |
SBI Conservative Hybrid (G) | 15.365% | 11.331% | 11.809% |
Category Average | 13.672% | 9.517% | 9.368% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
HDFC BAF (G) | 42.548% | 24.826% | 19.665% |
Baroda BNP Paribas BAF (G) | 28.443% | 16.465% | 17.900% |
Edelweiss BAF (G) | 26.978% | 14.886% | 16.970% |
Category Average | 26.478% | 13.697% | 13.577% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Quant Multi-Asset Fund (G) | 49.051% | 25.624% | 30.573% |
ICICI Pru Multi-Asset Fund (G) | 34.875% | 24.044% | 20.763% |
HDFC Multi-Asset Fund (G) | 25.449% | 15.556% | 16.498% |
Category Average | 28.224% | 16.711% | 17.030% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Tata Equity Arbitrage (G) | 8.517% | 6.426% | 6.179% |
Invesco Arbitrage Fund (G) | 8.498% | 6.753% | 6.136% |
Edelweiss India Arbitrage (G) | 8.520% | 6.575% | 6.120% |
Category Average | 7.853% | 5.915% | 5.416% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
DSP Gilt Fund (G) | 9.266% | 6.674% | 7.985% |
ICICI Pru Gilt Fund (G) | 8.197% | 6.800% | 7.955% |
Bandhan G-Sec Fund (G) | 10.098% | 6.392% | 7.828% |
Category Average | 7.749% | 5.730% | 6.621% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
ICICI Pru Corporate Bond (G) | 7.784% | 6.347% | 7.387% |
ABSL Corporate Bond (G) | 7.732% | 6.072% | 7.338% |
HDFC Corporate Bond (G) | 7.810% | 5.984% | 7.286% |
Category Average | 7.068% | 5.443% | 6.695% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
DSP Credit Risk Fund (G) | 16.292% | 11.794% | 8.515% |
Baroda BNP Credit Risk Fund (G) | 8.298% | 9.890% | 8.506% |
ICICI Pru Credit Risk Fund (G) | 8.567% | 7.121% | 8.251% |
Category Average | 8.523% | 7.682% | 6.303% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Top performing Direct Plans (Growth Option) on 5-year returns (as on 28th Jun-24):
Name of Fund | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
Quant Liquid Plan (G) | 7.212% | 5.884% | 5.755% |
Mahindra Manulife Liquid (G) | 7.428% | 5.879% | 5.360% |
Edelweiss Liquid Fund (G) | 7.446% | 5.861% | 5.358% |
Category Average | 6.541% | 5.208% | 4.930% |
Data Source: Morningstar |
Having the seen the returns for various categories of fund for different periods of time for the period ended June 2024, let us turn to whether these returns actually had an impact on the flows into various categories. While the returns and flows may not have a direct correlation, they should ideally converge into a single logical flow in the long run.
CORRELATION OF FLOWS AND CATEGORY PERFORMANCE
Are the flows and returns of various categories of funds related? One must appreciate that returns are as of the latest month and the flows as shown in the table below are with a lag of one month. However, that is more of an academic distinction and the broad trends should be visible. The table below captures the AUM of various categories of funds and how they have moved over the last one year.
Month | Debt AUM
(₹ Trillion) |
Equity AUM
(₹ Trillion) |
Alternate AUM
(₹ Trillion) |
Total AUM
(₹ Trillion) |
May-23 | 13.49 | 16.57 | 12.85 | 43.20 |
Jun-23 | 13.48 | 17.43 | 13.22 | 44.39 |
Jul-23 | 14.17 | 18.25 | 13.69 | 46.38 |
Aug-23 | 14.00 | 18.60 | 13.74 | 46.64 |
Sep-23 | 13.05 | 19.08 | 14.17 | 46.58 |
Oct-23 | 13.54 | 18.79 | 14.10 | 46.72 |
Nov-23 | 13.58 | 20.33 | 14.87 | 49.05 |
Dec-23 | 12.91 | 21.79 | 15.78 | 50.78 |
Jan-24 | 13.77 | 22.50 | 16.17 | 52.74 |
Feb-24 | 14.50 | 23.12 | 16.62 | 54.54 |
Mar-24 | 12.62 | 23.49 | 17.02 | 53.40 |
Apr-24 | 14.59 | 24.74 | 17.66 | 57.26 |
May-24 | 15.12 | 25.40 | 18.13 | 58.91 |
Data Source AMFI
As can be seen in the above table, the overall AUM has grown by 36.4% yoy to ₹58.91 Trillion as of the close of May 2024. This has been triggered by 12.1% growth in debt fund AUM, 53.3% growth in equity AUM and 41.1% growth in alternative assets. For equity funds and for hybrids and passives to some extent AUM accretion is more a result of index value accretion. In the case of debt funds, it is entirely about flows. Flows have been gravitating towards equities and hybrids in search of greater diversification, higher returns, and a better fit into the asset allocation goals of investors. Obviously, when active strategy looks like the low-hanging fruit, passive funds have temporarily taken a backseat in terms of flows.
WHAT WE READ FROM THE JUNE 2024 MUTUAL FUND RANKINGS
Here are some key trends we could decipher from the rankings of various categories of mutual funds over different time periods as of end of June 2024.
As political stability returned, the big gainer was the India equity story. That is evident in the mutual fund returns as of the period ended June 2024.
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