Market outlook for next week (30-Jun to 04-Jul)

30 Jun 2025 , 09:46 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR THE WEEK TO JUNE 27, 2025

The week to June 27, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex gaining 2.00% and 2.09% respectively. During the week, FPIs were net buyers in Indian equities worth $1,522 Million, in tandem with falling geopolitical risk perception. Here are 20 key sectors for the week.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (27-Jun)	Index (20-Jun)
Nifty Metals	4.81%	9,578.20	9,138.60
Nifty Capital Markets	4.75%	4,692.10	4,479.40
Nifty Chemicals	4.21%	31,535.25	30,262.20
Nifty Non-Banks	3.88%	30,840.60	29,689.65
Nifty Consumer Durables	3.40%	38,181.20	36,926.20
Nifty Infrastructure	3.37%	9,438.70	9,130.55
Nifty Oil & Gas	3.25%	11,835.05	11,462.10
Nifty Mobility	3.03%	20,977.50	20,360.95
Nifty PSU Banks	2.49%	7,015.50	6,844.75
Nifty MNC	2.30%	28,858.35	28,210.05
Nifty Banks	2.12%	57,443.90	56,252.85
Nifty Healthcare	2.12%	14,411.65	14,112.95
Nifty Private Banks	1.88%	28,506.10	27,978.90
Nifty Automobiles	1.39%	24,007.95	23,679.35
Nifty India Digital	1.26%	9,226.90	9,111.65
Nifty FMCG	0.88%	55,109.00	54,630.95
Nifty CPSE	0.41%	6,620.95	6,593.95
Nifty IT	-0.43%	38,822.95	38,991.45
Nifty India Defence	-1.13%	8,788.35	8,888.45
Nifty Realty	-1.94%	993.95	1,013.65

Data Source: NSE

Out of 20 key sectors, 17 sectors delivered positive returns with only 3 sectors giving negative returns. The positive theme was the global plays like metals, chemicals and oil & gas making a comeback. Losers for the week were limited to realty, defence, and IT. Out of 3 losing sectors, 2 sectors fell more than 1%.

Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at 2.10%. The top 5 sectors delivered 4.21% returns, while top 10 sectors gave average returns of 3.55%. The bottom 10 sectors delivered 0.66% on average. With the global risks abating during the week and better than expected current account position, most global plays showed a smart turnaround in the week.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

The good news for the week came from the macros and the IPO markets. The current account deficit for FY25 came in sharply lower at 0.6% of GDP, thanks to a surplus of $13.5 Billion in Q4FY25. The CAD combined with the Iran-Israel ceasefire, led to oil falling to $66/bbl and the rupee hardening to ₹85.45/$. The IPO of HDB Financial got subscribed 17 times, a good signal for an IPO of that size; although the demand was largely institutional.

On the downside, it looks like the Indo-US trade deal is still stuck and may not go through before the deadline of July 09, 2025. There is one more round of talks in early July, but it is doubtful if there would be headway on services and GM crops. For the first quarter, the US GDP officially contracted by -0.5% as per the third and final estimate. It remains to be seen if this enthuses the Fed to cut rates or whether they would still wait for tariff outcomes!

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO JULY 04, 2025

Here are key triggers that could influence stock markets next week.

• On the domestic data front, there is the IIP for May and the fiscal deficit update for the first two months of FY25 on Monday. The IIP is expected to be lower by 30 bps on weak manufacturing. Fiscal deficit update will hold the key to full year target of 4.4%.
• In global data, the big data point this week will be the unemployment figure. It is expected to be stable at 4.2% for the fifth month in a row. The markets will also be closely tracking the speeches delivered by Powell and Bostic during the week.
• The peace in the Middle East and West Asia will be closely tracked, as would be the progress on the Indo-US trade deal. The coming week will be critical for crude oil and for USDINR; both of which had shown favourable movements in the previous week.
• The IPO action will continue this week with a total of 2 fresh IPO openings, 1 IPO closure and a total of 6 IPO listings during the week. The HDB Financial IPO getting subscribed 17 times, has given the IPO a morale booster.
• Key global data points. PMI, ISM, JOLTS, Crude Stocks, Atlanta GDP, Jobless claims, non-farm payrolls, Trade Deficit, and FOMC speak (US). Lagarde Speak, PMI, CPI (EU); IIP, Household Spending (Japan); Caixin PMI (China); and Current Account, GDP (UK).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to July 04, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX tapered from 13.6 levels to 12.3, as global risks abated. This could lead to VIX stabilizing in a range.

• Nifty closed the week at 25,638 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,556 and major support at 25,426. Immediate resistance is at 25,687 and later at 25,817. Nifty remains a long trade, unless it breaks below 25,338 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 84,059 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 83,773 and major support at 83,329. Immediate resistance is at 84,217 and later at 84,661. Sensex remains a long trade, till it breaks below 83,050 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

With the CAD data out, most of the FY25 data points are done and dusted. The focus would now be on the situation in the Gulf and the updates on the Indo-US trade deal.