Market outlook for the week (06-Oct to 10-Oct, 2025)

6 Oct 2025 , 11:29 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO OCTOBER 03, 2025

The week to October 03, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex gaining +0.97% each. During the week, FPIs were net sellers in Indian equities of $(1,147) Million. A combination of global triggers and concerns over domestic Q2 results and valuations kept FPIs on tenterhooks.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (03-Oct)	Index (26-Sep)
Nifty PSU Banks	4.43%	7,583.30	7,261.45
Nifty Metals	3.93%	10,277.10	9,888.25
Nifty Private Banks	2.53%	27,159.00	26,488.45
Nifty India Defence	2.31%	8,133.65	7,949.80
Nifty Banks	2.21%	55,589.25	54,389.35
Nifty Oil & Gas	2.17%	11,374.00	11,132.50
Nifty CPSE	2.05%	6,550.05	6,418.40
Nifty Capital Markets	1.94%	4,246.25	4,165.60
Nifty Chemicals	1.93%	29,224.89	28,670.43
Nifty Non-Banks	1.90%	29,743.70	29,189.60
Nifty India Digital	1.31%	8,817.65	8,703.85
Nifty Mobility	1.26%	22,573.25	22,293.15
Nifty Realty	1.03%	876.10	867.15
Nifty Automobiles	1.01%	26,753.10	26,484.55
Nifty Healthcare	0.93%	14,287.20	14,155.55
Nifty IT	0.74%	33,949.75	33,702.00
Nifty Consumer Durables	0.72%	37,781.70	37,512.65
Nifty FMCG	0.59%	55,170.60	54,847.55
Nifty MNC	0.55%	29,985.05	29,822.10
Nifty Infrastructure	0.36%	9,072.85	9,039.90

Data Source: NSE

For the week, all 20 sectors gave positive returns, with PSU Banks, Metals, and Defence stocks recording the best gains. There were no sectors on the downside, but FMCG, consumer durables, and infrastructure were subdued. Out of 20 gaining sectors; 14 sectors gained more than 1%; of which 7 sectors gained over 2%, and 2 sectors over 3%.

Average returns of 20 sectors stood at 1.69%. The top 5 sectors delivered 3.08% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 2.54%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered 0.85%, showing positive momentum in markets. Going ahead, the key factors in the coming week will be the US shutdown updates, FOMC minutes, and the USDINR.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

On the positive side, the RBI made a very strong statement in its monetary policy, underlining that India had the ability to grow on its own. While repo rates were held at 5.5%, the inflation estimate was cut by 50 bps while GDP growth raised by 30 bps. The IIP growth came above 4% for August, with hopes of positive revision. Fiscal deficit for the first 5 months was contained at 38.1% of full year target, despite the recent spike.

On the downside, the US shutdown is not only a US growth dampener, but also puts many of India’s agenda items like trade deal and H1-B visas in the back-burner. In recent weeks, the oil prices and the USDINR have stayed volatile, adding to the macro risks of investing in India. More importantly, the week will see 3 IPOs absorbing over ₹30,000 crore of IPO money from the markets, which is likely to substantially dry up market liquidity.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO OCTOBER 10, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• The primary trigger for the coming week will be progress on the US shutdown. Since workers in most essential services are on furlough, it means that India’s trade talks, trade deal, and even the visa issues are likely to be relegated to the background.
• The FOMC minutes and the unemployment data in the US will be closely tracked. These are two key triggers for the FOMC rate decision towards the end of October. The only concern is whether the Fed will get reliable and actionable data amidst the shutdown.
• There are 3 IPOs of Tata Capital, LG Electronics India, and WeWork India that will absorb over ₹30,000 crore as part of their IPOs. The actual liquidity impact will depend on the level of oversubscription, but it is surely going to be a test of market appetite.
• Markets will be closely watching if the RBI continues to defend the rupee at around 89/$. If the rupee is allowed to weaken beyond ₹89/$, it could have larger implications for FPI flows. FPIs were net sellers of $(1,147) Million in the recent week.
• Key global data points. Fed speak, Fed minutes, jobs, Trade Deficit, Redbook, API Crude Stocks, Jobless Claims, and WASDE Report (US). ECB Speak, Eurogroup Meetings (EU); Household Spending, Current Account Surplus (Japan); PMI, HPI, BOE Speak (UK).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to October 10, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX retreated from 11.43 to 10.05, even briefly dipping to 9.95 levels. The fear factor appears to have considerably reduced in this week.

• Nifty closed the week at 24,894 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 24,793 and major support at 24,636. Immediate resistance is at 24,950 and later at 25,107. Nifty remains a Long Trade, unless it breaks below 24,646 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 81,207 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 80,820 and major support at 80,218. Immediate resistance is at 81,423 and later at 82,025 Sensex remains a Long Trade, till it breaks below 80,335 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

The focus next week will be on the US shutdown, FOMC minutes and US unemployment. The bigger concern for India will be the Q2FY26 results season that starts next week!