SECTORAL STORY FOR THE WEEK TO JULY 04, 2025
The week to July 04, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex losing -0.69% and -0.74% respectively. During the week, FPIs were net buyers in Indian equities worth $497 Million, but tariff and trade deal uncertainty had its impact. Here are 20 key sectors for the week.
Sectoral Index |
Weekly Returns |
Index (04-Jul) |
Index (27-Jun) |
Nifty Consumer Durables | 2.77% | 39,238.10 | 38,181.20 |
Nifty Healthcare | 2.11% | 14,716.10 | 14,411.65 |
Nifty PSU Banks | 1.96% | 7,152.95 | 7,015.50 |
Nifty India Defence | 1.73% | 8,940.45 | 8,788.35 |
Nifty Oil & Gas | 1.41% | 12,002.35 | 11,835.05 |
Nifty IT | 0.89% | 39,166.55 | 38,822.95 |
Nifty Chemicals | 0.26% | 31,618.19 | 31,535.25 |
Nifty Mobility | 0.16% | 21,010.05 | 20,977.50 |
Nifty MNC | 0.15% | 28,902.75 | 28,858.35 |
Nifty Metals | 0.02% | 9,580.40 | 9,578.20 |
Nifty CPSE | -0.01% | 6,620.45 | 6,620.95 |
Nifty Infrastructure | -0.05% | 9,433.95 | 9,438.70 |
Nifty Automobiles | -0.11% | 23,980.40 | 24,007.95 |
Nifty India Digital | -0.16% | 9,212.35 | 9,226.90 |
Nifty FMCG | -0.68% | 54,735.60 | 55,109.00 |
Nifty Banks | -0.72% | 57,031.90 | 57,443.90 |
Nifty Capital Markets | -1.25% | 4,633.65 | 4,692.10 |
Nifty Private Banks | -1.54% | 28,065.85 | 28,506.10 |
Nifty Non-Banks | -2.10% | 30,193.35 | 30,840.60 |
Nifty Realty | -2.21% | 971.95 | 993.95 |
Data Source: NSE
Out of 20 key sectors, 10 sectors delivered positive returns and 10 gave negative returns for the week. The star theme was consumer durables amidst robust demand, followed by healthcare and PSU banks. Losers included private banks, NBFCs, and realty. Out of 10 losing sectors, 4 sectors fell more than 1%. Out of 10 gaining sectors; 5 sectors gained over 1%.
Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at 0.13%. The top 5 sectors delivered 2.00% returns, while top 10 sectors gave average returns of 1.15%. The bottom 10 sectors delivered -0.88% on average. The markets have been largely cautious ahead of the possible impact of the reciprocal tariffs kicking in on 09-July and the impact of the passage of the OBBBA.
WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY
The fiscal deficit as of end May 2025 came in at just 0.8% of full year target. However, this could be misleading as it includes the front-loaded impact of RBI dividends of ₹2.69 Trillion. While India still does not have a trade deal on hand, both sides are confident that they can have a workable interim deal before the deadline of 09-July. On the investment side, India is betting big on capex in defence and in self-sufficiency in key commodities like copper.
On the downside, the IIP number came in at 1.23% for May 2025; sharply lower than the 2.57% reported in April 2025. This was due to a combination of slowing capex and pressure on exports. But, the big news in the week was the SEBI order against Jane Street for allegedly influencing index volatility. Jane Street was a significant player in F&O and their absence is likely to create a big volume void in the trading liquidity.
STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO JULY 11, 2025
Here are key triggers that could influence stock markets next week.
What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to July 11, 2025.
PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS
VIX was flat this week at 12.33 levels, as global risks abated, but trade deal uncertainty mounted. This could lead to VIX stabilizing in a range.
The entire focus in the coming week would be on the Indo-US trade deal happening. But the bigger overhang for the Indian markets would be the outcome of the Jane Street order.
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