Market outlook for the week (09-Jun to 13-Jun, 2025)

9 Jun 2025 , 09:20 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR THE WEEK TO JUNE 06, 2025

The week to June 06, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex gaining +1.02% and +0.91% respectively. During the week, FPIs were net sellers in Indian equities worth $(1,025) Million; but the real thrust to the markets came from the RBI policy. Here are 20 key sectors for the week.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (06-Jun)	Index (30-May)
Nifty Realty	9.51%	1,039.60	949.35
Nifty Capital Markets	8.93%	4,634.70	4,254.80
Nifty Non-Banks	3.84%	30,295.25	29,176.05
Nifty India Digital	2.73%	8,997.80	8,758.50
Nifty India Defence	2.69%	8,919.20	8,685.60
Nifty Metals	2.32%	9,406.45	9,193.25
Nifty Chemicals	2.15%	30,809.22	30,160.49
Nifty Mobility	1.98%	20,716.85	20,314.90
Nifty PSU Banks	1.78%	7,100.30	6,976.00
Nifty Healthcare	1.60%	14,112.95	13,890.40
Nifty MNC	1.55%	28,550.70	28,115.80
Nifty CPSE	1.54%	6,550.05	6,450.60
Nifty Banks	1.49%	56,578.40	55,749.70
Nifty Automobiles	1.44%	23,661.30	23,325.60
Nifty Infrastructure	1.24%	9,081.15	8,970.35
Nifty FMCG	0.94%	55,802.00	55,283.00
Nifty Private Banks	0.93%	27,832.50	27,576.65
Nifty Oil & Gas	0.51%	11,446.90	11,388.40
Nifty Consumer Durables	0.36%	37,495.35	37,359.00
Nifty IT	-0.07%	37,294.85	37,321.75

Data Source: NSE

Out of 20 key sectors, 19 sectors gave positive returns with only IT sector giving negative returns this week. The 3 biggest beneficiaries were rate sensitive sectors; Realty, Capital Markets, and NBFCs. Defence continued to gain on order flows, while metals and chemicals gained on supply chain edge. Out of the 19 gaining sectors, 7 sectors gained over 2%.

Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at 2.37%. The top 5 sectors delivered 5.54% returns, while top 10 sectors gave average returns of 3.75%. Even the bottom 10 sectors delivered 0.99% on average. The positive traction in markets was largely triggered on Friday after the RBI monetary policy announced a big boost to growth and liquidity.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

On the positive side, the RBI cut repo rates by 50 bps to 5.50%. That is a full 100 bps lower since February. In addition, the 100 bps cut in CRR is likely to release ₹2.50 Trillion into the financial system, ensuring more lendable resources for banks. RBI-MPC also lowered its inflation estimates for FY26 by 30 bps to 3.7%, lower than the RBI median. Also, the US jobs data is conducive to further FPI flows into emerging markets like India.

On the downside, the Indo-US trade deal is still on tenterhooks, despite assurances by the US Commerce Secretary. Along with the rate cuts, the RBI also changed the stance of the monetary policy from accommodative to neutral; implying that further rate cuts may be unlikely. Also, the CRR cuts are back-ended; in that they will take effect in 4 tranches between September and November. Bank NIMs are likely to face pressure too!

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO JUNE 13, 2025

Here are key triggers that could influence stock markets next week.

• The markets are likely to take another week to digest the full impact of the monetary policy; including the repo rate cut, CRR cut, and inflation lowering. These are likely to be positive triggers for rate sensitives like banks, NBFCs, and realty in the coming week.
• Two major data points are expected to be announced. Firstly, the India CPI inflation is expected to be put out this week, with a high probability of tapering below 3%. Also, the trade data is expected to show pressure on the merchandise trade deficit for May 2025.
• While IPO markets are likely to remain cool, two big upcoming IPOs are in the news. HDB Financial got SEBI approval for its ₹12,500 Crore IPO. However, Zepto decided to put off its IPO to 2026, after issues over food quality and using dark patterns on customers.
• The US CPI inflation is also likely to be announced by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this week. While US CPI inflation had tapered to 2.3% in April, the month of May 2025 is likely to see some impact of the tariffs in the form of higher consumer inflation.
• Key global data points. Atlanta Fed GDP, Crude Stocks, PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, WASDE Report, and Fed Balance Sheet (US). IIP, Trade Balance (EU); GDP, IIP, Current Account Surplus (Japan); PMI, CPI, Trade Balance (China); and Unemployment, GDP, IIP, and Trade Deficit (UK).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to June 13, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX fell sharply from 16.08 levels to 14.33, as bond market uncertainty and geopolitical risk faded compared to previous week. VIX may stabilize around this region.

• Nifty closed the week at 25,003 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 24,773 and major support at 24,415. Immediate resistance is at 25,131 and later at 25,489. Nifty remains a long trade, unless it breaks below 24,579 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 82,189 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 81,453 and major support at 80,293. Immediate resistance is at 82,613 and later at 83,772. Sensex remains a long trade, till it breaks below 80,821 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

This is a busy month for the markets. This week is about India and US inflation, especially since US inflation is likely to feel the impact of tariffs. The week after that would be about the RBI MPC minutes and the Fed policy statement and the quarterly projections update. The big data point will come out in the last week, when the FY25 current account deficit (CAD) number is out. That could be data point to watch out for!