Market outlook for the week (11-Aug to 15-Aug, 2025)

11 Aug 2025 , 09:32 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO AUGUST 08, 2025

The week to August 08, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex losing -0.82% and -0.92% respectively. During the week, FPIs were net sellers in Indian equities worth $(1.34) Billion, as traders preferred to stay light. Here are 20 key sectors for the week.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (08-Aug)	Index (01-Aug)
Nifty PSU Banks	1.59%	6,881.25	6,773.35
Nifty Metals	0.49%	9,147.10	9,102.35
Nifty Non-Banks	0.36%	28,868.75	28,766.20
Nifty Capital Markets	0.35%	4,318.50	4,303.60
Nifty Automobiles	0.27%	23,474.65	23,410.95
Nifty CPSE	0.01%	6,317.20	6,316.30
Nifty India Defence	-0.10%	7,607.90	7,615.60
Nifty Mobility	-0.20%	20,582.70	20,623.15
Nifty IT	-0.72%	34,398.50	34,649.60
Nifty Consumer Durables	-0.91%	37,549.60	37,893.50
Nifty Oil & Gas	-0.92%	10,989.15	11,090.80
Nifty Infrastructure	-1.01%	8,879.10	8,969.65
Nifty Banks	-1.10%	55,004.90	55,617.60
Nifty India Digital	-1.13%	8,641.35	8,740.45
Nifty Private Banks	-1.32%	26,564.70	26,920.35
Nifty Chemicals	-1.33%	29,982.61	30,385.53
Nifty MNC	-1.92%	28,134.05	28,684.25
Nifty Healthcare	-2.30%	14,135.55	14,468.70
Nifty FMCG	-2.31%	54,900.95	56,197.05
Nifty Realty	-2.45%	874.15	896.15

Data Source: NSE

For the week, only 6 out of 20 sectors delivered positive returns, while 14 gave negative returns. The star themes were PSU Banks, Metals, and FMCG; which rallied on the back of specific stories. Big losers included Realty, FMCG, and Healthcare. Out of 6 gaining sectors, only 1 sector gained over 1%. In all, 3 sectors fell over 2% this week.

Average returns of 20 sectors stood at -0.73%. The top 5 sectors delivered 0.61% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 0.11%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered -1.58%, showing lot of pressure on the downside. Going ahead, we could see more pressure on the export oriented sectors that are likely to be hit by the punitive tariffs imposed by the US.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

On the positive side, the RBI has given hope to markets in its monetary policy by holding back on rate cuts. It means; the RBI is keeping its growth arsenal ready, should the need arise to align monetary policy with fiscal policy to boost growth. Despite US threats, India stood firm on Russian oil. The long term implication could be; greater domestic focus. The good news is that the IPO market is showing robust appetite.

On the downside, the US tariff threat continues to be an overhang. While 25% tariffs are live, the other 25% tariff for trading with Russia will only be imposed after August 21, 2025. In what could be a setback for retail investors; SEBI plans to limit retail investors to 10% beyond ₹5,000 crore issue size and overall limit of retail at 25%. This could impact retail appetite for IPOs and the spread of retail equity ownership in India.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO AUGUST 15, 2025

Here are key triggers that could influence stock markets next week.

• The big story will still be the punitive tariffs to be imposed by the US on Indian exports. We are also seeing India getting closer to Russia and China in terms of trade and diplomatic relationships and that could have interesting implications.
• The coming week will see the India CPI inflation and WPI inflation being announced for July 2025. The CPI inflation assumes significance as it is expected to trend lower from its 77-month lows witnessed in the previous month. This could mean more rate cuts.
• While the coming week will be a truncated week of trading, it will also see the trade data being announced. It remains to be seen if the recent tariffs have resulted in any spike in imports due to front-loading, and how it will impact the CAD picture.
• There are 2 IPOs opening next week; Bluestone Jewellery & Lifestyle and Regaal Resources Ltd. In addition, the ₹3,600 Crore IPO of JSW Cement will close next week, with the overall IPO still relying on the last day to get fully subscribed.
• Key global data points. CPI, WASDE Report, API Crude Stocks, Core PPI, Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet, IIP (US). GDP, IIP, Eurogroup Meetings (EU); GDP, IIP (Japan); New Loans, IIP, Unemployment (China); Unemployment, GDP, IIP, Trade Balance (UK).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to August 15, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX inched up from 11.98 to 12.03 levels amidst uncertainty, as the imposition of 25% plus tariffs raised the risk levels.

• Nifty closed the week at 24,363 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 24,272 and major support at 24,024. Immediate resistance is at 24,520 and later at 24,768. Nifty remains a Short trade, unless it breaks above 24,673 with volumes. Longs only above that!
• Sensex closed the week at 79,858 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 79,572 and major support at 78,798. Immediate resistance is at 80,347 and later at 81,121. Sensex remains a short trade, till it breaks above 80,853 with volumes. Longs only above that!

The focus in the coming week would be the series of key data flows on CPI, WPI, and Trade. However, Trump punitive tariffs will still be the overriding factor.