Market outlook for the week (13-Oct to 17-Oct, 2025)

13 Oct 2025 , 11:06 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO OCTOBER 10, 2025

The week to October 10, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex gain +1.57% and +1.59% respectively. During the week, FPIs net bought Indian equities of $197 Million. After a tentative start, the FPIs did show signs of confidence in Indian equities this week.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (10-Oct)	Index (03-Oct)
Nifty Capital Markets	5.05%	4,460.85	4,246.25
Nifty IT	4.89%	35,609.05	33,949.75
Nifty India Digital	4.54%	9,218.25	8,817.65
Nifty Healthcare	3.19%	14,742.25	14,287.20
Nifty Realty	2.35%	896.65	876.10
Nifty Private Banks	2.22%	27,762.50	27,159.00
Nifty Consumer Durables	2.13%	38,588.10	37,781.70
Nifty Non-Banks	2.02%	30,345.95	29,743.70
Nifty Banks	1.84%	56,609.75	55,589.25
Nifty PSU Banks	1.48%	7,695.80	7,583.30
Nifty Infrastructure	1.21%	9,182.80	9,072.85
Nifty Oil & Gas	0.82%	11,467.25	11,374.00
Nifty Mobility	0.65%	22,719.55	22,573.25
Nifty Chemicals	0.10%	29,254.55	29,224.89
Nifty MNC	0.02%	29,990.00	29,985.05
Nifty CPSE	-0.10%	6,543.50	6,550.05
Nifty Automobiles	-0.12%	26,721.20	26,753.10
Nifty Metals	-0.15%	10,261.55	10,277.10
Nifty FMCG	-0.37%	54,966.45	55,170.60
Nifty India Defence	-0.46%	8,096.25	8,133.65

Data Source: NSE

For the week, 15 sectors gave positive returns, while 5 gave negative returns. Capital Markets, IT, Digital, and Healthcare recorded best gains. On the downside, defence, metals, automobiles and FMCG were under pressure. Out of 15 gaining sectors; 8 sectors gained more than 2%; of which 3 sectors gained over 4% during the previous week.

Average returns of 20 sectors stood at 1.57%. The top 5 sectors delivered 4.00% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 2.97%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered 0.16%, showing neutral momentum in markets. Going ahead, the key triggers in the coming week will be the US shutdown updates, India inflation, India trade, and the RBI MPC minutes.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

On the positive side, it was a robust week for IPOs with big ticket IPOs like Tata Capital, LG Electronics India, and WeWork India sailing through. LG Electronics managed to see buying interest of ₹4.39 Trillion, the highest on record. Mutual fund flows into active equity funds and passive funds remained positive, even as SIP flows created a new record of ₹29,361 crore in September. TCS gave a positive start to the IT sector results for Q2FY26.

On the downside, the US shutdown continues to cast its shadow of uncertainty on the Indian markets. The Fed minutes have hinted at, probably, two more rate cuts this year; which will put pressure on the RBI to also follow suit. Meanwhile, the top-level stalemate continues at the Tata group, which has had a fairly strong impact on the market cap of the group. The US shutdown also raises concerns over reliable data flows from the US.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO OCTOBER 17, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• With the shutdown resulting in postponement in the US announcing its jobs data and CPI inflation data, the markets are likely to be worried. Also, the next Fed meet later this month will have to make monetary calls based on inadequate and unreliable data.
• RBI policy minutes will be published in the coming week. Markets are still hoping for a rate cut in December and the individual views of the MPC members will give the first insight into whether there is the possibility of a rate cut in December 2025.
• India will announce the CPI inflation and the WPI inflation in the coming week. While CPI inflation is expected to again taper below 2%, the WPI inflation could see another bounce this month due to pressures emanating from the core inflation basket.
• A key data point in the coming week will be the merchandise trade deficit. It is likely to further widen from the figure of $26.5 Billion in August, as the month of September will see the full impact of the penal 50% tariffs impacting exports to the US.
• Key global data points. Fed speak, Construction Spending, Biege Book, API Crude Stocks, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Business Inventories (US). IIP, Trade, CPI, ECB Speak (EU); IIP (Japan); BOE Speak, Jobs, GDP (UK); Trade Surplus, CPI, PPI, New Loans (China).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to October 17, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX was flat at 10.10 levels, even briefly dipping to 9.71 levels. The fear factor appears to have considerably reduced in this week.

• Nifty closed the week at 25,285 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,185 and major support at 25,011. Immediate resistance is at 25,358 and later at 25,532. Nifty remains a Long Trade, unless it breaks below 25,065 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 82,501 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 82,164 and major support at 81,583. Immediate resistance is at 82,746 and later at 83,327. Sensex remains a Long Trade, till it breaks below 81,758 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

The focus next week will be on the US shutdown and the key Indian data points like inflation, trade data, and the RBI MPC minutes.