Market outlook for the week (15-Sep to 19-Sep, 2025)

15 Sep 2025 , 10:46 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO SEPTEMBER 12, 2025

The week to September 12, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex gaining +1.51% and +1.48% respectively. During the week, FPIs were marginal buyers in Indian equities worth $168 Million, as tariff impact still dominates. Here are 20 key sectors, indexed by weekly returns.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (12-Sep)	Index (05-Sep)
Nifty India Defence	7.00%	8,044.70	7,518.65
Nifty IT	4.26%	36,110.75	34,635.85
Nifty PSU Banks	2.94%	7,057.05	6,855.70
Nifty CPSE	2.48%	6,402.30	6,247.65
Nifty non-Banks	2.35%	29,915.35	29,229.45
Nifty Metals	2.09%	9,883.60	9,681.65
Nifty Automobiles	2.07%	26,866.65	26,320.60
Nifty Mobility	1.83%	22,507.40	22,103.50
Nifty Healthcare	1.79%	14,747.80	14,487.85
Nifty India Digital	1.68%	9,108.80	8,957.90
Nifty Chemicals	1.52%	29,818.42	29,373.24
Nifty Private Banks	1.44%	26,717.80	26,337.55
Nifty Oil & Gas	1.44%	11,091.15	10,933.70
Nifty Realty	1.36%	884.35	872.50
Nifty Infrastructure	1.32%	9,074.00	8,955.35
Nifty Banks	1.28%	54,809.30	54,114.55
Nifty MNC	1.25%	30,245.45	29,873.05
Nifty Capital Markets	0.85%	4,307.65	4,271.35
Nifty FMCG	0.47%	56,557.15	56,292.10
Nifty Consumer Durables	-1.02%	39,418.95	39,825.95

Data Source: NSE

For the week, 19 out of 20 sectors delivered positive returns, with only Consumer Durables giving negative returns. On the upside, the big thrust came from Defence and IT, while PSU Banks, CPSEs, and NBFCs also chipped in. Out of 19 gaining sectors; 7 sectors gained over 2%, of which 2 sectors gained over 4%.

Average returns of 20 sectors stood at 1.92%. The top 5 sectors delivered 3.80% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 2.85%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered 0.99%, showing positive momentum in the market. Going ahead, the key factors in the coming week will be WPI inflation, Trade deficit, and the US Fed rate decision and quarterly projections.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

On the positive side, India saw a thaw in its relations with the US, at least verbally. That is a good sign. The consumer inflation bounced in August, but at 2.07%, it is still well below the average inflation target of 4%. SEBI announced key changes to MPS in its board meeting and boosted ease of doing business for FPIs. Infosys announced its ₹18,000 Crore mega buyback; but the big positive news was that India produced 11 unicorns in the first half of 2025.

On the downside, Trump is now trying to convince the EU and other NATO members to impose sanctions on India and China. Indian rupee continued to be weak around ₹88.30/$, despite a weak dollar index, as hedging pressures are piling up. India has been struggling to complete its income tax filing by the revised deadline of 15-Sep and another delay is possible. Fed is likely to cut rates in September; a new challenge for the RBI.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO SEPTEMBER 19, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• India announces its WPI inflation and trade data in the coming week. While trade deficit had shown signs of pressure in July at $27.35 Billion, the CAD could see some tariff pressure this time. WPI inflation is likely to bounce in tandem with CPI.
• The US Fed meet is scheduled this week with a 25-bps rate cut almost a done deal. Several traders are even rooting for a 50-bps rate cut, although that may be hard to justify considering that inflation spiked by 20 bps in the US.
• Along with September Fed meeting statement, the FOMC will also release its long-term quarterly projection update for key macros like GDP growth, unemployment, headline inflation, core inflation, and the outlook for rates. The updates will hold the key.
• The IPO market is likely to raise ₹600 Crore this week, but the focus will now be on the big IPOs coming up. That includes the mega IPOs of Tata Capital, Lenskart etc. In the previous week, the market showed robust retail and QIB appetite for most IPOs.
• Key global data points. Fed policy, Retail Sales, IIP, API Crude Stocks, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet (US). Trade, IIP, CPI, Wages (EU); Trade Balance, BOJ Policy, CPI (Japan); IIP, Unemployment (China); Jobs, CPI, MPC Vote (UK).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to September 19, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX tapered from 10.78 to 10.12. despite tariffs. The VIX touched a low of 9.85 during the week; and it remains to be seen if markets take support at low VIX levels!

• Nifty closed the week at 25,114 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,055 and major support at 24,953. Immediate resistance is at 25,156 and later at 25,258. Nifty remains a Long-Trade, unless it breaks below 24,912 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 81,905 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 81,700 and major support at 81,348. Immediate resistance is at 82,051 and later at 82,403. Sensex remains a Long-Trade, till it breaks below 81,232 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

The focus next week will be on the Fed meeting and the Fed projections, which will give a clearer direction on where the US economy is headed!