Market outlook for the week (22-Sep to 26-Sep, 2025)

22 Sep 2025 , 11:25 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO SEPTEMBER 19, 2025

The week to September 19, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex gaining +0.85% and +0.88% respectively. During the week, FPIs were net buyers in Indian equities worth $322 Million, a sign of FPIs still being tentative. Here are 20 key sectors, indexed by weekly returns.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (19-Sep)	Index (12-Sep)
Nifty PSU Banks	4.83%	7,397.75	7,057.05
Nifty Realty	4.43%	923.50	884.35
Nifty India Defence	3.41%	8,318.80	8,044.70
Nifty Oil & Gas	2.18%	11,333.30	11,091.15
Nifty India Digital	1.96%	9,287.05	9,108.80
Nifty Mobility	1.86%	22,927.10	22,507.40
Nifty Infrastructure	1.80%	9,237.50	9,074.00
Nifty Capital Markets	1.72%	4,381.55	4,307.65
Nifty CPSE	1.53%	6,500.30	6,402.30
Nifty Automobiles	1.31%	27,219.55	26,866.65
Nifty IT	1.29%	36,578.25	36,110.75
Nifty Banks	1.19%	55,458.85	54,809.30
Nifty Metals	1.08%	9,989.90	9,883.60
Nifty Private Banks	0.95%	26,972.40	26,717.80
Nifty Healthcare	0.90%	14,881.05	14,747.80
Nifty MNC	0.85%	30,502.10	30,245.45
Nifty non-Banks	0.76%	30,144.20	29,915.35
Nifty Chemicals	0.72%	30,032.02	29,818.42
Nifty Consumer Durables	-0.20%	39,342.00	39,418.95
Nifty FMCG	-0.50%	56,273.05	56,557.15

Data Source: NSE

For the week, 18 out of 20 sectors delivered positive returns, with Consumer Durables and FMCG giving negative returns. On upside, the big thrust came from PSU Banks, Realty and Defence. PSU banks and realty gained on rate cut hopes, and defence on strategic large orders. Out of 18 gaining sectors; 13 sectors gained over 1%, while 4 sectors gained over 2%.

Average returns of 20 sectors stood at 1.60%. The top 5 sectors delivered 3.36% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 2.50%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered 0.70%, showing positive momentum in the market. Going ahead, the key factors in the coming week will be core sector data, as well as the US PCE inflation and third estimate of Q2 GDP.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

On the positive side, India saw its trade deficit narrowing marginally in August and the services surplus expanding. In another positive for markets, the uncertainty over the SEBI case on Adani group is over as SEBI has quashed most of the Hindenburg charges. India is seeing consumption potential unleased at grassroots with the number of millionaires having doubled in India between 2021 and 2025. Crude import bill was sharply lower.

On the downside, the WPI inflation came in sharply higher portending higher input costs for corporates. Also, the Fed decision to cut rates aggressively in 2025 and 2026, will put pressure on the RBI to follow suit; something that can potentially weaken the rupee. The chances of an Indo-US trade deal are starting to look brighter but the indications coming from Trump on the H1-B visa side does not appear to be too encouraging.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO SEPTEMBER 26, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• India core sector growth for August will be a key factor. The markets will specifically look at the growth in cement and steel, which have been robust in recent months. They also have major implications for infrastructure growth in India.
• The coming week is likely to be a busy week with more than 11 IPOs hitting the primary market on the mainboard itself. In addition, there will be SME IPOs too. With such a spread of IPOs, it remains to be seen if investor enthusiasm can be sustained.
• The US BEA will put out two crucial bits of data this week; PCE inflation for August and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. These data points will underline if the aggressive rate cut stance adopted by the FOMC is really justified, and the road ahead.
• With Piyush Goyal slated to visit the US shortly, all eyes will be on the next steps on the trade deal. While there has been warmth between the two leaders, past experience shows that this does not always result in better relations between the two nations.
• Key global data points. Current Account, PMI, API Crude Stocks, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Jobless Claims, Retail Inventories (US). PMI, ECB Bulletin (EU); BOJ Minutes, PMI, Core CPI (Japan); PBOC Loan Rates (China); PMI, BOE Speak (UK).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to September 26, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX tapered from 10.12 to 9.97, despite market uncertainty. The VIX touched a low of 9.40 during the week; and it remains to be seen if markets rebound from low VIX levels!

• Nifty closed the week at 25,327 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,266 and major support at 25,124. Immediate resistance is at 25,408 and later at 25,551. Nifty remains a Long-Trade, unless it breaks below 25,231 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 82,626 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 82,415 and major support at 81,923. Immediate resistance is at 82,908 and later at 83,401. Sensex remains a Long-Trade, till it breaks below 82,394 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

The focus next week will be on the core sector data, US GDP, US PCE inflation and, of course, the noises coming from the Indo-US trade deal front.