Market outlook for the week (24-Nov to 28-Nov, 2025)

24 Nov 2025 , 11:01 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO NOVEMBER 21, 2025

The week to November 21, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex rise by 0.61% and 0.79% respectively. During the week, FPIs net bought Indian equities worth $261 Million. For the week, FPI’s continued to be tentative amidst the sharp fall in the Indian rupee to ₹89.64/$.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (21-Nov)	Index (14-Nov)
Nifty IT	1.61%	36,885.35	36,301.25
Nifty Automobiles	1.09%	27,537.85	27,239.80
Nifty Private Banks	0.72%	28,396.60	28,192.50
Nifty India Digital	0.69%	9,372.15	9,308.15
Nifty Banks	0.60%	58,867.70	58,517.55
Nifty Infrastructure	0.44%	9,661.45	9,619.00
Nifty Mobility	0.35%	23,068.45	22,987.05
Nifty Capital Markets	0.33%	4,736.10	4,720.45
Nifty FMCG	-0.10%	55,504.70	55,560.80
Nifty Consumer Durables	-0.12%	38,093.85	38,138.75
Nifty PSU Banks	-0.25%	8,378.70	8,399.90
Nifty Healthcare	-0.32%	14,824.25	14,871.85
Nifty MNC	-0.36%	30,063.65	30,172.00
Nifty Oil & Gas	-0.38%	12,143.95	12,190.10
Nifty Chemicals	-0.57%	28,913.35	29,078.35
Nifty Non-Banks	-0.58%	31,652.00	31,837.15
Nifty CPSE	-0.84%	6,443.70	6,498.00
Nifty India Defence	-2.07%	8,116.40	8,287.85
Nifty Metals	-3.36%	10,142.55	10,494.75
Nifty Realty	-3.78%	905.60	941.15

Data Source: NSE

For the week, 8 sectors gave positive returns, while 12 gave negative returns. IT, Automobiles, Private Banks, and India Digital recorded best gains. On the downside; Realty was again under pressure; as was metals and defence. Out of 8 gaining sectors; 2 sectors gained over 1% during the week.

Here is a quick look at the story behind the big gainers and losers this week. On the upside, the rally was driven by better corporate spending for IT and better retail demand for autos. Private banks jumped after a long gap. On the downside, realty and metals are seeing some sharp unwinding. Defence was hit by the Tejas crash and HAL concerns on execution.

Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at -0.34%. The top 5 sectors delivered 0.94% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 0.56%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered -1.25%, showing pressure on the downside. Going ahead, the key triggers in the coming week will be the IIP, GDP data, and the US GDP growth and PCE inflation.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY

On the positive side, the Fed minutes indicating delay in rate cuts is good for the RBI, as it reduces the pressure. On the IPO front, 4 out of 5 IPOs listing in the week had a positive close on Day-1, with 2025 already promising to better 2024 in terms of IPO flows. India’s defence output touched ₹1.55 Trillion in FY25, although that needs to be scaled up to meet the growing demand. TCS and TPG are also collaborating for a $2 billion AI data centre.

On the downside, the rupee weakened sharply to beyond ₹89.50/$ as the merchandise trade deficit widened to $41.6 Billion. The low inflation at 0.25% is also visible in flat core sector growth at 0.0%, down from 6.5% just two months back. Indian companies are sitting on $14.2 Trillion of cash, but capex is still elusive. Also, Indian companies have seen a 7% spike in debt levels in Q2FY26. Growth concerns are also visible in PMI hitting 9-month lows.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO NOVEMBER 28, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• India IIP growth for November will be announced on Friday. In October, the IIP growth of 4.0% was led by manufacturing growth at 4.8%. However, indications from the PMI manufacturing indicate that manufacturing IIP may take a hit in November.
• The all-important Q2FY26 GDP will be put out this weekend. After surprising the street on the upside at 7.8%, the sharp fall in the core sector and the IIP in this week indicate that GDP growth for Q2 may be under 7%. This is likely to impact the full year growth.
• Fiscal deficit update for the 7 months ending October will also be announced on Friday. This is a tricky area since it looks increasingly unlikely that the government will be able to defend 4.4% fiscal deficit this year. This update will provide the cues.
• The US BEA will announce the PCE Inflation for Sep-25 and the first estimate of Q3-GDP on 26-Nov. Data flows have been long overdue and this will provide the perfect decision platform for the FOMC to embark on a rate decision in the December meeting.
• Key global data points. IIP, Retail Sales, PPI, Business Inventories, Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, Fed Balance Sheet (US). ECB Speak, ECB FSR (EU); Core CPI, Industrial Production (Japan); Autumn Forecast Statement (UK); Composite PMI (China).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to November 28, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX spiked sharply from 11.94 levels to 13.63 levels, amid rising uncertainty and a weak rupee. The fear factor appears to be coming back after a gap of a few weeks.

• Nifty closed the week at 26,068 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 26,021 and major support at 25,894. Immediate resistance is at 26,148 and later at 26,275. Nifty remains a Long Trade, unless it breaks below 25,959 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 85,232 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 85,077 and major support at 84,655. Immediate resistance is at 85,498 and later at 85,920. Sensex remains a Long Trade, till it breaks below 84,861 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

The focus next week will be on the critical data flows like India IIP, India fiscal deficit and Q2 GDP; as well as the US PCE inflation and Q3 GDP estimates. The big factor to watch out for next week will be the Indian rupee, which is now tantalizing close to ₹90/$.