Market outlook for the week (27-Oct to 31-Oct, 2025)

27 Oct 2025 , 07:03 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO OCTOBER 24, 2025

The week to October 24, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex gain +0.33% and +0.31% respectively. During the week, FPIs net bought Indian equities of $97 Million. For the week, FPIs showed confidence but stayed cautious due to being a truncated trading week.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (24-Oct)	Index (17-Oct)
Nifty IT	2.96%	35,986.35	34,950.70
Nifty PSU Banks	2.34%	7,817.40	7,638.75
Nifty Metals	1.45%	10,347.45	10,199.30
Nifty India Digital	1.19%	9,257.75	9,148.80
Nifty Oil & Gas	1.10%	11,624.05	11,498.10
Nifty CPSE	0.91%	6,615.45	6,556.00
Nifty Non-Banks	0.87%	31,288.05	31,017.20
Nifty Realty	0.77%	940.90	933.75
Nifty India Defence	0.71%	8,182.25	8,124.35
Nifty Infrastructure	0.63%	9,396.95	9,338.55
Nifty Private Banks	0.34%	28,335.25	28,239.95
Nifty Banks	-0.02%	57,699.60	57,713.35
Nifty Healthcare	-0.03%	14,862.85	14,866.90
Nifty MNC	-0.11%	30,172.25	30,205.00
Nifty Capital Markets	-0.38%	4,615.65	4,633.35
Nifty Automobiles	-0.44%	27,108.70	27,228.60
Nifty FMCG	-0.47%	56,348.10	56,616.40
Nifty Consumer Durables	-0.50%	38,822.80	39,018.55
Nifty Chemicals	-0.62%	29,186.56	29,368.57
Nifty Mobility	-0.72%	22,802.10	22,966.65

Data Source: NSE

For the week, 11 sectors gave positive returns, while 9 gave negative returns. IT, PSU Banks, Metals, Digital, and Oil & Gas recorded best gains. On the downside; Mobility, Chemicals, Consumer Durables, and FMCG were under pressure. Out of 11 gaining sectors; 5 sectors gained more than 1%; of which 2 sectors gained over 2% during the week.

Average returns of 20 sectors stood at 0.50%. The top 5 sectors delivered 1.81% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 1.29%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered -0.30%, showing marginal pressure in markets. Going ahead, the key triggers in the coming week will be the India IIP data, fiscal deficit update, US Fed Statement, and US GDP & PCE Inflation data.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

On the positive side, US inflation came in higher than expected at 3.0%. With inadequate data flows, Fed may be cautious on rate cuts, and that should help the RBI. India has an impressive IPO line-up for the rest of 2025; with big names like Groww, Lenskart, and Physicswallah to play a part in IPOs worth ₹41,000 Crore in the last 2 months. On the positive side, the controversy over Tata Sons appears to have finally been put to rest.

On the downside, the US shutdown continues to cast its shadow. India saw halving off core sector growth in September as fossil fuel production came under pressure. SEBI barred mutual funds from participating in pre-IPO placements, which could put mutual funds at a disadvantage. For India, there has not been much progress on the tariff talks with the US, as both the US and India appear to be sticking to their guns on their core demands.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO OCTOBER 31, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• The IIP growth for September will be announced this week. August IIP was at 4.0%, but the sharp fall in core sector growth and a general slowdown in manufacturing growth could impact IIP for September. Some pressure is expected on the IIP number.
• India will also put out its updated fiscal deficit for the first 6 months of FY26. The pace of fiscal deficit has picked up in the last 3 months since the RBI dividend. It remains to be seen if the government can still defend the fiscal deficit target of 4.4% in FY26.
• US Fed meets later this week and the Fed statement will be largely based on inadequate data due to the shutdown impact. While jobs data was not put out for September, CPI inflation is 10 bps higher. The Fed may be cautious on the rate cut front.
• The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will announce the first estimate of Q3 GDP and the PCE inflation for September this week. Both are critical inputs, but they will come after the Fed meet. Once again, inadequate access to data remains a challenge!
• Key global data points. New Home Sales, Trade Deficit, Fed Balance Sheet, Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Speak, Retail Inventories, and PMI (US). GDP, Unemployment, CPI (EU); CPI, BOJ Rate Policy, IIP (Japan); Nationwide HPI (UK); Composite PMI (China).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to October 31, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX was almost flat at 11.59 levels, and stayed in a narrow range for the week. The fear factor appears to be gradually building up in markets.

• Nifty closed the week at 25,795 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,801 and major support at 25,559. Immediate resistance is at 26,043 and later at 26,285. Nifty remains a Long Trade, unless it breaks below 25,781 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 84,212 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 84,238 and major support at 83,393. Immediate resistance is at 85,083 and later at 85,927. Sensex remains a Long Trade, till it breaks below 84,182 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

The focus next week will be on the domestic and global data points; but Q2FY26 results will drive the high-frequency market sentiments!