Mid-caps have another tough month in January 2025

7 Feb 2025 , 09:57 AM

MONTHLY RETURNS NEGATIVE, ANNUAL RETURNS STILL GOOD

After a marginally positive performance in December 2024, the mid-cap index corrected by a full -6.51% in January 2025. With a volatile rupee, shaky oil prices and the highly volatile Trump Trade, there was an unwillingness to bet on mid-caps at this juncture. Valuations are still a concern for mid-caps, but the real issue is about the uncertainty in the global markets. At some stage in the near future, traders and investors may start to separate the wheat from the chaff, but that time is yet to come. For now, it is a cautious plan on mid-caps.

HOW MID-CAP STOCKS FARED IN JANUARY 2025

After giving marginally positive returns in December 2024, there was a sharp correction in the mid-caps in January 2025. Here is the mid-cap story in numbers.

• For the month of January 2025, Nifty Mid-Cap 100 fell by -6.51%. Out of the 97 mid-caps with full data, 8 companies generated double-digit returns and 14 companies gave over 5%. However, only 28 out of 97 companies gave positive returns in January 2025.
• For the year to January 2025, Nifty Mid-Cap 100 gained 11.21%. Out of the 97 mid-caps with full data, 2 companies generated over 100% returns, and 10 companies over 50%. Total of 58 out of 97 companies gave positive returns in year to January 2025.
• What about resilience? Nifty Mid-Cap 100 bounced 18.09% from the lows. Out of the 97 mic-caps with full data, 1 company bounced over 200%, 7 companies bounced over 100%, and 24 bounced over 50%. Total of 21 companies bounced under 10% from lows.
• What about swing, or proximity to high price. The index swing factor deteriorated to 12.21%. A total of 10 out of 97 companies are less than 10% from the peaks.

Let us look at mid-cap stocks from the perspective of momentum?

HOW WERE MID-CAP MOMENTUM RETURNS IN JANUARY 2025

In terms of 1-month returns, the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 gave -6.51%. Out of the 97 eligible stocks in the index, only 28 stocks gave positive returns. Here are the top-15.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
SRF	2,829.90	27.07%	21.72%	2,895.00	2,089.10	35.46%	2.25%
UPL	599.20	20.63%	13.90%	617.80	430.58	39.16%	3.01%
BDL	1,276.00	15.11%	-23.42%	1,794.70	776.05	64.42%	28.90%
SBICARD	829.60	14.81%	9.31%	833.50	647.95	28.03%	0.47%
IDEA	9.36	12.98%	-36.04%	19.18	6.61	41.60%	51.20%
SUNDARMFIN	4,521.05	12.95%	31.03%	5,535.85	3,462.00	30.59%	18.33%
MAZDOCK	2,373.00	11.35%	11.81%	2,930.00	897.70	164.34%	19.01%
RVNL	431.40	11.26%	60.07%	647.00	213.05	102.49%	33.32%
ESCORTS	3,457.70	9.82%	25.73%	4,420.00	2,648.40	30.56%	21.77%
BANKINDIA	108.59	9.63%	-22.61%	157.95	90.05	20.59%	31.25%
INDIANB	535.45	7.38%	6.07%	632.70	467.30	14.58%	15.37%
M&MFIN	283.45	7.31%	0.14%	343.00	246.20	15.13%	17.36%
AUBANK	600.70	5.70%	-5.35%	755.40	534.45	12.40%	20.48%
IDBI	79.00	5.60%	-6.92%	107.90	65.89	19.90%	26.78%
COLPAL	2,900.85	4.44%	12.71%	3,890.00	2,476.25	17.15%	25.43%

Data Source: NSE

In terms of sectoral mix; the top-15 had 7 BFSI stocks (SBI Cards, Sundaram Finance, Bank of India, Indian Bank, M&M Finance, AU Bank, and IDBI Bank), 2 defence stocks (BDL and Mazagon Docks), and 2 Chemical stocks (SRF Ltd and UPL Ltd). The worst performers in January 2025 were largely bottom-up plays, so they were sectorally spread out.

HOW MID-CAPS DELIVERED ON 1-YEAR RETURNS?

Mid cap stocks as a whole, delivered 11.21% in last one year. Out of 97 mid-cap stocks, 2 stocks more than doubled yoy, while 10 stocks gave over 50% returns. A total of 39 stocks gave negative returns yoy. Here are the top-15 on 1-year returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
DIXON	14,664.75	-16.72%	144.69%	19,148.90	6,051.10	142.35%	23.42%
BSE	5,387.00	-2.21%	112.80%	6,133.40	1,941.05	177.53%	12.17%
POLICYBZR	1,702.75	-18.52%	73.06%	2,246.90	852.00	99.85%	24.22%
COCHINSHIP	1,462.00	-2.21%	68.10%	2,979.45	713.35	104.95%	50.93%
MUTHOOTFIN	2,184.00	1.98%	65.98%	2,275.00	1,261.90	73.07%	4.00%
SOLARINDS	10,058.00	3.35%	60.75%	13,298.00	6,275.00	60.29%	24.36%
RVNL	431.40	11.26%	60.07%	647.00	213.05	102.49%	33.32%
INDUSTOWER	348.00	0.94%	58.54%	460.35	206.35	68.65%	24.41%
INDHOTEL	801.20	-12.47%	54.63%	894.90	486.95	64.53%	10.47%
KALYANKJIL	502.50	-35.15%	50.61%	795.40	321.95	56.08%	36.82%
HINDZINC	445.80	1.37%	41.89%	807.70	284.60	56.64%	44.81%
POLYCAB	5,856.00	-17.75%	41.60%	7,605.00	4,236.00	38.24%	23.00%
OFSS	8,899.00	-27.78%	41.58%	13,220.00	6,381.00	39.46%	32.69%
JUBLFOOD	739.05	-4.78%	40.25%	796.75	421.05	75.53%	7.24%
TORNTPOWER	1,401.90	-2.06%	39.15%	2,037.00	1,045.05	34.15%	31.18%

Data Source: NSE

On a yoy basis, the list was spread out across sectors, since it was more of a bottom up story for mid-caps. Some of the sectors included New Energy, Microchips, EMS, financial inclusion, retailing, telecom, and ecommerce. The list at the bottom was BFSI dominated, including Poonawala Fincorp, Bandhan Bank, IDFC First Bank, and Bank of India.

HOW RESILIENT WERE MID-CAP STOCKS IN LAST ONE YEAR?

In terms of bounce from the lows, the mid-caps overall bounced 28.29%. Total of 15 stocks more than doubled, and 34 jumped over 50%. Top-20 average bounce was 137.12%.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
PERSISTENT	5,906.65	-6.28%	-27.28%	6,788.90	1,965.50	200.52%	13.00%
BSE	5,387.00	-2.21%	112.80%	6,133.40	1,941.05	177.53%	12.17%
MAZDOCK	2,373.00	11.35%	11.81%	2,930.00	897.70	164.34%	19.01%
DIXON	14,664.75	-16.72%	144.69%	19,148.90	6,051.10	142.35%	23.42%
PAYTM	741.80	-21.45%	27.38%	1,062.95	310.00	139.29%	30.21%
COCHINSHIP	1,462.00	-2.21%	68.10%	2,979.45	713.35	104.95%	50.93%
RVNL	431.40	11.26%	60.07%	647.00	213.05	102.49%	33.32%
POLICYBZR	1,702.75	-18.52%	73.06%	2,246.90	852.00	99.85%	24.22%
COFORGE	8,070.00	-14.17%	33.94%	10,026.80	4,287.25	88.23%	19.52%
JUBLFOOD	739.05	-4.78%	40.25%	796.75	421.05	75.53%	7.24%
MUTHOOTFIN	2,184.00	1.98%	65.98%	2,275.00	1,261.90	73.07%	4.00%
INDUSTOWER	348.00	0.94%	58.54%	460.35	206.35	68.65%	24.41%
INDHOTEL	801.20	-12.47%	54.63%	894.90	486.95	64.53%	10.47%
BDL	1,276.00	15.11%	-23.42%	1,794.70	776.05	64.42%	28.90%
SUZLON	58.27	-10.96%	20.68%	86.04	35.50	64.14%	32.28%

Data Source: NSE

On resilience score, the list was dominated by 5 new age tech (Persistent, Dixon, Paytm, OFSS, and Coforge). There were also 3 PSUs in the list. The remaining stocks in the above list (Mazagon Dockyards, Cochin Shipyards, and BDL). The rest were spread out and synced with 1-year return rankings list. The list at the bottom was Sona Components, TI India, MRF, Tata Communications, Tata Chemicals, and Delhivery Ltd.

HOW CLOSE WERE MID-CAPS TO THE YEARLY HIGHS?

In terms of proximity to the peak, the index was just 12.21% short of the peak. Total of 10 stocks are less than 10% to the peak while 37 stocks are over 30% from the peak levels.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
SBICARD	829.60	14.81%	9.31%	833.50	647.95	28.03%	0.47%
SRF	2,829.90	27.07%	21.72%	2,895.00	2,089.10	35.46%	2.25%
UPL	599.20	20.63%	13.90%	617.80	430.58	39.16%	3.01%
MUTHOOTFIN	2,184.00	1.98%	65.98%	2,275.00	1,261.90	73.07%	4.00%
PAGEIND	46,501.00	-6.41%	20.83%	49,849.95	33,070.05	40.61%	6.72%
MARICO	686.25	4.14%	25.12%	736.90	486.30	41.12%	6.87%
JUBLFOOD	739.05	-4.78%	40.25%	796.75	421.05	75.53%	7.24%
BIOCON	371.05	-1.69%	34.30%	404.70	244.55	51.73%	8.31%
MAXHEALTH	1,116.20	-6.88%	32.14%	1,227.95	706.45	58.00%	9.10%
PATANJALI	1,806.95	0.82%	16.19%	1,992.20	1,169.95	54.45%	9.30%
INDHOTEL	801.20	-12.47%	54.63%	894.90	486.95	64.53%	10.47%
BSE	5,387.00	-2.21%	112.80%	6,133.40	1,941.05	177.53%	12.17%
PERSISTENT	5,906.65	-6.28%	-27.28%	6,788.90	1,965.50	200.52%	13.00%
APLAPOLLO	1,501.85	-4.79%	1.16%	1,728.95	1,305.00	15.08%	13.14%
MPHASIS	2,799.00	0.46%	10.30%	3,237.95	2,187.00	27.98%	13.56%

Data Source: NSE

In terms of proximity to the peak, the list is dominated by financials (SBI Cards, Muthoot Finance, and BSE), Healthcare (Biocon, Max Health, and Patanjali), and Chemicals (SRF and UPL). Companies farthest from the peak were largely PSUs, financials, and defence stocks. Most of these stocks have struggled to bounce after falling from the peak.

There is evidence of alpha hunting in mid-caps. However, this is restricted to specific sectors like BFSI, technology, and healthcare.