Mid-caps rally in Mar-25, but well short of yearly highs

2 Apr 2025 , 09:39 AM

DEFENCE LEADS MID-CAP BOUNCE IN MARCH 2025

After two months of a big sell-off, Mid-cap 100 index recovered to close in the green in March 2025. Amidst the tariff uncertainty; two factors helped the mid-caps. The rupee hardened substantially to ₹85.5/$, while Brent Crude was subdued around $72/bbl. But, the one sector that triggered a rally in mid-caps was the defence space. An array of mid-cap defence plays rallied on hopes of aggressive defence spending by EU, after Germany announced a massive defence outlay. Also, the Indian government has held its faith in the Indian defence sector, expanding the in-sourcing substantially from local defence players. Of course, the Mid-Caps are still far away from the highs, so there is still a long way to go!

HOW WERE MID-CAP MOMENTUM RETURNS IN MARCH 2025

In terms of 1-month returns, the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 gave 7.84%. Out of the 91 eligible stocks in the index, only 80 stocks gave positive returns, while just 11 stocks gave negative returns. Here are the top-15.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BDL	1,290.00	31.37%	-26.86%	1,794.70	842.50	53.12%	28.12%
SOLARINDS	11,233.95	29.08%	28.04%	13,298.00	7,888.25	42.41%	15.52%
MAZDOCK	2,643.00	24.06%	41.83%	2,930.00	927.53	184.95%	9.80%
HINDPETRO	361.50	22.67%	-24.24%	457.15	287.55	25.72%	20.92%
BHEL	215.15	20.80%	-12.48%	335.35	176.00	22.24%	35.84%
HUDCO	198.85	20.78%	6.52%	353.70	158.85	25.18%	43.78%
GLENMARK	1,538.00	20.49%	60.79%	1,830.95	947.30	62.36%	16.00%
ABCAPITAL	184.99	18.38%	5.51%	246.90	149.01	24.15%	25.07%
BSE	5,438.00	18.26%	117.81%	6,133.40	2,115.00	157.12%	11.34%
HINDZINC	461.00	18.19%	58.02%	807.70	290.10	58.91%	42.92%
TORNTPOWER	1,487.00	17.73%	9.49%	2,037.00	1,207.25	23.17%	27.00%
TATACOMM	1,575.00	16.69%	-21.50%	2,175.00	1,291.00	22.00%	27.59%
BHARATFORG	1,159.45	15.02%	3.50%	1,804.50	1,002.15	15.70%	35.75%
MFSL	1,146.65	14.99%	14.52%	1,306.45	864.00	32.71%	12.23%
APOLLOTYRE	424.45	13.83%	-8.66%	584.90	370.90	14.44%	27.43%

Data Source: NSE

In terms of sectoral mix; the top-15 had 5 Defence stocks (Bharat Dynamics, Solar Industries, Mazagon Docks, BHEL, and Bharat Forge), 3 BFSI stocks (AB Capital, BSE, and HUDCO), and 2 Commodity stocks (HPCL and Hindustan Zinc). The worst performers in February 2025 were largely bottom-up plays, and included Idea, Sona Steering, IDFC Bank, and AU Bank.

HOW MID-CAPS DELIVERED ON 1-YEAR RETURNS?

Mid cap stocks as a whole, delivered 7.48% in last one year. Out of 91 mid-cap stocks, only 1 stock more than doubled yoy, while 7 stocks gave over 50% returns. A total of 37 stocks gave negative returns yoy. Here are the top-15.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BSE	5,438.00	18.26%	117.81%	6,133.40	2,115.00	157.12%	11.34%
PAYTM	783.00	9.58%	94.57%	1,062.95	310.00	152.58%	26.34%
DIXON	13,175.00	-5.43%	76.21%	19,148.90	7,198.35	83.03%	31.20%
COCHINSHIP	1,407.60	10.98%	61.49%	2,979.45	865.00	62.73%	52.76%
MUTHOOTFIN	2,375.00	11.73%	60.96%	2,435.40	1,448.25	63.99%	2.48%
GLENMARK	1,538.00	20.49%	60.79%	1,830.95	947.30	62.36%	16.00%
HINDZINC	461.00	18.19%	58.02%	807.70	290.10	58.91%	42.92%
JUBLFOOD	664.00	6.11%	48.01%	796.75	429.60	54.56%	16.66%
COFORGE	8,069.95	10.15%	47.37%	10,026.80	4,287.25	88.23%	19.52%
MAZDOCK	2,643.00	24.06%	41.83%	2,930.00	927.53	184.95%	9.80%
POLICYBZR	1,591.00	8.62%	41.41%	2,246.90	1,101.05	44.50%	29.19%
UPL	637.20	0.52%	39.53%	671.30	434.71	46.58%	5.08%
RVNL	350.80	5.85%	39.13%	647.00	245.00	43.18%	45.78%
PERSISTENT	5,483.85	3.96%	38.38%	6,788.90	2,005.00	173.51%	19.22%
PATANJALI	1,803.00	2.72%	35.12%	1,992.20	1,169.95	54.11%	9.50%

Data Source: NSE

On a yoy basis, the list was spread out across sectors, since it was more of a bottom up story for mid-caps. Some of the themes include Financial Inclusion (BSE, Paytm, Muthoot Finance, Policybazaar); IT (Coforge, Persistent); Defence (Cochin Shipyards, Mazagon Docks); and FMCG (Jubilant Foods, Patanjali). The names at the bottom were stock specific names like Vodafone Idea, Phoenix, Oil India, Astral, Adani Total Gas, Tata Tech, and Tata Elxsi.

HOW RESILIENT WERE MID-CAP STOCKS IN LAST ONE YEAR?

In terms of bounce from the lows, the mid-caps overall bounced 10.26%. Total of 4 stocks more than doubled, and 13 jumped over 50%. Top-20 average bounce was 78.19%.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
MAZDOCK	2,643.00	24.06%	41.83%	2,930.00	927.53	184.95%	9.80%
PERSISTENT	5,483.85	3.96%	38.38%	6,788.90	2,005.00	173.51%	19.22%
BSE	5,438.00	18.26%	117.81%	6,133.40	2,115.00	157.12%	11.34%
PAYTM	783.00	9.58%	94.57%	1,062.95	310.00	152.58%	26.34%
COFORGE	8,069.95	10.15%	47.37%	10,026.80	4,287.25	88.23%	19.52%
DIXON	13,175.00	-5.43%	76.21%	19,148.90	7,198.35	83.03%	31.20%
MUTHOOTFIN	2,375.00	11.73%	60.96%	2,435.40	1,448.25	63.99%	2.48%
COCHINSHIP	1,407.60	10.98%	61.49%	2,979.45	865.00	62.73%	52.76%
GLENMARK	1,538.00	20.49%	60.79%	1,830.95	947.30	62.36%	16.00%
HINDZINC	461.00	18.19%	58.02%	807.70	290.10	58.91%	42.92%
JUBLFOOD	664.00	6.11%	48.01%	796.75	429.60	54.56%	16.66%
PATANJALI	1,803.00	2.72%	35.12%	1,992.20	1,169.95	54.11%	9.50%
BDL	1,290.00	31.37%	-26.86%	1,794.70	842.50	53.12%	28.12%
MOTILALOFS	615.00	4.56%	-63.08%	1,064.00	413.11	48.87%	42.20%
MAXHEALTH	1,102.00	12.15%	33.79%	1,227.95	743.10	48.30%	10.26%

Data Source: NSE

On resilience score, the list was dominated by 4 new age tech (Persistent, Dixon, Paytm, and Coforge); 3 defence stocks (Cochin Shipyards, Mazagon Docks, and Bharat Dynamics); 3 BFSI stocks (BSE, Muthoot Finance, Motilal Oswal); and 2 healthcare stocks (Glenmark, Max Health). The list was largely synced with 1-year return rankings. The list at the bottom included Sona Steering, Tata Elxsi, Colgate Palmolive, Vodafone Idea, and IDFC First Bank.

HOW CLOSE WERE MID-CAPS TO THE YEARLY HIGHS?

In terms of proximity to the peak, the index was still 15.19 % short of the peak. Total of 6 stocks are less than 10% to the peak while 42 stocks are over 30% from peak levels.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
SBICARD	878.45	5.04%	29.09%	884.50	647.95	35.57%	0.68%
MUTHOOTFIN	2,375.00	11.73%	60.96%	2,435.40	1,448.25	63.99%	2.48%
SRF	2,939.40	5.14%	14.80%	3,054.90	2,089.10	40.70%	3.78%
UPL	637.20	0.52%	39.53%	671.30	434.71	46.58%	5.08%
PATANJALI	1,803.00	2.72%	35.12%	1,992.20	1,169.95	54.11%	9.50%
MAZDOCK	2,643.00	24.06%	41.83%	2,930.00	927.53	184.95%	9.80%
MAXHEALTH	1,102.00	12.15%	33.79%	1,227.95	743.10	48.30%	10.26%
FEDERALBNK	193.30	8.51%	28.32%	217.00	148.00	30.61%	10.92%
BSE	5,438.00	18.26%	117.81%	6,133.40	2,115.00	157.12%	11.34%
MARICO	652.95	8.50%	31.06%	736.90	490.55	33.11%	11.39%
APLAPOLLO	1,520.25	6.00%	1.96%	1,728.95	1,272.70	19.45%	12.07%
MFSL	1,146.65	14.99%	14.52%	1,306.45	864.00	32.71%	12.23%
PAGEIND	43,075.00	5.38%	23.93%	49,849.95	33,814.85	27.38%	13.59%
INDIANB	540.50	5.97%	3.96%	632.70	473.90	14.05%	14.57%
SOLARINDS	11,233.95	29.08%	28.04%	13,298.00	7,888.25	42.41%	15.52%

Data Source: NSE

In terms of proximity to the peak, the list is dominated by 6 financials (SBI Cards, Muthoot Finance, Federal Bank, BSE, Max Financial, Indian Bank); and Chemicals (SRF and UPL). Companies farthest from the peak were stocks like Idea, Cochin Shipyards, Oil India, Adani Total Gas, IREDA, and Astral. Volatile markets are really not supporting alpha hunting!