Pharma Export data (Q4 QTD): Weak for Divi’s/ Gland; strong for Sun/Zydus led by Revlimid

12 Mar 2024 , 11:44 AM

Pharma Export data for Jan & Feb-24 implies that Q4 QTD export trends are weak for Divi’s, Gland and Laurus, with Q4 QTD export run-rate for these companies being 10-12% below analysts of IIFL Capital Services current forecasts. While Laurus’ animal health contract with Intervet (MSD Animal) hasn’t seen any commercial shipments since Jul-23, Syngene has shipped USD15m worth of Librela to Zoetis in Q4 QTD vs USD25m in Q3FY24. Export data trends are strong for Suven+Cohance, Neuland, Granules, Poly Medicure and JB Pharma with Q4 QTD export shipments for these companies increasing QoQ by 14-48%. Sun/Zydus/Aurobindo shipped USD140/80/30m of Revlimid in Feb-24, which is optically driving strong export growth for them in Q4 QTD. Lupin’s Spiriva shipments have moderated from USD28/64m in Q2/Q3FY24 to USD8m in Q4FY24 QTD, implying inventory stocking benefit for earlier quarters. Sun and Aurobindo remain analysts of IIFL Capital Services preferred picks among the export/diversified pharma pack.

Divi’s, Gland and Laurus’ Q4 QTD export shipments are 10-12% below analysts of IIFL Capital Services current estimates:

Divi’s and Gland’s Q4 QTD export shipments have declined 2% and 11% QoQ, while Laurus’ export shipments have been flat QoQ. Export run-rate for these companies is trending 10-12% below analysts of IIFL Capital Services current forecasts. Laurus also hasn’t seen any traction yet for its animal health contract with Intervet (MSD Animal), as there have been no commercial shipments from Laurus to Intervet since Jul’23.

Syngene has shipped USD15m worth of Librela to Zoetis in Q4 QTD vs USD25m in Q3FY24:

Against its annual contracted value of USD50m supplies for Librela, Syngene has supplied USD94m worth of Librela to Zoetis over the past 13 months, which likely implies that Librela supplies to Zoetis will continue to taper off in CY24 and will present a tough base for Syngene going ahead. Syngene shipped just USD2m worth of Librela in Feb’24 vs USD21/13m in Dec’23/Jan’24 respectively.

Q4 QTD Export data trends are strong for Suven+Cohance, Neuland, Granules, Poly Medicure and JB Pharma:

Given Q4 is a sequentially strong quarter for Suven and Cohance, analysts of IIFL Capital Services note that Suven+Cohance’s export shipments have increased 33% QoQ in Q4 QTD. However, Suven’s standalone shipments (ex-Cohance) have still declined 36% YoY in Q4 QTD. Neuland’s export shipments have increased 48% QoQ in Q4 QTD, while Granules, Poly Medicure and JB Pharma’s export shipments have gone up 14-17% QoQ in Q4 QTD. Both Concord Biotech and Blue Jet Healthcare’s export shipment trends have been muted in Q4 QTD.

Sun, Zydus and Aurobindo shipped 35-55% of their cumulative Revlimid volumes till date in Feb’24:

Sun/Zydus/Aurobindo shipped USD140/80/30m of Revlimid in Feb’24, which is optically driving strong export growth for them in Q4 QTD. Based on cumulative Revlimid volumes shipped till date and assuming 12% price erosion, analysts of IIFL Capital Services estimate that Sun/Zydus/Aurobindo have USD290/260/65m worth of Revlimid sales left to be booked in financials. Comparatively, Dr Reddy’s has no buffer sales of Revlimid left to be booked and hence will need to ship additional Revlimid volumes in Mar’24, in order to meet analysts of IIFL Capital Services Revlimid sales forecasts for Q4FY24. Ex-Revlimid export shipments for Sun, Dr. Reddy’s and Aurobindo declined 13%, 24% and 8% QoQ in Q4 QTD, while Zydus’ ex-Revlimid export shipments were largely flat QoQ in Q4 QTD.

Lupin’s Spiriva shipments have moderated from USD28/64m in Q2/Q3FY24 to USD8m in Q4FY24 QTD, implying inventory stocking benefit for earlier quarters. Lupin’s ex-Spiriva export shipments have declined 7% QoQ in Q4 QTD.