THE WEEK WAS ABOUT CENTRAL BANK MINUTES
During the week, the RBI and the US Fed published the minutes of their last monetary policy meet. While the RBI underlined that August was just a pause, the FOMC minutes showed a sharper disparity of views on the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment.
For now, the action has shifted to Jackson Hole, where Powell’s speech was still fairly ambivalent on the direction of rates. The coming week will also see key data points like India GDP, India IIP, US GDP, US PCE inflation, and India FY26 fiscal deficit update.
The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over the last 5 trading sessions.
| Date | Price (%) | Open (%) | High (%) | Low (%) |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 4.258 | 4.328 | 4.339 | 4.242 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 4.332 | 4.297 | 4.347 | 4.289 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 4.296 | 4.312 | 4.326 | 4.275 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 4.302 | 4.335 | 4.347 | 4.298 |
| Aug 18, 2025 | 4.339 | 4.320 | 4.353 | 4.289 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 4.328 | 4.289 | 4.332 | 4.269 |
Data Source: Bloomberg
The US bond yields, this week, tapered from 4.328% to 4.258%. Powell and the inflation camp may be firm on status quo, but jobs concerns and consumer spending concerns are building up. Rate cuts in September are still highly likely. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.353% and a low of 4.242%.
Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.
| Date | Price (%) | Open (%) | High (%) | Low (%) |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 97.72 | 98.60 | 98.83 | 97.56 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 98.62 | 98.25 | 98.68 | 98.18 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 98.22 | 98.29 | 98.44 | 98.08 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 98.26 | 98.15 | 98.32 | 97.94 |
| Aug 18, 2025 | 98.17 | 97.79 | 98.19 | 97.78 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 97.85 | 98.18 | 98.21 | 97.72 |
Data Source: Bloomberg
The US dollar index (DXY) rallied this week, but tapered after the Fed minutes. For the week, the dollar index almost closed flat. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 98.83 and a low of 97.56 this week. For now, 100 remains a key resistance for DXY.
The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for the last 5 trading sessions.
| Date | Price (%) | Open (%) | High (%) | Low (%) |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 6.549 | 6.545 | 6.561 | 6.532 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 6.525 | 6.506 | 6.529 | 6.501 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 6.497 | 6.519 | 6.519 | 6.490 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 6.512 | 6.492 | 6.547 | 6.492 |
| Aug 18, 2025 | 6.484 | 6.402 | 6.502 | 6.402 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 6.402 | 6.402 | 6.402 | 6.402 |
Data Source: RBI
India bond yields closed higher at 6.549% for the week after the RBI MPC minutes hinted at a propensity to wait and watch for now. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.561% and low of 6.402%. Further yield upsides may be limited.
The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.
| Date | Price (₹/$) | Open (₹/$) | High (₹/$) | Low (₹/$) |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 87.331 | 87.266 | 87.551 | 87.179 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 87.294 | 87.023 | 87.343 | 86.926 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 87.018 | 87.073 | 87.171 | 86.980 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 87.070 | 87.297 | 87.382 | 86.921 |
| Aug 18, 2025 | 87.311 | 87.545 | 87.559 | 87.296 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 87.513 | 87.692 | 87.694 | 87.410 |
Data Source: RBI
USDINR hardened from ₹87.513/$ to ₹87.331/$, despite flat dollar and rise in oil prices. The sovereign upgrade has favoured the rupee. However, dollar demand from importers continues. Last week, USDINR touched a high of ₹87.179/$ and a low of ͅ₹87.551/$.
The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.
| Date | Price ($/bbl) | Open ($/bbl) | High ($/bbl) | Low ($/bbl) |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 67.73 | 67.59 | 68.00 | 67.42 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 67.67 | 66.98 | 67.80 | 66.74 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 66.84 | 66.05 | 67.10 | 65.81 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 65.79 | 66.57 | 66.58 | 65.61 |
| Aug 18, 2025 | 66.60 | 65.85 | 66.82 | 65.30 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 65.85 | 66.87 | 67.06 | 65.73 |
Data Source: Bloomberg
With India likely to continue buying oil from Russia, there are no short term shocks expected, helping oil glide higher. Last week, Brent Crude touched a high of $68.00/bbl and a low of $65.30/bbl. The OPEC Plus supplies should only ease oil prices from here.
The table captures the international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).
| Date | Price ($/oz) | Open ($/oz) | High ($/oz) | Low ($/oz) |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 3,372.11 | 3,338.76 | 3,379.01 | 3,321.49 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 3,338.81 | 3,347.38 | 3,353.25 | 3,325.27 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 3,347.11 | 3,315.46 | 3,350.50 | 3,311.46 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 3,315.46 | 3,332.38 | 3,345.46 | 3,314.88 |
| Aug 18, 2025 | 3,330.55 | 3,338.00 | 3,358.50 | 3,323.52 |
| Aug 17, 2025 | 3,327.14 | 3,334.78 | 3,335.38 | 3,323.63 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 3,335.39 | 3,336.50 | 3,349.02 | 3,332.16 |
Data Source: Bloomberg
Spot gold prices closed higher at $3,372/oz ahead of Jackson Hole symposium. The gold/silver ratio is currently favouring silver, and that is keeping a cap on gold prices. During the week, gold touched a high of $3,379.01/oz and a low of $3,314.88/oz.
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