Story of 6 key macro signals for the week to October 04, 2025

6 Oct 2025 , 12:09 PM

INDO-US DEBATE SHIFTS FROM TRADE DEAL TO H1-B VISAS

The week was about the big US shutdown which is likely to put pressure on GDP growth, if it persists. Back home, the RBI policy made a bold statement of macros by raising GDP growth forecast for FY26 by 30 bps to 6.8% and cutting inflation forecast by 50 bps to 2.6%.

Next week, the big focus will continue to be on the US shutdown and its impact. However, there are also interesting data points coming up like the US unemployment data for September and the minutes of the Fed September policy.

• US BOND YIELDS TAPER DURING THE WEEK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
03-Oct-25	4.119	4.088	4.125	4.079
02-Oct-25	4.090	4.100	4.127	4.083
01-Oct-25	4.106	4.160	4.168	4.087
30-Sep-25	4.150	4.143	4.160	4.106
29-Sep-25	4.141	4.168	4.170	4.135
26-Sep-25	4.187	4.170	4.197	4.152

Data Source: Bloomberg

After 2 weeks of bond yields rallying, this week saw the bond yields tapering, albeit marginally, the overall sentiments were impacted by the US shutdown. The lower bond yields could also be reflective of more rate cut expectations. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.170% and a low of 4.079%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) STAYS UNDER PRESSURE

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
03-Oct-25	97.72	97.85	97.95	97.60
02-Oct-25	97.85	97.70	98.13	97.52
01-Oct-25	97.71	97.82	97.88	97.46
30-Sep-25	97.78	97.91	98.04	97.63
29-Sep-25	97.91	98.17	98.18	97.77
26-Sep-25	98.15	98.50	98.53	98.13

Data Source: Bloomberg

After falling bouncing in the previous week, the US dollar index tapered below 98; to close at 97.72 levels. The uncertainty caused by the US shutdown led to further weakening of the US dollar. The 100-level still remains a major resistance. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 98.18 and a low of 97.46 during the current week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS FLAT THIS WEEK

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
03-Oct-25	6.514	6.519	6.523	6.505
02-Oct-25	6.519	6.519	6.519	6.519
01-Oct-25	6.523	6.573	6.600	6.519
30-Sep-25	6.571	6.558	6.574	6.533
29-Sep-25	6.563	6.525	6.576	6.518
26-Sep-25	6.517	6.504	6.524	6.489

Data Source: RBI

After 2 weeks of rallying, India bond yields were flat at 6.514% levels. The RBI lived by the expectation that there would be no rate cut in the October MPC. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.600% and a low of 6.505%. For FY26, government borrowings are ₹10,000 Crore lower, which should keep yields soft.

• RUPEE REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE FOR NOW

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
03-Oct-25	88.735	88.749	88.816	88.664
02-Oct-25	88.720	88.669	88.883	88.585
01-Oct-25	88.683	88.786	88.856	88.612
30-Sep-25	88.841	88.738	88.877	88.673
29-Sep-25	88.704	88.661	88.802	88.624
26-Sep-25	88.677	88.774	88.792	88.638

Data Source: RBI

USDINR weakened further this week from ₹88.677/$ to ₹88.735/$ levels. RBI repeatedly intervened at ₹89/$, which stemmed the fall in rupee. RBI has avoided a rate cut in October, to prevent a further fall in the rupee. However, hedging pressures continue from banks. For the week, the USDINR touched a high of ₹88.585/$ and a low of ͅ₹88.883/$.

• BRENT CRUDE FALLS SHARPLY AHEAD OF OPEC MEET

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
03-Oct-25	64.53	64.38	65.02	64.20
02-Oct-25	64.11	65.45	66.15	64.00
01-Oct-25	65.35	66.18	66.57	65.05
30-Sep-25	67.02	67.50	67.71	66.84
29-Sep-25	67.97	69.50	69.91	67.52
26-Sep-25	70.13	69.54	70.76	69.11

Data Source: Bloomberg

Brent Crude fell sharply from $70.13/bbl to $64.53/bbl, as markets expected another sharp supply spike by the OPEC in its upcoming meeting. Russia may curb oil exports, but the impact was likely to be limited amidst oversupply. For now, OPEC additional supplies are driving prices. Brent Crude touched a high of $69.91/bbl and a low of $64.00/bbl.

• SPOT GOLD CONTINUES ITS GLITTERING RALLY

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
03-Oct-25	3,886.83	3,857.92	3,891.85	3,838.05
02-Oct-25	3,856.53	3,866.66	3,897.20	3,819.51
01-Oct-25	3,865.80	3,858.84	3,895.45	3,853.44
30-Sep-25	3,858.51	3,833.84	3,871.87	3,793.18
29-Sep-25	3,833.93	3,758.59	3,834.58	3,757.62
28-Sep-25	3,766.94	3,764.63	3,772.53	3,763.54
26-Sep-25	3,760.24	3,748.18	3,783.88	3,734.58

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold spiked from $3,760.24/oz to $3,886.83/oz this week, as the US shutdown gave another reason for safe-haven rush. In India, spot 24K gold crossed ₹1,20,000 per 10 grams. Gold touched a weekly high of $3,897.20/oz and low of $3,757.62/oz. Gold will get another big fillip if the Fed chooses to cut rates further in its late October FOMC meet!