Story of 6 key macro signals for the week to September 20, 2025

22 Sep 2025 , 02:48 PM

INDO-US TRADE DEAL WILL COME AT A STEEP COST

President Trump put tough conditions for H1-B visas for emigrants, underlining that the Indo-US trade deal (even if it happens) would come at a steep cost. India has a big stake in the US economy, and hence it has to tackle this challenge very sensitively.

Next week, the DIPP will publish the core sector growth for August 2025. At the same time, the US BEA will announce final estimate of Q2 GDP growth and the PCE inflation for August 2025. That will broadly set the agenda for Fed rate action in 2025.

• US BOND YIELDS INCH UP DURING THE WEEK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
19-Sep-25	4.139	4.110	4.145	4.106
18-Sep-25	4.104	4.081	4.137	4.043
17-Sep-25	4.076	4.032	4.091	3.990
16-Sep-25	4.026	4.037	4.064	4.022
15-Sep-25	4.034	4.080	4.089	4.030
12-Sep-25	4.060	4.030	4.083	4.026

Data Source: Bloomberg

After the US bond yields tapered sharply in previous week, the current week saw yields inching up. Bond yields had already factored 3 rate cuts in 2025, so the Fed statement was hardly a surprise. The rise in bond yields could be more due to pre-emptive selling in bonds. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.145% and a low of 3.990%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) STILL UNDER PRESSURE

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
19-Sep-25	97.64	97.34	97.81	97.27
18-Sep-25	97.35	96.93	97.60	96.84
17-Sep-25	96.87	96.62	97.07	96.22
16-Sep-25	96.63	97.34	97.39	96.56
15-Sep-25	97.30	97.63	97.70	97.27
12-Sep-25	97.55	97.52	97.86	97.49

Data Source: Bloomberg

Over the last couple of months, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has been persistently under 100. This week, the dollar index even briefly dipped below 97, before bouncing back. Markets expect the rate cuts and the tariff wars to weaken the dollar; as would de-dollarization. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 97.81 and a low of 96.56 during the current week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS UP MARGINALLY THIS WEEK

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
19-Sep-25	6.489	6.510	6.531	6.485
18-Sep-25	6.509	6.471	6.513	6.471
17-Sep-25	6.466	6.483	6.483	6.465
16-Sep-25	6.490	6.494	6.497	6.483
15-Sep-25	6.492	6.486	6.504	6.486
12-Sep-25	6.483	6.466	6.491	6.451

Data Source: RBI

India bond yields were up marginally from 6.483% to 6.489% levels this week. It is still not clear if the RBI will cut rates in October, although one or two cuts look likely by March 2026. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.531% and a low of 6.465%. The restrained government borrowing program is also keeping yields in check.

• RUPEE FINALLY SEES SOME STRENGTH THIS WEEK

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
19-Sep-25	88.100	88.207	88.343	88.052
18-Sep-25	88.206	87.891	88.291	87.834
17-Sep-25	87.745	87.879	87.910	87.662
16-Sep-25	87.883	88.069	88.160	87.878
15-Sep-25	88.122	88.279	88.302	88.115
12-Sep-25	88.277	88.298	88.431	88.232

Data Source: RBI

USDINR gained marginally this week from ₹88.277/$ to ₹88.100/$ levels. This is despite the fact that RBI did not intervene. However, rate cuts will have the impact of weakening the rupee. Hedging pressures have abated this week. For the week, the USDINR touched a high of ₹87.662/$ and a low of ͅ₹88.343/$.

• BRENT CRUDE CLOSES MARGINALLY LOWER THIS WEEK

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
19-Sep-25	66.68	67.46	67.57	66.44
18-Sep-25	67.44	68.00	68.42	67.19
17-Sep-25	67.95	68.53	68.59	67.62
16-Sep-25	68.47	67.47	68.69	67.01
15-Sep-25	67.44	67.33	67.85	66.78
12-Sep-25	66.99	66.24	68.17	65.71

Data Source: Bloomberg

Contrasting factors are playing on Brent prices. Higher OPEC supplies and weak global demand for oil are keeping a cap on oil prices. At the same time, possible Russian sanctions are offering support to oil prices. Brent was in a tight range this week. For the week, Brent Crude touched a high of $68.69/bbl and a low of $66.44/bbl.

• SPOT GOLD BREACHES $3,700/OZ DURING THE WEEK

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
19-Sep-25	3,684.98	3,645.04	3,686.33	3,632.28
18-Sep-25	3,644.36	3,659.40	3,673.18	3,627.89
17-Sep-25	3,660.04	3,691.80	3,707.70	3,645.44
16-Sep-25	3,689.80	3,678.84	3,703.23	3,674.66
15-Sep-25	3,679.13	3,644.40	3,685.65	3,626.60
14-Sep-25	3,638.26	3,644.79	3,646.19	3,636.92
12-Sep-25	3,643.13	3,635.01	3,656.86	3,630.48

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold spiked from $3,643/oz to $3,685/oz this week, as de-dollarization gave a boost to gold prices. In India, spot gold crossed ₹1,10,000 per 10 grams. Gold touched a weekly high of $3,707.70/oz and low of $3,626.60/oz. Two more Fed rate cuts will also reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold; making it more attractive.