Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to November 01, 2025

3 Nov 2025 , 03:59 PM

INDIA IIP FLAT; FED RATE CUTS DONE FOR 2025

The IIP growth for September 2025 came in above 4%, for the third month in succession on the back of robust manufacturing. The US Fed cut rates by 25 bps, but Jerome Powell made it amply clear that this could very well be the last rate cut for the year 2025.

For the coming week, US data flows are likely to be erratic due to the shutdown; so, the markets will largely rely on the speeches of FOMC members. In India, the focus next week will be on the IPO markets, with 3 mega IPOs to jointly mop up around ₹16,500 Crore.

• US BOND YIELDS CLOSE ABOVE THE 4% MARK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
31-Oct-25	4.101	4.099	4.116	4.076
30-Oct-25	4.093	4.074	4.116	4.058
29-Oct-25	4.058	3.981	4.082	3.974
28-Oct-25	3.983	3.985	4.004	3.970
27-Oct-25	3.997	4.024	4.043	3.981
24-Oct-25	3.997	4.007	4.020	3.964

Data Source: Bloomberg

After 4 weeks of US bond yields tapering, this week saw US bond yields rally to 4.101% from 3.997%. The post-policy statement by Jerome Powell almost ruled out more rate cuts in 2025, which led to a late spike in bond yields. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.116% and a low of 3.970%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) RALLIES DESPITE SHUTDOWN

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
31-Oct-25	99.80	99.49	99.84	99.42
30-Oct-25	99.53	99.14	99.72	98.92
29-Oct-25	99.22	98.74	99.36	98.62
28-Oct-25	98.67	98.75	98.95	98.57
27-Oct-25	98.78	98.84	99.00	98.73
24-Oct-25	98.95	98.94	99.10	98.73

Data Source: Bloomberg

This week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) got tantalizingly close to the 100 levels; closing at 99.80. The close was very near to the high point of the week. The shutdown uncertainty has only increased the preference for safe-haven dollar assets. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 99.84 and a low of 98.57 during the week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS STAY FLAT IN A RANGE

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
31-Oct-25	6.529	6.574	6.600	6.528
30-Oct-25	6.573	6.539	6.576	6.539
29-Oct-25	6.537	6.537	6.555	6.521
28-Oct-25	6.533	6.548	6.557	6.533
27-Oct-25	6.542	6.547	6.549	6.538
24-Oct-25	6.533	6.539	6.570	6.530

Data Source: RBI

For the week, the India bond yields were flat, mildly tapering from 6.533% to 6.529%. The fiscal surplus in September led to a sharp fall in bond yields on Friday. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.600% and a low of 6.521%. Markets are awaiting signals from the December RBI policy, although rate cuts look unlikely.

• RUPEE WEAKENS AMID STRONG DOLLAR INDEX

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
31-Oct-25	88.769	88.637	88.814	88.566
30-Oct-25	88.632	88.314	88.765	88.308
29-Oct-25	88.408	88.232	88.493	88.141
28-Oct-25	88.234	88.223	88.423	88.160
27-Oct-25	88.225	87.786	88.311	87.785
24-Oct-25	87.836	87.777	87.889	87.630

Data Source: RBI

After a sharp rally in the rupee in the last 2 weeks, the USDINR weakened sharply from ₹87.836/$ to ₹88.769/$. RBI intervention slowed this week, and the rupee weakened due to a combination of a strong dollar index (DXY) and domestic hedging pressures from banks. For the week, USDINR touched a high of ₹87.785/$ and a low of ͅ₹88.814/$.

• BRENT CRUDE STUCK IN A NARROW RANGE

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
31-Oct-25	64.77	64.05	65.15	63.81
30-Oct-25	64.37	64.07	64.54	63.47
29-Oct-25	64.32	63.90	64.70	63.38
28-Oct-25	63.83	64.88	65.01	63.43
27-Oct-25	64.90	65.35	65.89	64.32
24-Oct-25	65.20	65.12	65.95	64.73

Data Source: Bloomberg

After falling to nearly $60/bbl for Brent Crude saw a recovery. For the week, Brent tapered from $65.20/bbl to $64.77/bbl. OPEC supplies are still an overhang, but markets are betting that the US-China trade deal will boost growth. Global oil markets remain very heavily oversupplied. Brent touched a high of $65.89/bbl and a low of $63.38/bbl this week.

• SPOT GOLD CLOSES JUST ABOVE $4,000/OZ MARK

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
31-Oct-25	4,002.28	4,024.37	4,046.00	3,972.45
30-Oct-25	4,024.47	3,931.15	4,027.44	3,915.17
29-Oct-25	3,930.38	3,952.52	4,030.40	3,917.12
28-Oct-25	3,952.58	3,983.41	4,020.11	3,886.49
27-Oct-25	3,981.59	4,065.35	4,109.33	3,971.34
26-Oct-25	4,064.63	4,083.18	4,109.04	4,062.12
24-Oct-25	4,112.10	4,127.13	4,144.70	4,044.70

Data Source: Bloomberg

In the last 2 weeks, Spot gold has peaked at $4,382/oz and then corrected -10.7% to $3,915/oz levels. While the correction was much-needed, the strong buying support indicates that the rally is far from over. In India, spot 24K gold corrected to ₹1,24,038 per 10 grams. Gold touched a high of $4,109.33/oz and low of $3,915.17/oz during the week.

• SPOT SILVER SHOWS LATE RECOVERY IN THE WEEK

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
31-Oct-25	48.6750	48.9290	49.4100	48.3646
30-Oct-25	48.9300	47.5430	49.0050	47.2580
29-Oct-25	47.5750	47.0500	48.4745	46.8460
28-Oct-25	47.0650	47.0139	47.2770	45.5431
27-Oct-25	46.9150	48.5250	48.7003	46.0769
26-Oct-25	48.1535	48.4050	48.6925	48.0805
24-Oct-25	48.6125	48.9085	49.0370	47.8143

Data Source: Bloomberg

During the week, Spot Silver bounced nearly 6.9% to close flat for the week at $48.6750/oz. However, spot silver is well below its recent peak of $54.40/oz. In India, silver traded at ₹1,52,000 per KG. Globally, silver supplies are facing a huge shortfall amid the rising demands of sectors like electronics, alternate energy, aerospace, and defence!