Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to November 22, 2025

24 Nov 2025 , 04:25 PM

GROWTH CONCERNS START TO MANIFEST

As India awaits its GDP data for Q2FY26 this week, there are some early concerns on the growth front. We had mentioned last week that 0.25% inflation is not exactly a cause for celebration. Oct-25 core sector came in flat at 0.0%, down from 6.5% in Aug-25.

Also, the PMI Manufacturing came in at a 9-month low, even as net direct and indirect taxes are showing signs of tapering. The GDP data for Q2 and Q3 will be critical, but the first growth momentum signal will come from IIP. Low inflation may be a silent problem.

• US BOND YIELDS FALL SHARPLY ON FRIDAY

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
21-Nov-25	4.063	4.092	4.102	4.036
20-Nov-25	4.104	4.146	4.168	4.084
19-Nov-25	4.131	4.117	4.141	4.098
18-Nov-25	4.121	4.146	4.148	4.084
17-Nov-25	4.133	4.154	4.158	4.115
14-Nov-25	4.148	4.123	4.152	4.065

Data Source: Bloomberg

The US bond yields were stable through last week, but fell on Friday from 4.104% to 4.063%. This was after the US unemployment came in at 4.4%, raising the chances of a rate cut in December once again. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.168% and a low of 4.036%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) FINALLY BREACHES ABOVE 100

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
21-Nov-25	100.18	100.16	100.39	99.99
20-Nov-25	100.16	100.17	100.36	100.03
19-Nov-25	100.23	99.58	100.24	99.49
18-Nov-25	99.55	99.56	99.66	99.40
17-Nov-25	99.59	99.27	99.60	99.25
14-Nov-25	99.30	99.25	99.40	98.99

Data Source: Bloomberg

After staying under the 100 levels since May this year, the Dollar Index finally breached above the 100 mark this week. The end of the US shutdown was the trigger for the dollar index to rebound. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 100.39 and a low of 99.25 this week. The DXY has given a close above 100, for the first time in 6 months.

• INDIA BENCHMARK YIELDS INCH UP FURTHER

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
21-Nov-25	6.560	6.536	6.575	6.527
20-Nov-25	6.536	6.535	6.550	6.535
19-Nov-25	6.532	6.522	6.537	6.511
18-Nov-25	6.523	6.542	6.549	6.508
17-Nov-25	6.536	6.527	6.549	6.527
14-Nov-25	6.527	6.513	6.540	6.513

Data Source: RBI

For the week, the India bond yields edged up from 6.527% to 6.560%. With the December rate cut almost ruled out and a greater fiscal thrust likely from the government, bond yields have spiked in response. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.575% and a low of 6.508%. A widening of fiscal deficit is also expected.

• RUPEE UNDER PRESSURE AS TRADE DEFICIT WIDENS SHARPLY

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
21-Nov-25	89.641	88.692	89.734	88.602
20-Nov-25	88.715	88.487	88.763	88.483
19-Nov-25	88.492	88.557	88.623	88.416
18-Nov-25	88.552	88.610	88.697	88.495
17-Nov-25	88.636	88.705	88.748	88.559
14-Nov-25	88.689	88.777	88.808	88.636

Data Source: RBI

The USDINR weakened sharply from ₹88.689/$ to ₹89.641/$, with bulk of the pressure coming on last two days of the week. RBI may shift its defence to ₹90/$, even as NDF selling and bank hedging demand is putting pressure on the rupee. For the week, USDINR touched a high of ₹88.416/$ and a low of ₹89.734/$.

• BRENT CRUDE EASES ON UKRAINE PEACE TALKS

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
21-Nov-25	62.56	62.99	63.10	61.87
20-Nov-25	63.38	63.74	64.40	62.94
19-Nov-25	63.51	64.73	64.85	62.86
18-Nov-25	64.89	64.01	65.10	63.62
17-Nov-25	64.20	64.03	64.72	63.67
14-Nov-25	64.39	63.36	64.87	63.36

Data Source: Bloomberg

Brent prices closed lower at $62.56/bbl, after strong indications from the US that Ukraine may be open to a peace plan. OPEC supplies are still an overhang, and global oil demand is tepid; which means that oil will remain oversupplied for now. Brent touched a high of $65.10/bbl and a low of $61.87/bbl this week.

• SPOT GOLD HOLDS ABOVE $4,000/OZ; SECOND WEEK IN A ROW

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
21-Nov-25	4,065.90	4,077.54	4,101.37	4,022.70
20-Nov-25	4,077.50	4,081.66	4,110.17	4,038.73
19-Nov-25	4,081.66	4,067.86	4,133.04	4,055.23
18-Nov-25	4,067.88	4,044.61	4,082.69	3,997.99
17-Nov-25	4,044.61	4,082.02	4,106.85	4,006.83
14-Nov-25	4,079.58	4,171.47	4,211.68	4,032.32

Data Source: Bloomberg

For second week in a row, spot gold closed above $4,000/oz on all trading days. It appears; $4,000/oz level is turning into a support. In India, spot 24K gold was flat at to ₹1,26,300 per 10 grams. As market volatility and uncertainty return, gold is again in demand. Gold touched a high of $4,133.04/oz and low of $3,997.99/oz this week.

• SPOT SILVER HOLDS ABOVE $50/OZ LEVELS

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
21-Nov-25	50.0365	50.6058	50.8684	48.6281
20-Nov-25	50.6059	51.3960	51.8777	50.2162
19-Nov-25	51.3900	50.7091	52.5050	50.3625
18-Nov-25	50.7113	50.2145	51.2050	49.3485
17-Nov-25	50.2143	50.5650	51.3250	49.5701
14-Nov-25	50.5600	52.3450	53.5750	50.0634

Data Source: Bloomberg

For the second week in a row, spot silver closed above $50/oz on all days of the week. Spot silver is still below its recent peak of $54.40/oz, but that may be just a matter of time. In India, silver traded at ₹1,64,000 per KG. Silver also has industrial demand from electronics, alternate energy, aerospace, and defence. The week did see a shift to safe-haven assets.