Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to October 25, 2025

27 Oct 2025 , 01:25 PM

US FINALLY PUBLISHES SEPTEMBER INFLATION DATA

The US BLS finally published the consumer inflation data, delayed by a full 14 days. Even that was based on incomplete data due to the shutdown. In India, the core sector growth halved in September due to base effect and a sharp fall in output of refinery products.

For the coming week, the big global data points will be the US Fed Statement and the US data on Q3-GDP and PCE inflation. Back home, India will see the September IIP data and the September update for fiscal deficit published during the coming week.

• US BOND YIELDS NOW FIRMLY UNDER 4% LEVEL

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
24-Oct-25	3.997	4.007	4.020	3.964
23-Oct-25	3.989	3.949	4.007	3.945
22-Oct-25	3.953	3.963	3.978	3.936
21-Oct-25	3.963	3.982	3.991	3.947
20-Oct-25	3.988	4.013	4.026	3.982
17-Oct-25	4.009	3.957	4.018	3.936

Data Source: Bloomberg

For the fourth week in a row, the US bond yields tapered. This week it edged lower from 4.009% to 3.997%; closing on all days under 4%. After Powell and Kashkari gave a dovish view, the CME Fedwatch is getting a lot more aggressive on rate cut assumptions. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.026% and a low of 3.936%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) HOLDS UP DESPITE US SHUTDOWN

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
24-Oct-25	98.95	98.94	99.10	98.73
23-Oct-25	98.94	98.92	99.14	98.91
22-Oct-25	98.90	98.97	99.14	98.79
21-Oct-25	98.93	98.61	98.98	98.51
20-Oct-25	98.59	98.67	98.67	98.39
17-Oct-25	98.43	98.26	98.55	98.03

Data Source: Bloomberg

After hovering near the 99 levels through the week, the Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 98.95. The current uncertainty is driving portfolio flows towards dollar assets. The 100-level seems to be getting closer. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 99.14 and a low of 98.39 during the week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS HARDEN

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
24-Oct-25	6.533	6.539	6.570	6.530
23-Oct-25	6.539	6.507	6.540	6.507
22-Oct-25	6.508	6.507	6.508	6.507
21-Oct-25	6.507	6.507	6.507	6.507
20-Oct-25	6.508	6.510	6.519	6.507
17-Oct-25	6.506	6.504	6.520	6.477

Data Source: RBI

Last week was a brief interruption of yields softening. This week, again, yields went up from 6.506% to 6.533%. RBI minutes is very sceptical about more rate cuts for now. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.570% and a low of 6.507%. A lot will depend on the fiscal deficit number next week, which will decide the course of borrowings.

• RUPEE HARDENS FURTHER ON RBI SUPPORT

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
24-Oct-25	87.836	87.777	87.889	87.630
23-Oct-25	87.779	87.716	87.964	87.716
22-Oct-25	87.740	88.003	88.003	87.612
21-Oct-25	88.021	87.880	88.092	87.880
20-Oct-25	87.875	87.956	88.012	87.738
17-Oct-25	88.003	87.939	88.119	87.716

Data Source: RBI

After a sharp rally in the rupee last week, this week saw the rupee harden further from ₹88.003/$ to ₹87.836/$. RBI sold over $7 Billion dollars to defend the rupee at ₹89/$. With rate cuts ruled out for now, rupee will get further support. Hedging pressures continue from banks. For the week, USDINR touched a high of ₹87.612/$ and a low of ͅ₹88.092/$.

• BRENT CRUDE RALLIES ON US-CHINA TRADE DEAL HOPES

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
24-Oct-25	65.94	65.83	66.78	65.41
23-Oct-25	65.99	64.35	66.36	63.86
22-Oct-25	62.59	61.61	64.50	61.38
21-Oct-25	61.32	60.90	62.10	60.35
20-Oct-25	61.01	61.25	61.55	60.07
17-Oct-25	61.29	61.00	61.47	60.14

Data Source: Bloomberg

After falling to nearly $60/bbl for 3 weeks in a row, this week saw Brent crude rallying to close at $65.94/$. While OPEC supplies are still an overhang, markets are betting on a possible US-China trade deal. However, oil markets are still heavily oversupplied. Brent touched a high of $66.78/bbl and a low of $60.07/bbl this week.

• SPOT GOLD FINALLY STOPS DEFYING GRAVITY

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
24-Oct-25	4,112.10	4,127.13	4,144.70	4,044.70
23-Oct-25	4,126.17	4,095.57	4,154.96	4,065.49
22-Oct-25	4,094.07	4,123.10	4,161.65	4,004.69
21-Oct-25	4,125.10	4,355.55	4,375.59	4,086.47
20-Oct-25	4,356.50	4,251.82	4,381.60	4,218.81
19-Oct-25	4,237.88	4,264.41	4,268.18	4,234.40
17-Oct-25	4,249.98	4,328.75	4,379.44	4,186.91

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold peaked at $4,382/oz earlier this week and then corrected sharply to $4,005/oz levels. It was the much-needed correction in an overheated market. In India, spot 24K gold corrected to ₹1,25,620 per 10 grams. Gold touched a weekly high of $4,381.60/oz and low of $4,004.69/oz. However, the fundamental triggers for the Gold Rally are still intact.

• SPOT SILVER CORRECTS 12.8% THIS WEEK FROM PEAK LEVELS

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
24-Oct-25	48.6125	48.9085	49.0370	47.8143
23-Oct-25	48.9450	48.4616	49.4700	47.9137
22-Oct-25	48.5450	48.7553	49.3428	47.5231
21-Oct-25	48.7650	52.4917	52.6176	47.8793
20-Oct-25	52.4950	51.8854	52.8000	51.2808
19-Oct-25	51.8270	51.8000	52.1100	51.5995
17-Oct-25	51.9087	54.1800	54.4962	50.6200

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot Silver had spiked faster than gold in the last 7 months. While gold is just a safe haven, silver is a safe haven, and also has industrial applications. Last week, Silver peaked at $54.50/oz and fell to as low as $47.52/oz this week; a fall of -12.8%. In India, silver traded at ₹1,55,000 per KG. The bigger story is that supply of silver is awfully short of the rising demands of electronics, alternate energy, aerospace, and defence!