Weekly Market Wrap - Macro turns positive

19 May 2025 , 02:01 PM

A significant easing of geopolitical and military tensions led to a strong rally in Indian markets. The rally was extremely broadbased as very few stocks declined. Also, Midcaps outperformed Largecaps. Sectorally, Defence and Realty stocks notched the strongest gains. Meanwhile Pharma stocks underperformed as fresh worries over price caps in US caused headwinds for exporters . FMCG, too, underperformed as expensive valuations and worry over cheaper imports from ongoing trade deals kept them in check.

 

NIFTY 50

＄NIFTY 50 – A strong bounceback as macro stabilises

date	open	high	low	close
2025-05-09	23935.8	24164.2	23935.8	24008.0
2025-05-12	24420.1	24944.8	24378.8	24924.7
2025-05-13	24864.1	24973.8	24547.5	24578.3
2025-05-14	24613.8	24767.6	24535.6	24666.9
2025-05-15	24694.4	25116.2	24494.4	25062.1
2025-05-16	25064.7	25070.0	24953.1	25019.8

Weekly Performance: 4.2%

The NIFTY 50 index saw a price change of 4.21%. This was amongst the best weeks in the past three years as the sentiment turned positive with easing of border and tradewar tensions. Defence stocks had significant rallies. BEL was the top performer (+15%). There were many stocks that were up more than 10%. Adani, Hero Motors, Jio Fin and Shriram Finance are some of them. On the other hand, 3 of the index stocks fell. Indusind Bank was the worst performer (-4.6%). Bharti and Sun Pharma were also down.

 

NIFTY MIDCAP SELECT

＄NIFTY MIDCAP SELECT – Midcaps outperform largecaps

date	open	high	low	close
2025-05-09	11744.1	12048.3	11743.4	12021.9
2025-05-12	12357.5	12548.5	12322.2	12537.9
2025-05-13	12571.5	12662.3	12513.7	12577.4
2025-05-14	12597.7	12677.5	12554.0	12656.4
2025-05-15	12700.2	12761.2	12639.0	12741.3
2025-05-16	12795.8	12861.3	12754.2	12811.4

Weekly Performance: 6.6%

Midcaps outperformed the large caps as they witnessed one of the strongest weeks in recent history. The NIFTY MIDCAP SELECT index saw a significant price change of 6.57%. Performances were spread out across sectors. BHEL was the top performer and was up 15%. Many stocks were up 10%+. Some of them include Cummins, HDFC AMC, BSE and Idea. Only one of the 25 stocks was down. SRF was the worst performer (-2.98%).

 

NIFTY IT

＄NIFTY IT – Rallies more than 10% in 2 weeks

date	open	high	low	close
2025-05-09	35490.9	35929.3	35488.4	35880.1
2025-05-12	36656.6	38356.1	36600.8	38282.6
2025-05-13	38326.4	38326.4	37304.9	37354.6
2025-05-14	37480.6	37913.8	37379.1	37853.6
2025-05-15	37929.1	38377.4	37456.8	38293.8
2025-05-16	38351.9	38351.9	37814.9	37972.4

Weekly Performance: 5.8%

It was another strong week for NIFTY IT as it surged 5.8% and outperformed the NIFTY. In 2 weeks, the index has made a significant recovery from its lows. Midcap IT stocks outperformed the large caps. Coforge, LTI, Mphasis, OFSS and Tech Mahindra were the top performers. Each of them was up ~8.5% to ~10%. None of the stocks declined as the strong rally in the index was also broadbased. Trade war headwinds were a key issue for IT stocks during the year. With the rapprochement of tensions between US and China, trade war headwinds seem to be fading. IT stocks are a key beneficiary of improving outlook for US and European companies.

 

NIFTY AUTO

＄NIFTY AUTO – Two Wheelers lead the rally

date	open	high	low	close
2025-05-09	22241.4	22804.8	22220.7	22627.8
2025-05-12	23135.9	23427.3	23066.4	23400.4
2025-05-13	23293.1	23500.2	23046.9	23167.2
2025-05-14	23088.6	23390.8	22947.7	23356.8
2025-05-15	23356.7	23880.5	23261.8	23804.8
2025-05-16	23833.8	24009.8	23777.6	23953.2

Weekly Performance: 5.9%

NIFTY AUTO Index performed better than the NIFTY 50 Index with a change 5.86% as compared to 4.21%. 2 wheeler stocks led the gains on multiple broker upgrades. Hero MotoCorp was up 12.75% change and Bajaj Auto was up 10.4%. On the other hand, Balkrishna Industries fell out of favor as it declined by 1.17%. YTD, the auto index has recovered all of its losses and is up ~5%.

 

NIFTY BANK

＄NIFTY BANK – Strong performance but underperforms broader markets

date	open	high	low	close
2025-05-09	53595.9	54054.8	53483.1	53595.2
2025-05-12	54658.8	55466.3	54558.1	55382.9
2025-05-13	55233.5	55499.6	54888.5	54940.9
2025-05-14	55008.6	55208.6	54491.0	54801.3
2025-05-15	54853.7	55490.6	54442.3	55355.6
2025-05-16	55276.0	55418.9	55170.2	55354.9

Weekly Performance: 3.3%

NIFTY BANK rallied 3.28% but underperformed the broader NIFTY. After being impacted by profit booking and sector rotation, BANK NIFTY witnessed strong but increasingly selective buying. Many PSU banks witnessed stronger rallies. Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda & Punjab National Bank were the top performers. Each of them were up 7.5% to 10.5%. On the other hand, Indusind Bank was the top loser as it lost 4.6%. Its accounting issues continue to be a concern for investors.

 

NIFTY ENERGY

＄NIFTY ENERGY – Renewables lead a significant rally.

date	open	high	low	close
2025-05-09	32800.5	33413.1	32791.9	33337.6
2025-05-12	34260.1	34758.4	34196.1	34734.3
2025-05-13	34750.9	34894.6	34501.9	34549.2
2025-05-14	34679.0	35091.4	34604.4	35040.8
2025-05-15	35130.8	35394.9	34800.5	35362.6
2025-05-16	35458.6	35748.4	35332.1	35664.8

Weekly Performance: 7.0%

NIFTY ENERGY witnessed a significant rally as it was up 6.98%. Renewable energy players notched material gains and were top performers. Triveni Turbines, Suzlon, SJVN, RPower, and Adani Green were each up more than 15%. Strong earnings and multiple broker upgrades were key reasons behind the rally. There were no stocks that declined in the 40 stock index highlighting the extremely positive market breadth.

 

NIFTY FMCG

＄NIFTY FMCG – India UK FTA was a key drag on UBL

date	open	high	low	close
2025-05-09	55203.2	55703.7	55038.5	55633.0
2025-05-12	56498.1	57160.7	56354.8	57101.4
2025-05-13	57061.3	57363.6	56208.8	56334.1
2025-05-14	56340.4	56596.9	56040.7	56351.7
2025-05-15	56410.1	56939.6	56063.3	56685.9
2025-05-16	56909.8	57090.4	56590.9	57061.8

Weekly Performance: 2.6%

The NIFTY FMCG was up 2.57% during a week when the markets rallied strongly. Market breadth was positive as 14 out of 15 index stocks were up. United Breweries was the only stock that was down. As India considers trade deals and lowers tariffs on imported alcohol products, there were worries over Indian premium alcohol manufacturers losing market share. As such, India-UK FTA was the key headwind for UBL. On the other hand, top gainers were Colgate with a 5.46% rise, Godrej Consumer Products at 4.62%, Tata Consumer Products with 4.88% and  Radico Khaitan.

 

NIFTY PHARMA

＄NIFTY PHARMA – Fresh worries over US prescription drug price caps

date	open	high	low	close
2025-05-09	20855.1	21107.3	20825.2	21071.8
2025-05-12	20949.7	21156.8	20576.1	21102.7
2025-05-13	21226.3	21589.1	21225.8	21359.8
2025-05-14	21362.2	21508.4	21176.8	21480.5
2025-05-15	21489.2	21671.3	21327.9	21650.7
2025-05-16	21717.0	21717.0	21504.5	21633.2

Weekly Performance: 2.7%

NIFTY PHARMA inched up 2.7% and underperformed NIFTY for the week ended 17 May 2025. A key headwind was US considering price caps on prescription drugs. This increased uncertainty over profitability for many of India’s pharma export majors. Notably, Sun Pharma was the worst performer in the index as it was marginally down for the week. Granules, JB Chemicals & Mankind were the top performers. Each of them were up 6% to 14%.

 

NIFTY REALTY

＄NIFTY REALTY – Metro developers rally strongly

date	open	high	low	close
2025-05-09	824.5	835.2	808.4	823.8
2025-05-12	857.5	874.3	852.7	872.6
2025-05-13	872.6	877.4	860.7	866.3
2025-05-14	866.1	885.3	865.7	881.0
2025-05-15	883.2	901.3	873.5	898.0
2025-05-16	901.6	917.3	892.2	912.5

Weekly Performance: 10.8%

NIFTY REALTY was among the best performing indices as it rallied 10.8% and significantly outperformed NIFTY 50. Metro based realty players notched significant gains as military tensions eased. Among top gainers, ANANTRAJ saw a significant 19.91% increase, followed by DLF, LODHA, SOBHA, and PRESTIGE, with gains ranging from 11.83% to 13.33%. There were no stocks that declined.