Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended April 18, 2025

21 Apr 2025 , 10:40 AM

FPIS TURN NET BUYERS; BUT OUTLOOK STILL CLOUDED

Just when the markets thought that FPI selling was back in the previous two weeks, they surprised with a net buy figure of $990 Million in the latest week. This was a truncated week with just 3 trading days, amidst a slew of trading holidays. However, banks and financials led the rally in the week and FPIs also chipped in as net buyers on two out of three days. For the week, the macros were mixed. The Indian rupee strengthened sharply to ₹85.41/$, as the dollar index (DXY) fell further below 100. However, price of Brent Crude rallied more than 5% during the week to $67.85/bbl, as hopes of a trade deal between the US and EU built up. Overall, the FPI outlook continues to be extremely clouded with tariffs still the overhang!

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO APRIL 18, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(23,999.62)	896.80	(23,102.82)	(15,101.03)	(38,203.85)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,53,680.08)	14,003.36	(1,39,676.72)	32,942.57	(1,06,734.15)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(17,725.62)	1,615.00	(16,110.62)	3,753.94	(12,356.68)
# – Recent Data is up to April 18, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Negative figures in brackets)

Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(12,357) Million of net selling overall by FPIs; although there was some improvement this week. This comprised of $(16,111) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $3,754 Million of net buying in debt. IPOs have dried up since mid-February. However, secondary market FPI flows continue to be quite tentative.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to April 18, 2025, FPIs turned net buyers to the tune  of $990 Million. Here is the week that was.

• The India CPI inflation fell sharply to 3.34%, against the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.60% for March 2025. The fall in inflation was triggered by food inflation falling further to 2.69%; having fallen a full 818 basis points from the October 2024 peak.
• WPI inflation tapered in March 2025 to 2.05% as food and minerals basket saw a sharp fall. While oil inflation did harden, the pressure point continues to be manufacturing WPI, which accelerated further, hardening input costs for Indian corporates.
• IMD has predicted an 89% probability of monsoons being above 104% of long period average (LPA) this year, a good portent for Kharif cropping. Earlier, SKYMET had also predicted Normal Monsoons. It will also depend on timely arrival and even spread.
• India merchandise trade deficit widened to $21.54 Billion for March 2025. For FY25, the services surplus offset nearly 67% of the merchandise trade deficit. This resulted in the overall deficit at $94.3 Billion for FY25; higher than FY24, but still well in control.
• Bellwether IT results of TCS, Infosys, and Wipro have all shown pressure on profits due to rising costs and pressure on operating margins. Meanwhile, the weight of IT sector in the Nifty has fallen to a 17-year low of just 10.2%, against peak levels of 17.7%.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
24-Mar-25	5,263.22	5,263.22	610.46	610.46
25-Mar-25	6,205.50	11,468.72	722.98	1,333.44
26-Mar-25	5,698.74	17,167.46	664.73	1,998.17
27-Mar-25	2,457.91	19,625.37	286.24	2,284.41
28-Mar-25	8,120.96	27,746.33	946.93	3,231.34
31-Mar-25	0.00	27,746.33	0.00	3,231.34
01-Apr-25	0.00	27,746.33	0.00	3,231.34
02-Apr-25	-6,335.66	21,410.67	-740.31	2,491.03
03-Apr-25	-1,060.32	20,350.35	-123.86	2,367.17
04-Apr-25	-2,958.56	17,391.79	-345.44	2,021.73
07-Apr-25	-3,128.15	14,263.64	-367.03	1,654.70
08-Apr-25	-8,931.15	5,332.49	-1,040.82	613.88
09-Apr-25	-4,673.87	658.62	-544.05	69.83
10-Apr-25	0.00	658.62	0.00	69.83
11-Apr-25	-4,487.41	-3,828.79	-518.07	-448.24
14-Apr-25	0.00	-3,828.79	0.00	-448.24
15-Apr-25	-2,351.99	-6,180.78	-273.03	-721.27
16-Apr-25	6,798.27	617.49	793.36	72.09
17-Apr-25	4,026.02	4,643.51	470.07	542.16
18-Apr-25	0.00	4,643.51	0.00	542.16

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(2,470) Million, $(1,210) Million; net inflows of $3,231 Million; net outflows of $(194) Million, $(604) Million, $(2,835) Million, and $(1,253) Million. The week to April 18, 2025, saw FPIs net buying in equities to the tune of $990 Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI inflows into equities were to the tune ₹4,644 Crore or $542 Million; largely due to persistent buying, despite being a truncated week.

CPI inflation and trade data were favourable, but FPI flows may be concerned about the rise in crude prices. Also, they may await PCE inflation and GDP signals from the US markets.