Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended February 07, 2025

10 Feb 2025 , 09:20 AM

FPI NET SELLERS FOR NINTH WEEK IN A ROW

There was no relenting on FPI outflows in the week to February 07, 2025; although the numbers were relatively subdued. After FPI selling of $1.60 Billion, $2.28 Billion, $2.09 Billion, and $2.57 Billion in last 4 weeks, the current week saw FPI selling of $841 Million. That is nearly $9 Billion of equity selling by FPIs in last 5 weeks. For a change, FPIs were neutral in one session and buyers in another session. However, despite the reformist promise of Union Budget 2025-26, the markets were not too impressed.

In terms of macros, it was a steady week for India. The rupee was steady at ₹86.53/$ with the rate cut keeping the pressure on the rupee. Brent Crude hovered around $75/bbl in the week, so it was not too newsy. However, the real risks perceived by the FPIs pertained to Trump’s sanctions on Mexico, Canada, and China; and his increasingly inward-looking and aggressive stance on most economic issues. FPIs fear that such moves could backfire.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO FEBRUARY 07, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(9,090.25)	1,748.47	(7,341.78)	17,688.43	(10,346.65)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(90,993.97)	5,625.25	(85,368.72)	18,504.34	(66,864.38)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(10,533.10)	649.72	(9,883.38)	2,115.28	(7,768.10)
# – Recent Data is up to February 07, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Negative figures in brackets)

Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(7,768) Million of net selling overall by FPIs. This includes $(9,883) Million of net selling in equities, substantially offset by $2,115 Million of net buying in debt. Secondary market selling in equities has been rampant, while FPI flows into IPOs are more work-in-progress.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to February 07, 2025, FPIs remained net sellers to the tune  of $(841) Million, sharply lower than previous week. Here is the week that was.

• The budget impact was expected to be much greater in the week, but markets showed a sense of trepidation as FPIs continued to be net sellers. Clearly, the Trump tariffs are spooking global investors as they evaluate the impact of a full-fledged trade war.
• In the monetary policy statement on February 07, 2025; the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut repo rates by 25 bps to 6.25%. The RBI has pegged FY26 GDP growth at 6.7% and the FY25 consumer inflation at 4.2%.
• India continued to procure close to 30% of its oil needs in January 2025 from Russia. However, the elaborate sanctions on vessels transporting Russian oil, will kick in from early March 2025. It remain to be seen how India manages its oil economics after that.
• US released jobs data for January 2025, wherein the unemployment figure came down further to 4.0%. It is now a full 30 bps lower from its August peak of 4.3%. Non-farm payroll additions at 143,000 was healthy, and hint at hard landing risks off for now.
• During the week, SBI and Bharti Airtel beat street estimates in Q3FY25 numbers, while ITC numbers fell below expectations. However, in the case of SBI and Bharti Airtel, the profit boost came largely from extraordinary one-off items in the quarter.
• Amidst the ongoing tariff war triggered by the US, Donald Trump has announced that the US would soon have its own sovereign wealth fund (SWF). Normally, SWFs are common among countries with large export surpluses and huge forex reserves.

Let us finally turn to the granular FPI flow story for January 2025.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
13-Jan-25	-1,421.40	-1,421.40	-165.48	-165.48
14-Jan-25	-4,276.46	-5,697.86	-494.75	-660.23
15-Jan-25	-7,766.43	-13,464.29	-897.34	-1,557.57
16-Jan-25	-4,396.93	-17,861.22	-508.31	-2,065.88
17-Jan-25	-4,341.24	-22,202.46	-501.96	-2,567.84
20-Jan-25	-3,627.11	-25,829.57	-418.91	-2,986.75
21-Jan-25	-3,724.79	-29,554.36	-430.38	-3,417.13
22-Jan-25	-6,327.90	-35,882.26	-731.43	-4,148.56
23-Jan-25	-3,018.05	-38,900.31	-348.64	-4,497.20
24-Jan-25	-3,061.48	-41,961.79	-354.09	-4,851.29
27-Jan-25	-2,866.30	-44,828.09	-332.17	-5,183.46
28-Jan-25	-4,514.16	-49,342.25	-522.36	-5,705.82
29-Jan-25	-2,940.87	-52,283.12	-339.84	-6,045.66
30-Jan-25	-1,796.22	-54,079.34	-207.47	-6,253.13
31-Jan-25	-1,753.84	-55,833.18	-202.56	-6,455.69
03-Feb-25	-1.32	-55,834.50	-0.15	-6,455.84
04-Feb-25	-3,628.00	-59,462.50	-416.46	-6,872.30
05-Feb-25	1,029.43	-58,433.07	118.16	-6,754.14
06-Feb-25	-1,147.53	-59,580.60	-131.56	-6,885.70
07-Feb-25	-3,594.36	-63,174.96	-410.50	-7,296.20

Data Source: NSDL

• In last 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(1,604) Million, $(2,283) Million, $(2,568) Million, $(2086) Million, $(645) Million, $(600) Million, and $(114) Million. In the week to February 07, 2025 net FPI equity outflows stood at $(841) Million.
• If you look at the last 4 rolling weeks on a cumulative basis, total net FPI outflows from equities were to the tune ₹(63,175) Crore or $(7,296) Million; with the broad trend still veering towards FPI sell-off.

With the Union Budget and the RBI policy out of the way, the action shifts back to the Trump tariff story; even as the Q3 GDP data and the second estimate of FY25 GDP is awaited on February 28, 2025.