Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended June 13, 2025

16 Jun 2025 , 09:58 AM

FPIS NET BUYERS IN THE WEEK, BUT FRIDAY SPOILS THE PARTY

The previous week saw FPIs net selling $(1,205) Million in equities. However, this week,  FPIs were net buyers to the tune of $391 Million. It could have been much better, had it not been for the FPI sell-off on Friday after Israel launched concerted attacks on Iran, and price of crude oil shot up by 8% in a single day. FPIs continue to remain sellers in debt. However, the immediate concern for the FPIs would be the trajectory of the Israel-Iran conflict.

The dollar index (DXY) cracked sharply to 98.14 levels, but the rupee still weakened to ₹86.25/$ due to risk-off sentiments across emerging markets. Brent Crude spiked to close the week at $75.18/bbl. Crude has now gained over 30% since the start of May 2025. The good news was on the India inflation front, which dipped to 2.82%, although the focus was more on the Israel-Iran conflict. The Nifty VIX also spiked by 7.6% on Friday to 15.08 levels.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO JUNE 13, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(9,467.60)	4,065.99	(5,401,61)	(26,616.35)	(32,017.96)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,17,822.21)	19,930.24	(97,891.97)	8,073.49	(89,818.48)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(13,511.61)	2,310.14	(11,201.47)	839.29	(10,362.18)
# – Recent Data is up to June 13, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(10,362) Million of overall net selling by FPIs; in equity and debt during the week. This comprised $(11,201) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $839 Million of net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of $(13,512) Million; offset by IPO buying of $2,310 Million.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to June 13, 2025, FPIs were net buyers in equities to the tune  of $391 Million. Here is the week that was.

• In the wee hours of Friday, Israel launched a massive attack on key Iranian nuclear installations and enrichment facilities. Israel also targeted key scientists and chiefs of armed forces, to push back the process. The pressure on markets could worsen.
• It was a tale of two inflations during the week. India inflation tapered to 2.82% on the back of lower food prices. At the same time, the US experienced a spike in food prices, with headline inflation up to 2.4%. RBI may, however, be cautious on further rate cuts.
• SIP stoppage ration of mutual funds tempered in May 2025 from a high of 353% to 72%. In the last 4 months, a total of 1.43 Crore dormant legacy folios got cleaned up. This has made the folio quality more genuine, and improved the ratio of contributing SIP folios.
• In the aftermath of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashing in Ahmedabad, the stock prices of Indigo, SpiceJet, and GIC RE fell sharply on higher risks. In addition, the aviation insurance premiums are likely to increase by 15-20%, spiking airline costs further.
• Amazon India plans a big foray into quick commerce. The space is currently dominated by Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, and Zepto. However, Amazon is planning an all-India rollout soon; and with its deep pockets, it could truly disrupt the Q-Commerce segment.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
19-May-25	7,483.41	7,483.41	874.57	874.57
20-May-25	937.83	8,421.24	109.69	984.26
21-May-25	-10,041.38	-1,620.14	-1,175.01	-190.75
22-May-25	2,272.24	652.10	265.59	74.84
23-May-25	-5,436.42	-4,784.32	-634.61	-559.77
26-May-25	593.93	-4,190.39	69.32	-490.45
27-May-25	1,586.48	-2,603.91	186.86	-303.59
28-May-25	952.89	-1,651.02	111.68	-191.91
29-May-25	4,649.70	2,998.68	542.64	350.73
30-May-25	-1,758.23	1,240.45	-205.64	145.09
02-Jun-25	-5,003.74	-3,763.29	-585.38	-440.29
03-Jun-25	-2,105.51	-5,868.80	-246.45	-686.74
04-Jun-25	-3,295.02	-9,163.82	-385.57	-1,072.31
05-Jun-25	1,605.42	-7,558.40	186.76	-885.55
06-Jun-25	49.41	-7,508.99	5.76	-879.79
09-Jun-25	1,265.00	-6,243.99	147.46	-732.33
10-Jun-25	2,412.10	-3,831.89	282.12	-450.21
11-Jun-25	3,077.89	-754.00	359.59	-90.62
12-Jun-25	-131.40	-885.40	-15.38	-106.00
13-Jun-25	-3,275.76	-4,161.16	-382.97	-488.97

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net outflows $(1,025) Million, net inflows $705 Million, net outflows $(560) Million; and net inflows of $521 Million, $1,658 Million, $1,180 Million, and $2,040 Million. The week to June 13, 2025, saw net FPI buying worth $391 Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were to the tune ₹(4,161) Crore or $(489) Million. This week saw Friday sell-off spoiling the party.

Inflation came in lower than expected at 2.82%, but the week was largely about geopolitical risks after Israel attacked Iran. The next week will see some very critical data flows like the RBI MPC minutes, Fed policy statement, Fed projections of macros; and above all, the current account deficit data for FY25. It should be action-packed for FPIs.