Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended March 07, 2025

10 Mar 2025 , 09:36 AM

FPI NET SELLING DEEPENS DURING THE WEEK

After a week of subdued selling in last 2 weeks, the FPIs were back to selling a massive $2.84 Billion in equities in the recent week to March 07, 2025. FPIs were net sellers on all 5 trading sessions this week. This does mark the fourteenth consecutive week of net selling by FPIs, who have sold more than $15.8 Billion in Indian equities since the start of 2025. There were not too many data flows, but the auto numbers surely disappointed the street this week.

In key macros, the rupee continued to hover around ₹87.10/$ levels, and has faced pressure from persistent dollar buying by oil companies. RBI intervention in the rupee market has been relatively cautious. Brent Crude fell to $70/bbl. The oil markets are in a state of flux because if the Europeans go ahead and support Ukraine in its war against Russia, it could just about change the global equations altogether.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO MARCH 07, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(25,246.67)	493.78	(24,752.89)	17,142.46	(7,610.43)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,48,899.36)	11,545.18	(1,37,354.18)	28,232.09	(1,09,122.09)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(17,185.10)	1,330.39	(15,854.71)	3,223.02	(12,631.69)
# – Recent Data is up to March 07, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Negative figures in brackets)

Year 2025 has surely begun on a deeply negative note with $(12,632) Million of net selling overall by FPIs. This includes $(15,855) Million of net selling in equities, partially offset by $3,223 Million of net buying in debt. The IPO action has been fairly tepid in recent weeks with most mainboard IPOs on hold. Even companies that have firmed up IPO plans, are not too sure of the timing. This month, the markets will await the decision of the US Federal Reserve on March 18, 2025; wherein there are split expectations of a 25 bps rate cut.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to March 07, 2025, FPIs remained net sellers to the tune  of $(2,835) Million, sharply higher than the previous week. Here is the week that was.

• The US tariff war continues to keep the global markets on tenterhooks. The US has now decided to put off its tariff imposition on Mexico and Canada, but the Chinese punitive tariffs will go ahead. The big question is on reciprocal tariffs on India.
• A lot of the action appears to be gravitating towards the bond markets. In February 2025, Indian corporates raised $1 Trillion via bond issues, across 197 issues, which is a full 47% higher than the amount raised in January 2025.
• Auto numbers disappointed for February 2025. Total vehicle sales fell by 7.2% yoy to 18.99 Lakh units. Passenger vehicle sales dropped 10.3% yoy to 303 Lakh units, while 2-wheeler sales also dropped 6.3% to 13.53 Lakh units.
• Reliance Retail has seen its valuation halving from $100 Billion to $50 Billion. This has impelled the war room at Reliance Retail to put rapid curbs on costs, put expansion on hold, and even consider major employee lay-offs to keep costs in check.
• The US jobs data had some growth concerns. The non-farm payroll additions of 1.51 lakhs was sharply lower than the one-year average. Also, the unemployment rate was up 10 bps at 4.1%, raising the possibility of a rate cut in the March FOMC meet.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
10-Feb-25	-472.69	-472.69	-54.04	-54.04
11-Feb-25	-2,297.12	-2,769.81	-262.27	-316.31
12-Feb-25	-4,089.26	-6,859.07	-470.65	-786.96
13-Feb-25	-4,875.81	-11,734.88	-561.43	-1,348.39
14-Feb-25	-2,195.60	-13,930.48	-252.71	-1,601.10
17-Feb-25	-5,023.44	-18,953.92	-578.16	-2,179.26
18-Feb-25	-2,122.76	-21,076.68	-244.63	-2,423.89
19-Feb-25	0.00	-21,076.68	0.00	-2,423.89
20-Feb-25	8,216.28	-12,860.40	944.68	-1,479.21
21-Feb-25	-3,507.56	-16,367.96	-404.56	-1,883.77
24-Feb-25	-3,431.23	-19,799.19	-396.01	-2,279.78
25-Feb-25	-5,719.21	-25,518.40	-659.72	-2,939.50
26-Feb-25	0.00	-25,518.40	0.00	-2,939.50
27-Feb-25	-2,833.92	-28,352.32	-325.73	-3,265.23
28-Feb-25	1,119.75	-27,232.57	128.39	-3,136.84
03-Mar-25	-12,026.05	-39,258.62	-1,375.97	-4,512.81
04-Mar-25	-4,662.53	-43,921.15	-533.88	-5,046.69
05-Mar-25	-3,536.05	-47,457.20	-404.68	-5,451.37
06-Mar-25	-1,889.48	-49,346.68	-216.96	-5,668.33
07-Mar-25	-2,638.78	-51,985.46	-303.00	-5,971.33

Data Source: NSDL

• In last 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net outflows $(1,253) Million, $(283) Million, $(1,601) Million, $(841) Million, $(1,604) Million, $(2,283) Million, and $(2,568) Million. In the week to March 07, 2025, net FPI equity outflows spiked to $(2,835) Million.
• If you look at the last 4 rolling weeks on a cumulative basis, total net FPI outflows from equities were to the tune ₹(51,985) Crore or $(5,971) Million; with the broad trend still veering towards FPI sell-off.

The next big triggers for the market will come from the inflation and IIP data in the coming week as well as the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 18, 2025. That could set the tone for FPI flows, although it is Trump Tariffs that will dominate the debate!