Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended May 02, 2025

5 May 2025 , 11:14 AM

FPIS STAY NET BUYERS; BUT MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN

After infusing $2,040 Million into Indian equities in the previous week, FPI flows were relatively modest at $1,180 Million in this week. In the last 3 weeks, FPIs infused $4.21 Billion into Indian equities. Clearly, FPIs are not reading too much into the geopolitical risks caused by Pahalgam attacks. The view is that, India and China will exercise restraint and put their economies and trade in order. That leave little room for Pakistan to manoeuvre.

Meanwhile, Indian rupee strengthened further to ₹84.50/$ gaining ₹3/$ from the lows of February. That was supported by the dollar index (DXY) staying around 99.5 for the fourth week in succession. Brent cracked sharply to the range of $60-61/bbl, after Saudi Arabia indicated they would be boosting oil supplies, even if it meant lower price realizations. The US GDP slipped into contraction mode in Q1, and that also depressed oil prices.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO MAY 02, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar  Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore) #	173.05	0.34	173.39	(1,856.82)	(1,683.43)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,26,264.38)	14,087.18	(1,12,177.20)	21,773.54	(90,403.66)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(14,515.80)	1,624.84	(12,890.96)	2,443.76	(10,447.20)
# – Recent Data is up to May 02, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Outflows in brackets) 

Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(10,447) Million of net selling overall by FPIs; although there was some improvement this week, thanks to equity inflows. This comprised of $(12,891) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $2,444 Million of net buying in debt. The IPO of Ather Energy saw huge anchor and QIB participation and that is reflected in the primary market FPI flows. FPIs were net sellers in debt to the tune of ₹(24,413) Crore in April 2025 as the narrowing of Indo-US yield spreads triggered FPI outflows from India.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to May 02, 2025, FPIs turned net buyers to the tune  of $1,180 Million. Here is the week that was.

1. India reported 3.0% IIP growth in March 2025 and 4.0% IIP growth for FY25 overall. While mining contracted, manufacturing edged higher, but it was electricity that gave the fillip. Export oriented sectors continue to put pressure on IIP.
2. During the week, the US BEA announced the Q1 GDP first advance estimates and PCE inflation for March. While GDP contracted by -0.3% in Q1, the PCE inflation was also lower by 40 bps at 2.3%. Consumer spending has taken a hit due to uncertainty.
3. In a significant move, Brent Crude fell nearly 10% to $60/bbl after Saudi Arabia indicated it would boost supplies even at lower prices. The US GDP contraction also raised doubts on oil demand and kept the oil prices under pressure during the week.
4. In a significant move, Zoho has shelved its chip making plans after it failed to zero in on a technology partner. Earlier, Adani Group had also called off its chip plans. With tech partners being an issue; this may derail government plans to be self-sufficient in chips.
5. Markets remained slightly unsure at higher levels after the diplomatic relationship between India and Pakistan soured. As India revoked the Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian flights. The uncertainty is likely to continue for now.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
07-Apr-25	-3,128.15	-3,128.15	-367.03	-367.03
08-Apr-25	-8,931.15	-12,059.30	-1,040.82	-1,407.85
09-Apr-25	-4,673.87	-16,733.17	-544.05	-1,951.90
10-Apr-25	0.00	-16,733.17	0.00	-1,951.90
11-Apr-25	-4,487.41	-21,220.58	-518.07	-2,469.97
14-Apr-25	0.00	-21,220.58	0.00	-2,469.97
15-Apr-25	-2,351.99	-23,572.57	-273.03	-2,743.00
16-Apr-25	6,798.27	-16,774.30	793.36	-1,949.64
17-Apr-25	4,026.02	-12,748.28	470.07	-1,479.57
18-Apr-25	0.00	-12,748.28	0.00	-1,479.57
21-Apr-25	4,317.31	-8,430.97	504.54	-975.03
22-Apr-25	1,749.56	-6,681.41	205.44	-769.59
23-Apr-25	1,965.18	-4,716.23	230.92	-538.67
24-Apr-25	3,967.25	-748.98	464.35	-74.32
25-Apr-25	5,425.58	4,676.60	634.50	560.18
28-Apr-25	5,040.37	9,716.97	588.98	1,149.16
29-Apr-25	2,509.65	12,226.62	294.57	1,443.73
30-Apr-25	2,351.23	14,577.85	275.97	1,719.70
01-May-25	0.00	14,577.85	0.00	1,719.70
02-May-25	173.39	14,751.24	20.39	1,740.09

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net inflows of $2,040 Million, $990 Million; net outflows of $(2,470) Million, $(1,210) Million; net inflows of $3,231 Million; net outflows of $(194) Million, and $(604) Million. The week to May 02, 2025, saw FPIs net buying equities to the tune of $1,180 Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI inflows into equities were to the tune ₹14,751 Crore or $1,740 Million; with flows clearly turning positive in the last few weeks.

In key data points ahead, the focus will be on the US Fed policy in the coming week and the inflation data in the week after that. Markets will also be awaiting FY25 GDP data on the last day of May 2025.