Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended October 03, 2025

6 Oct 2025 , 08:35 AM

VISA CONCERNS AND Q2 RESULTS KEEP FPIS CAUTIOUS

The week to October 03, 2025 saw net FPI outflows of $(1,147) Million, the second consecutive week of net outflows. On the one hand, tariff concerns and visa issues continue to weigh on the market sentiments. At the same time, the FPIs were also sceptical about the Q2FY26 results, which will kick-off in the coming week. The global macros are likely to weight on Q2 results, with IT sector likely to be under pressure.

The dollar index has been under pressure at 97.72 levels, since the 25-bps rate cut by the Fed. The USDINR closed at ₹88.76/$ levels, with RBI lending support at ₹89/$. Brent Crude had rallied above $70/bbl last week on Russia cutting crude exports. However, higher OPEC supplies pushed Brent down to $64/bbl this week. The uncertainty in the market was best exemplified by spot gold prices touching a new high of $3,897/oz during the current week.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO OCTOBER 03, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore)	8,466.77	6,123.51	14,590.28	(22,153.36)	(7,563.08)
Jul-2025 (₹ Crore)	(31,988.32)	14,247.74	(17,740.58)	12,202.89	(5,537.69)
Aug-2025 (₹ Crore)	(39,063.85)	4,070.42	(34,993.43)	14,488.43	(20,505.00)
Sep-2025 (₹ Crore)	(27,163.33)	3,278.61	(23,884.72)	11,345.99	(12,538.73)
Oct-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(4,860.99)	1,018.59	(3,842.40)	2,738.91	(1,103.49)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(2,02,964.33)	44,603.12	(1,58,361.21)	53,342.70	(1,05,018.51)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(23,212.08)	5,154.41	(18,057.67)	6,032.61	(12,025.06)
# – Recent Data is up to October 03, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Overall FPI flows for 2025 are still negative at $(12,025) Million. This comprised of $(18,058) Million net selling in equities, offset by $6,033 Million net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of $(23,212) Million; offset by IPO buying of $5,154 Million. With mega IPOs like WeWork, Tata Capital, and LG Electronics lined up, the IPO contribution of FPIs is expected to go up substantially. That could be a redeeming factor.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to October 03, 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities worth $(1,147) Million. Here are key market drivers.

• RBI monetary policy held status quo on rates at 5.5% for the second policy in a row. However, the inflation estimate for FY26 was cut by 50 bps from 3.1% to 2.6%. At the same time, the GDP growth estimate for FY26 was raised by 30 bps from 6.5% to 6.8%.
• The US economy went into shutdown on October 01, 2025 after the Congress failed to agree upon the funding over the extension of medical care. This puts non-essential workers on furlough, and the GDP impact could be 10 bps on a weekly basis.
• India added ₹1.30 Trillion to its fiscal deficit in August 2025, which is lower than the ₹4.55 Trillion added in the previous two months. However, the finance minister is confident that the target of fiscal deficit at 4.4% of GDP would be comfortably met.
• IIP growth for August 2025 came in at a robust 4.05%, but lower than 4.27% recorded in July. However, the July IIP growth had seen an upward revision of 80 bps. For August, mining turned around but manufacturing slowed due to the tariff impact.
• The big IPOs are finally making a foray into Indian markets. This week, Tata Capital and LG Electronics India will raise over ₹27,000 crore between them. It will be a critical test for retail, HNI, and institutional appetite for IPOs. Post-listing performance will be key.

Let us turn to granular FPI flows in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
08-Sep-25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
09-Sep-25	-176.03	-176.03	-19.93	-19.93
10-Sep-25	570.79	394.76	64.76	44.83
11-Sep-25	4,494.14	4,888.90	509.97	554.80
12-Sep-25	-3,413.59	1,475.31	-386.75	168.05
15-Sep-25	1,022.64	2,497.95	115.84	283.89
16-Sep-25	-336.45	2,161.50	-38.11	245.78
17-Sep-25	1,645.65	3,807.15	186.90	432.68
18-Sep-25	-280.13	3,527.02	-31.92	400.76
19-Sep-25	785.11	4,312.13	89.70	490.46
22-Sep-25	1,128.39	5,440.52	127.78	618.24
23-Sep-25	-1,971.70	3,468.82	-223.69	394.55
24-Sep-25	-2,794.09	674.73	-314.85	79.70
25-Sep-25	-1,867.85	-1,193.12	-210.44	-130.74
26-Sep-25	-4,100.60	-5,293.72	-462.46	-593.20
29-Sep-25	-4,979.28	-10,273.00	-561.21	-1,154.41
30-Sep-25	-1,354.79	-11,627.79	-152.65	-1,307.06
01-Oct-25	-4,026.06	-15,653.85	-453.42	-1,760.48
02-Oct-25	0.00	-15,653.85	0.00	-1,760.48
03-Oct-25	183.66	-15,470.19	20.71	-1,739.77

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(1,084) Million, net inflows of $322 Million, $168 Million; net outflows of $(1,394) Million, $(1,478) Million, $(122) Million, and $(348) Million. The week to October 03, 2025, saw FPI net selling of $(1,147) Million in equities. In September, FPIs were net buyers in debt for third month in a row.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were ₹ (15,470) Crore or $(1,740) Million. In calendar 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities in 6 out of 9 months; while they were net buyers in debt in 7 out of 9 months.

Next week, FPI flows will largely depend on the progress of the US shutdown. But there are key data points like the US unemployment data and the minutes of the FOMC policy that will be out this week. FPIs are likely to remain cautious on Indian equities; due to expectations of another muted quarter and stretched valuations.