Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended September 12, 2025

16 Sep 2025 , 11:40 AM

FPIS CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF CRITICAL FED MEET

It was the third consecutive truncated week as FPIs did not report data for Monday. For the week to September 12, 2025; FPIs were net buyers worth $168 Million. While the positive number is small, it is material that FPIs broke the 8-week selling trend. During the week, FPIs were cautious overall, with Trump also calling upon the EU to extend sanctions to India and China. FPIs were also wary ahead of the upcoming Fed meet.

During the week, dollar index closed lower at 97.55 levels on strong rate cut expectations. The USDINR still weakened to a low of ₹88.28/$, as hedging demand increased, and the RBI did not offer support. Brent Crude bounced to $66.99/bbl despite the OPEC expanding supply. India CPI inflation bounced to above 2%, reversing the falling trend, while US inflation was up 20 bps at 2.9% in August 2025.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO SEPTEMBER 12, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore)	8,466.77	6,123.51	14,590.28	(22,153.36)	(7,563.08)
Jul-2025 (₹ Crore)	(31,988.32)	14,247.74	(17,740.58)	12,202.89	(5,537.69)
Aug-2025 (₹ Crore)	(39,063.85)	4,070.42	(34,993.43)	14,488.43	(20,505.00)
Sep-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(11,169.20)	387.58	(10,781.62)	2,166.21	(8,615.41)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,82,109.21)	40,693.50	(1,41,415.71)	41,424.01	(99,991.70)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(20,861.84)	4,712.59	(16,149.25)	4,681.15	(11,468.10)
# – Recent Data is up to September 12, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Overall FPI flows for 2025 are still negative at $(11,468) Million. This comprised $(16,149) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $4,681Million of net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of $(20,832) Million; offset by IPO buying of $4,713 Million. Despite a slew of positives like a sovereign rating upgrade by S&P, record GDP growth numbers, restrained CAD, and GST reforms; FPIs remain rather cautious.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to September 12, 2025, FPIs were net buyers in equities worth $168 Million. Here are the key market drivers.

• India CPI inflation for August 2025 bounced to 2.07%. Earlier, the July inflation estimate had also been raised from 1.55% to 1.61%. This bounce in inflation is despite a lower base, so the actual inflation impact may be much higher in the current month.
• In line with expectations, the US consumer inflation also bounced by 20 bps to 2.9%, even as core inflation stayed stable at 3.1%. It was, once again, the spillover impact of the tariffs showing up. US inflation is now a full 90 bps above long-term target.
• Despite the higher US inflation, the CME Fedwatch is almost certain about a 25-bps rate cut in September; with a small expectation of 50-bps cut too. The market is betting that the rate cut will be implemented to address the growing crisis on the jobs front.
• Infosys announced a massive ₹18,000 Crore buyback plan, at a price of ₹1,800 per share. The sharp premium over the market price is meant to attract shareholders. Infosys is making good use of its cash stash, but that is not helping its valuations too much.
• Crude oil imports from Russia continue to scale new highs. In the first 2 weeks of Sep-25, the crude oil imports from Russia averaged 1.87 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to 1.66 million bpd in July. This could trigger punitive sanctions from the US.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
18-Aug-25	-1,208.35	-1,208.35	-138.12	-138.12
19-Aug-25	1,015.64	-192.71	116.19	-21.93
20-Aug-25	-12.27	-204.98	-1.41	-23.34
21-Aug-25	-297.77	-502.75	-34.19	-57.53
22-Aug-25	-562.34	-1,065.09	-64.66	-122.19
25-Aug-25	340.16	-724.93	38.91	-83.28
26-Aug-25	-1,555.13	-2,280.06	-177.89	-261.17
27-Aug-25	0.00	-2,280.06	0.00	-261.17
28-Aug-25	-5,650.28	-7,930.34	-643.97	-905.14
29-Aug-25	-6,088.23	-14,018.57	-694.56	-1,599.70
01-Sep-25	-8,982.89	-23,001.46	-1,022.51	-2,622.21
02-Sep-25	-1,652.11	-24,653.57	-187.19	-2,809.40
03-Sep-25	-937.05	-25,590.62	-106.45	-2,915.85
04-Sep-25	-684.88	-26,275.50	-77.74	-2,993.59
05-Sep-25	0.00	-26,275.50	0.00	-2,993.59
08-Sep-25	0.00	-26,275.50	0.00	-2,993.59
09-Sep-25	-176.03	-26,451.53	-19.93	-3,013.52
10-Sep-25	570.79	-25,880.74	64.76	-2,948.76
11-Sep-25	4,494.14	-21,386.60	509.97	-2,438.79
12-Sep-25	-3,413.59	-24,800.19	-386.75	-2,825.54

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(1,394) Million, $(1,478) Million, $(122) Million, $ (348) Million, $(1,344) Million, $(2,000) Million, and $(113) Million. The week to September 12, 2025, saw marginal FPI buying of $168 Million in equities.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were ₹ (24,800) Crore or $(2,826) Million. In 2025, FPIs have been net buyers in debt in 7 out of 9 months.

In the coming week, FPI flows will principally react to the Fed policy statement and the Fed quarterly projection of key macros. Of course, from an India perspective, it would also depend on how serious Trump is about imposing sanctions on India and China.