Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended September 19, 2025

22 Sep 2025 , 11:55 AM

FPIS TENTATIVE, DESPITE GREEN-SHOOTS OF OPTIMISM

The week to September 19, 2025 was the second consecutive week of FPI inflows, albeit marginal. FPIs were net buyers worth $322 Million; infusing close to $500 Million in last 2 weeks. While the positive number is small, it is critical that FPIs have broken the 8-week selling trend. During the week, FPIs were optimistic about improving equations between PM Modi and President Trump. However, valuations and muted Q1 earnings are a challenge.

For the week, dollar index closed flat at 97.64 levels after the Fed cut rates by 25 bps and hinted at 2 more rate cuts in 2025. The USDINR hardened marginally to ₹88.10/$, as hedging pressure reduced and Indo-US relations appeared to thaw. Brent Crude was also flat at $66.68/bbl despite the OPEC expanding supply. The quarterly Fed projections are clearly envisaging front-loading of rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 to pre-empt a jobs crisis.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO SEPTEMBER 19, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore)	8,466.77	6,123.51	14,590.28	(22,153.36)	(7,563.08)
Jul-2025 (₹ Crore)	(31,988.32)	14,247.74	(17,740.58)	12,202.89	(5,537.69)
Aug-2025 (₹ Crore)	(39,063.85)	4,070.42	(34,993.43)	14,488.43	(20,505.00)
Sep-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(9,503.94)	1,559.14	(7,944.80)	11,003.90	3,059.10
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,80,443.95)	41,865.06	(1,38,578.89)	50,261.70	(88,317.19)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(20,672.93)	4,845.49	(15,827.44)	5,684.87	(10,142.57)
# – Recent Data is up to September 19, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Overall FPI flows for 2025 are still negative at $(10,143) Million. This comprised of $(15,828) Million net selling in equities, offset by $5,685 Million net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of $(20,673) Million; offset by IPO buying of $4,846 Million. FPIs have stayed tentative; as they are concerned about Indian valuations and the muted Q1 earnings. EM Flows are gravitating towards China and South Korea.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to September 19, 2025, FPIs were net buyers in equities worth $322 Million. Here are the key market drivers.

• India trade deficit slightly mellowed to $26.49 Billion for August as imports fell on the back of lower value of oil imports. However, gold imports again crossed $5 Billion. Services exports were robust, leading to the goods deficit getting largely offset.
• US Fed announced its first rate cut in 2025. The 25-bps rate cut took Fed rates to the range of 4.25%-4.50%. The dot plot chart of the Fed is now hinting at 2 more rate cuts in the current year and, probably, another two rate cuts in the year 2026.
• Along with the Fed statement, the FOMC also released its quarterly update of macro projections for September 2025. Over the next 2 years, the FOMC is betting on higher GDP growth, lower unemployment, and higher inflation than expected in June 2025.
• The WPI inflation for August bounced to 0.52%, after being in negative zone for 2 months in a row. The bounce in wholesale inflation was largely triggered by the manufacturing inflation. That is a sign of input costs rising for Indian corporates.
• SEBI has dropped most of the charges against the Adani group due to lack of evidence. These cases were based on the allegations made by Hindenburg Research. The outcome was visible in the prices of most of the Adani stocks rallying sharply on Friday.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
25-Aug-25	340.16	340.16	38.91	38.91
26-Aug-25	-1,555.13	-1,214.97	-177.89	-138.98
27-Aug-25	0.00	-1,214.97	0.00	-138.98
28-Aug-25	-5,650.28	-6,865.25	-643.97	-782.95
29-Aug-25	-6,088.23	-12,953.48	-694.56	-1,477.51
01-Sep-25	-8,982.89	-21,936.37	-1,022.51	-2,500.02
02-Sep-25	-1,652.11	-23,588.48	-187.19	-2,687.21
03-Sep-25	-937.05	-24,525.53	-106.45	-2,793.66
04-Sep-25	-684.88	-25,210.41	-77.74	-2,871.40
05-Sep-25	0.00	-25,210.41	0.00	-2,871.40
08-Sep-25	0.00	-25,210.41	0.00	-2,871.40
09-Sep-25	-176.03	-25,386.44	-19.93	-2,891.33
10-Sep-25	570.79	-24,815.65	64.76	-2,826.57
11-Sep-25	4,494.14	-20,321.51	509.97	-2,316.60
12-Sep-25	-3,413.59	-23,735.10	-386.75	-2,703.35
15-Sep-25	1,022.64	-22,712.46	115.84	-2,587.51
16-Sep-25	-336.45	-23,048.91	-38.11	-2,625.62
17-Sep-25	1,645.65	-21,403.26	186.90	-2,438.72
18-Sep-25	-280.13	-21,683.39	-31.92	-2,470.64
19-Sep-25	785.11	-20,898.28	89.70	-2,380.94

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net inflows of $168 Million; net outflows of $(1,394) Million, $(1,478) Million, $(122) Million, $ (348) Million, $(1,344) Million, and $(2,000) Million. The week to September 19, 2025, saw FPI buying of $322 Million in equities.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were ₹ (20,898) Crore or $(2,381) Million. September 2025 has seen some serious buying in debt.

In the coming week, FPI flows will principally react to the Indo-US trade talks, the impact on tariffs, and the India core sector growth. FPIs will also await cues from the RBI on how it plans to set the direction of interest rates in the coming months.