Weekly Musings – Index performance for week ended January 03, 2025

6 Jan 2025 , 09:54 AM

INDICES HOLD UP, DESPITE FPI SELLING

The week saw FPI selling of $645 Million, on top of the $600 Million of selling in the previous week. However, the Nifty and the Sensex managed to close in the green. Interestingly, the banking stocks came in for a bit of selling in the week, especially after CLSA dropped HDFC Bank from their India buy list. However, this was more than compensated by the rally in consumer good stocks in Autos and FMCG. Surprisingly, even oil stocks (led by Reliance Industries) did fairly well during the week, leading to most indices, other than Bank Nifty, rallying sharply during the week. The VIX has not fallen but steady in the 13-14 range. In terms of data flows, core sector data was positive at 4.5% growth, but the markets were concerned about tepid progress on capex spending during FY25.

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX – CONSUMER GOODS HOLD UP SENSEX

The table captures the movement of the BSE SENSEX 30 for the week to January 03, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
03-Jan-25	80,072.99	80,072.99	79,109.73	79,223.11
02-Jan-25	78,657.52	80,032.87	78,542.37	79,943.71
01-Jan-25	78,265.07	78,756.49	77,898.30	78,507.41
31-Dec-24	77,982.57	78,305.34	77,560.79	78,139.01
30-Dec-24	78,637.58	79,092.70	78,077.13	78,248.13
27-Dec-24	78,607.62	79,043.15	78,598.55	78,699.07
		Weekly Returns		+0.67%

Data Source: BSE

For the week, the Sensex jumped by 524 points or +0.67%, making it the second consecutive week of gains on the index. The new year allocations are yet to happen, but it looks like they may veer towards consumer goods over BFSI. For the week, Sensex touched a high of 80,073 and a low of 77,561; marking lower highs and lower lows for the week.

NIFTY 50 INDEX – AUTOS, OIL, AND FMCG HOLD UP

The table captures the movement of Nifty 50 index in the week to January 03, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
03-Jan-25	24,196.40	24,196.45	23,976.00	24,004.75
02-Jan-25	23,783.00	24,226.70	23,751.55	24,188.65
01-Jan-25	23,637.65	23,822.80	23,562.80	23,742.90
31-Dec-24	23,560.60	23,689.85	23,460.45	23,644.80
30-Dec-24	23,796.90	23,915.35	23,599.30	23,644.90
27-Dec-24	23,801.40	23,938.85	23,800.60	23,813.40
		Weekly Returns		+0.80%

Data Source: NSE

Consumer goods stocks held up for the second week in a row on expectations of tax breaks for the middle-class tax payers. For the week, the Nifty rose 191 points or +0.80%; as oil, auto and FMCG stocks held up. For the week, Nifty touched a high of 24,227 and a low of 23,460, with the VIX still in the range of 13-14 levels for the week.

NIFTY MID-CAP 100 INDEX – WEEK SIGNALS RETURN OF ALPHA HUNTING

The table captures the movement of Nifty Mid-Cap 100 in the week to January 03, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
03-Jan-25	58,211.35	58,393.80	57,858.25	57,931.05
02-Jan-25	57,581.60	58,170.90	57,411.00	58,108.20
01-Jan-25	57,225.05	57,473.85	57,026.35	57,450.90
31-Dec-24	56,921.65	57,382.75	56,475.95	57,199.45
30-Dec-24	56,958.35	57,321.45	56,592.10	57,189.75
27-Dec-24	57,266.65	57,348.95	56,950.50	56,979.80
		Weekly Returns		+1.67%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Mid Cap 100 bounced 951 points or +1.67%; more than the frontline indices. However, the buying has been very stock-specific and veering towards consumer facing stocks. For the week, Nifty Mid-cap touched a high of 58,394 and a low of 56,476.

NIFTY SMALL-CAP 100 INDEX – NICHE PLAYS ATTRACT BUYING

The table captures movement of Nifty Small Cap 100 in the week to January 03, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
03-Jan-25	19,120.35	19,224.95	19,009.45	19,033.70
02-Jan-25	19,012.80	19,089.55	18,932.35	19,080.35
01-Jan-25	18,781.90	18,989.00	18,753.65	18,959.80
31-Dec-24	18,596.35	18,822.30	18,472.75	18,769.20
30-Dec-24	18,762.35	18,787.35	18,561.10	18,639.95
27-Dec-24	18,775.30	18,822.70	18,705.25	18,755.85
		Weekly Returns		+1.48%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Small Cap 100 bounced by 278 points or +1.48%; again, beating frontline indices. Select consumer plays and dollar defensives saw buying interest. For the week, the Nifty Small-cap touched a high of 19,225 and a low of 18,473.

BANK NIFTY INDEX – STAYS UNDER PRESSURE

The table below captures the movement of BANKNIFTY in the week to January 03, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
03-Jan-25	51,567.15	51,671.60	50,904.35	50,988.80
02-Jan-25	51,084.95	51,672.75	50,992.80	51,605.55
01-Jan-25	50,841.90	51,321.95	50,485.05	51,060.60
31-Dec-24	50,648.20	50,945.55	50,599.80	50,860.20
30-Dec-24	51,255.35	51,979.75	50,718.35	50,952.75
27-Dec-24	51,268.20	51,628.45	51,240.10	51,311.30
		Weekly Returns		-0.63%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Bank fell by -323 points or -0.63%; bucking the macro trend. The narrowing yield spread between India and the US spooked banks, as did the removal of HDFC Bank from the CLSA India portfolio. For the week, the Bank Nifty touched a high of 51,978 and a low of 50,485.

NIFTY IT INDEX – CLOSES FLAT, DESPITE DOLLAR STRENGTH

The table captures the movement of Nifty IT index in the week to January 03, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
03-Jan-25	44,334.15	44,337.15	43,554.95	43,726.55
02-Jan-25	43,401.65	44,420.95	43,325.90	44,351.75
01-Jan-25	43,290.65	43,568.50	43,249.80	43,373.10
31-Dec-24	43,622.40	43,659.65	42,574.45	43,337.80
30-Dec-24	43,674.05	44,175.50	43,259.80	43,971.40
27-Dec-24	43,707.00	43,863.65	43,546.05	43,721.40
		Weekly Returns		+0.01%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty IT Index was flat, rising by just 5 points or +0.01%. Despite strong dollar, there are concerns that tech spending could get hit if there are signs of macro slowdown. Index touched a high of 44,337 and a low of 42,574 levels.

NIFTY OIL & GAS INDEX – RELIANCE DOES THE MAGIC

The table captures the Nifty Oil & Gas index for the week to January 03, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
03-Jan-25	10,940.10	11,153.45	10,922.20	11,046.65
02-Jan-25	10,763.90	10,920.80	10,750.05	10,909.65
01-Jan-25	10,732.30	10,801.25	10,687.05	10,771.95
31-Dec-24	10,613.00	10,766.00	10,601.30	10,744.25
30-Dec-24	10,657.20	10,722.60	10,591.80	10,631.15
27-Dec-24	10,762.05	10,782.40	10,671.50	10,683.05
		Weekly Returns		+3.40%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Oil & Gas Index bounced by 364 points or +3.40%. Reliance rallied on hopes of improving gross refining margins (GRM) and that rubbed of. For the week, the Nifty Oil & Gas Index touched a high of 11,453 and a low of 10,592 levels.

NIFTY AUTO INDEX – DECEMBER AUTO NUMBERS FLATTER

The table captures the movement of Nifty Auto index in the week to January 03, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
03-Jan-25	24,058.95	24,173.25	23,899.75	24,005.00
02-Jan-25	23,255.25	24,051.80	23,155.20	24,016.20
01-Jan-25	22,834.20	23,167.40	22,689.20	23,139.55
31-Dec-24	22,713.60	22,899.80	22,641.00	22,834.00
30-Dec-24	23,072.25	23,100.80	22,695.75	22,768.25
27-Dec-24	22,960.60	23,461.95	22,952.60	23,099.05
		Weekly Returns		+3.92%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Auto Index bounced by 906 points or +3.92%; on solid auto offtake numbers and hopes of government cutting tax exemption limits. For the week, the Nifty Auto Index touched a high of 24,173 and a low of 22,641 levels.

NIFTY FMCG INDEX – CONSUMER PLAYS ARE BACK WITH A BANG

The table captures the movement of Nifty FMCG index in the week to January 03, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
03-Jan-25	57,903.05	57,923.50	57,410.05	57,817.00
02-Jan-25	57,129.15	57,718.15	56,846.35	57,671.35
01-Jan-25	56,884.05	57,129.90	56,767.35	57,017.65
31-Dec-24	56,576.25	56,845.80	56,278.50	56,799.65
30-Dec-24	56,545.25	56,827.60	56,278.70	56,618.40
27-Dec-24	56,436.75	56,615.80	56,220.15	56,444.25
		Weekly Returns		+2.43

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the sharp spike in Nifty FMCG index was +2.43%. It has shrugged off urban demand worries and is betting on rural demand revival. Tax breaks could add to demand. For the week, the Nifty FMCG Index touched a high of 57,924 and a low of 56,279 levels; a genuine case of higher highs and higher lows.