Weekly Musings – Index performance for week ended July 04, 2025

7 Jul 2025 , 09:56 AM

FPIs were net buyers in equities worth $497 Million this week. Amidst caution in the markets, the VIX was steady at around the 12.32 levels. In terms of data, the IIP was lower than expected at 1.23%; but fiscal deficit was comfortable, albeit due to RBI dividends.

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX – SEES PRESSURE DURING THE WEEK

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
04-Jul-25	83,306.81	83,477.86	83,015.83	83,432.89
03-Jul-25	83,540.74	83,850.09	83,186.74	83,239.47
02-Jul-25	83,790.72	83,935.01	83,150.77	83,409.69
01-Jul-25	83,685.66	83,874.29	83,572.51	83,697.29
30-Jun-25	84,027.33	84,099.53	83,482.13	83,606.46
27-Jun-25	83,774.45	84,089.35	83,645.41	84,058.90
		Weekly Returns		-0.74%

Data Source: BSE

For the week, Sensex fell -626 points or -0.74%. It was a sense of caution ahead of a critical week when the US tariff deadline expires. Sensex touched a weekly high of 84,100 and a low of 83,016; closing tepid, despite a late Friday rally.

NIFTY 50 INDEX – CAUTIOUS AMIDST EVENT RISKS

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
04-Jul-25	25,428.85	25,470.25	25,331.65	25,461.00
03-Jul-25	25,505.10	25,587.50	25,384.35	25,405.30
02-Jul-25	25,588.30	25,608.10	25,378.75	25,453.40
01-Jul-25	25,551.35	25,593.40	25,501.80	25,541.80
30-Jun-25	25,661.65	25,669.35	25,473.30	25,517.05
27-Jun-25	25,576.65	25,654.20	25,523.55	25,637.80
		Weekly Returns		-0.69%

Data Source: NSE

Markets were cautious ahead of event risks and the Jane Street controversy only made things more uncertain. The Nifty gave up -177 points or -0.69%, as caution was the watch-word in markets. Nifty touched a weekly high of 25,669 and low of 25,332 this week.

NIFTY MID-CAP 100 INDEX – LIMITED IMPACT OF MACRO RISKS

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
04-Jul-25	59,782.60	59,899.70	59,349.65	59,677.75
03-Jul-25	59,798.60	59,955.50	59,613.55	59,683.25
02-Jul-25	59,795.05	59,864.75	59,361.60	59,667.25
01-Jul-25	59,876.40	59,911.95	59,435.25	59,750.05
30-Jun-25	59,665.90	59,796.00	59,430.80	59,741.20
27-Jun-25	59,430.15	59,693.70	59,336.80	59,385.15
		Weekly Returns		+0.49%

Data Source: NSE

While there was no aggressive alpha hunting; macro risks were not too prominent. Nifty Mid-cap touched a weekly high of 59,912 and low of 59,350. Mid-caps have got a leg up, after Brent Crude fell sharply in the last 2 weeks on demand concerns.

NIFTY SMALL CAP 100 INDEX – JANE STREET MAKES RETAIL INVESTORS WARY

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
04-Jul-25	19,046.25	19,079.05	18,933.90	19,033.05
03-Jul-25	19,015.05	19,080.90	18,960.10	19,027.05
02-Jul-25	19,103.25	19,111.75	18,896.25	18,977.10
01-Jul-25	19,144.30	19,153.70	18,992.95	19,055.70
30-Jun-25	19,057.55	19,152.90	19,023.85	19,075.10
27-Jun-25	18,885.30	18,997.10	18,854.95	18,976.80
		Weekly Returns		+0.30%

Data Source: NSE

Small cap index edged up +0.30%; but the Jane Street impact is gradually rubbing off on small cap appetite too. Nifty Small-cap index touched a weekly high of 19,154 and a low of 18,896. However, the index continues to make higher highs and higher lows.

BANK NIFTY INDEX – PRIVATE BANKS APPLY PRESSURE

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
04-Jul-25	56,825.25	57,075.10	56,623.60	57,031.90
03-Jul-25	57,050.40	57,193.25	56,764.10	56,791.95
02-Jul-25	57,558.20	57,628.40	56,833.80	56,999.20
01-Jul-25	57,375.80	57,533.85	57,150.35	57,459.45
30-Jun-25	57,529.95	57,614.50	57,193.80	57,312.75
27-Jun-25	57,234.70	57,475.40	56,993.85	57,443.90
		Weekly Returns		-0.72%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, Nifty Bank fell -412 points or -0.72%, as private banks corrected after a cautious growth guidance from HDFC Bank. Bank Nifty touched weekly high of 57,628 and low of 56,624. However, PSU banks were among the top gainers for the week.

NIFTY IT INDEX – BENEFITS FROM A WEAK RUPEE

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
04-Jul-25	38,968.10	39,191.90	38,784.40	39,166.55
03-Jul-25	39,009.85	39,203.70	38,803.75	38,854.30
02-Jul-25	39,080.30	39,519.50	38,738.85	38,879.10
01-Jul-25	39,004.65	39,282.95	38,725.25	38,833.15
30-Jun-25	38,945.85	39,011.95	38,652.30	38,950.00
27-Jun-25	39,125.75	39,357.75	38,707.15	38,822.95
		Weekly Returns		+0.89%

Data Source: NSE

Despite a tepid dollar index (DXY), rupee continues to be weak, and that helped IT stocks. IT Index touched a weekly high of 39,520 and a low of 38,652. The big US corporate tax breaks under OBBBA are likely to be positive for Indian IT stocks in terms of tech-spending.

NIFTY OIL & GAS INDEX – DOWNSTREAM OIL STOCKS GAIN

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
04-Jul-25	11,923.45	12,016.05	11,870.75	12,002.35
03-Jul-25	11,866.15	11,949.15	11,840.30	11,877.30
02-Jul-25	11,882.45	11,900.35	11,762.20	11,838.20
01-Jul-25	11,816.35	11,875.20	11,792.20	11,858.75
30-Jun-25	11,862.15	11,916.60	11,765.10	11,800.95
27-Jun-25	11,722.25	11,884.30	11,715.35	11,835.05
		Weekly Returns		+1.41%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, Nifty Oil & Gas Index closed with gains of +1.41%. Brent crude prices around $68/bbl has helped the profits of downstream players. For now, Iran blocking the Straits of Hormuz is off the radar; but the Gulf Region continues to be volatile.

NIFTY FMCG INDEX – PROFITABILITY THE BIG CONCERN IN Q1

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
04-Jul-25	54,699.20	54,799.35	54,550.10	54,735.60
03-Jul-25	54,570.95	54,802.90	54,379.50	54,515.75
02-Jul-25	54,620.60	54,643.50	54,293.90	54,439.70
01-Jul-25	54,997.50	55,022.05	54,396.95	54,502.95
30-Jun-25	55,203.50	55,268.15	54,698.15	54,883.90
27-Jun-25	55,246.50	55,298.35	55,044.75	55,109.00
		Weekly Returns		-0.68%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, FMCG index closed -0.68% lower. Demand guidance appears to be good, but most FMCG companies are cautious on operating margins. Nifty FMCG Index touched weekly high of 55,268 and low of 54,294 levels, with the panache still missing.