Weekly Musings – Index performance for week ended November 08, 2024

11 Nov 2024 , 09:33 AM

FLAT MARKETS, BUT IT IS THE STANDOUT PERFORMER

The Sensex was marginally lower for the week with the Nifty seeing a slightly sharper correction. There was not much of alpha hunting visible, which is understandable, considering the uncertain macro environment. During the week, Donald Trump marked h is return for a second term, albeit with an interim gap of 4 years. Trump has already announced an inward looking approach and that is expected to be growth accretive for the US economy. Hence, it was not surprising that the IT sector was among the star performers of the week. The monetary policy statement in the week by the US Fed also underlined the fact that the US economy was in fine fettle. Otherwise, the flows continued to be negative with FPIs selling $2.37 Billion in equities during the week as the Long China – Short India trade continued to be the theme for most FPIs.

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX – IT SECTOR HELPS SENSEX GET FLAT CLOSE

The table captures the movement of the BSE SENSEX 30 for the week to November 08, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
08-Nov-24	79,611.90	79,807.26	79,117.37	79,486.32
07-Nov-24	80,563.42	80,563.42	79,419.34	79,541.79
06-Nov-24	79,771.82	80,569.73	79,459.12	80,378.13
05-Nov-24	78,542.16	79,523.13	78,296.70	79,476.63
04-Nov-24	79,713.14	79,713.14	78,232.60	78,782.24
01-Nov-24	80,023.75	80,023.75	79,655.55	79,724.12
		Weekly Returns		-0.30%

Data Source: BSE

It was a week of marginal losses for the BSE Sensex at 30 basis points or 238 points for the week. While banks, oil & gas and FMCG were under pressure, it was IT sector that held up the index. During the week, Sensex touched a high of 80,570 and a low of 78,233; closing below the psychological 79,500 levels for the third week in a row.

NIFTY 50 INDEX – NIFTY FALLS DESPITE SLIDE IN VIX

The table captures the movement of Nifty 50 index in the week to November 08, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
08-Nov-24	24,207.70	24,276.15	24,066.65	24,148.20
07-Nov-24	24,489.60	24,503.35	24,179.05	24,199.35
06-Nov-24	24,308.75	24,537.60	24,204.05	24,484.05
05-Nov-24	23,916.50	24,229.05	23,842.75	24,213.30
04-Nov-24	24,315.75	24,316.75	23,816.15	23,995.35
01-Nov-24	24,302.75	24,368.25	24,280.20	24,304.35
		Weekly Returns		-0.64%

Data Source: NSE

It was a week of losses for the Nifty 50 at 64 basis points or 156 points for the week. While IT was supportive of the Nifty, oil and FMCG continued to put pressure. Auto was flat and banks were marginally lower. VIX tapered to around the 14 levels but it is still too high to warrant buy on dips. FPIs sold $2.37 Billion in the first week of November. During the week, the Nifty touched a high of 24,538 and a low of 23,816. For now, the 24,000 levels has been held on a closing basis, but that may not hold for too long.

NIFTY MID-CAP 100 INDEX – ALPHA HUNTING STILL ELUSIVE

The table captures the movement of Nifty Mid-Cap 100 in the week to November 08, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
08-Nov-24	57,201.70	57,214.85	56,207.20	56,352.00
07-Nov-24	57,628.30	57,731.55	57,037.70	57,109.15
06-Nov-24	56,452.50	57,435.10	56,369.70	57,355.80
05-Nov-24	55,706.25	56,173.00	55,191.30	56,115.45
04-Nov-24	56,573.95	56,573.95	55,505.10	55,784.55
01-Nov-24	56,471.15	56,657.05	56,415.70	56,496.05
		Weekly Returns		-0.25%

Data Source: NSE

It was a week of marginal losses for the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 at 25 basis points or 144 points for the week. Even in sectors like IT and autos, smaller stocks performed a lot better. However, there was pressure from weak rupee and rising oil prices. During the week, the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 touched a high of 57,732 and a low of 55,191.

NIFTY SMALL-CAP 100 INDEX – GIVES UP SOME OF THE EUPHORIA

The table captures movement of Nifty Small Cap 100 in the week to November 08, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
08-Nov-24	18,783.25	18,797.35	18,401.15	18,445.60
07-Nov-24	18,976.05	19,031.90	18,740.75	18,763.85
06-Nov-24	18,592.50	18,921.40	18,550.35	18,906.10
05-Nov-24	18,370.40	18,524.15	18,248.60	18,503.45
04-Nov-24	18,773.15	18,789.55	18,308.15	18,424.65
01-Nov-24	18,764.95	18,862.25	18,738.85	18,794.90
		Weekly Returns		-1.86%

Data Source: NSE

After the 5.3% rally in the last week, the small cap index fell by 186 bps or nearly 349 points for the current week. There was buying from retail and domestic funds. This week, the Nifty Small Cap index touched a high of 19,032 levels and a low of 18,249. The small cap index is also vulnerable to rupee weakness and oil price spike. However, the undertone of the small cap space continues to be relatively robust.

BANK NIFTY INDEX – CAUTIOUS DESPITE GOOD Q2 NUMBERS

The table below captures the movement of BANKNIFTY in the week to November 08, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
08-Nov-24	51,869.15	52,007.15	51,494.00	51,561.20
07-Nov-24	52,258.95	52,377.25	51,752.25	51,916.50
06-Nov-24	52,440.40	52,493.95	52,185.40	52,317.40
05-Nov-24	51,052.60	52,289.55	50,865.45	52,207.25
04-Nov-24	51,764.50	51,764.50	51,066.80	51,215.25
01-Nov-24	51,550.15	51,825.50	51,459.40	51,673.90
		Weekly Returns		-0.22%

Data Source: NSE

Bank Nifty was the star last week, but this week it closed 22 bps lower or 113 points lower. Banks had rallied ahead of the Fed policy statement in the previous week; but there are concerns over sustaining NIMs. With high cost deposits rising, NIMs may see further stress. During the week, Bank Nifty touched a high of 52,494 and a low of 50,865. Due to its weight in the overall Nifty, the Bank Nifty almost was at par with the Sensex.

NIFTY IT INDEX – TRUMP + GROWTH IS AN IT SURGE

The table captures the movement of Nifty IT index in the week to November 08, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
08-Nov-24	41,938.80	42,306.70	41,840.70	42,050.15
07-Nov-24	42,151.50	42,369.65	41,348.75	41,752.40
06-Nov-24	40,770.60	42,105.50	40,675.05	42,039.50
05-Nov-24	40,345.45	40,658.25	40,225.20	40,424.60
04-Nov-24	40,202.25	40,472.45	39,975.00	40,421.80
01-Nov-24	40,568.65	40,646.70	40,366.50	40,433.65
		Weekly Returns		4.00%

Data Source: NSE

Nifty IT was the real star of the week gaining 1,617 basis points or 4.00% in trades; offsetting the sharp fall last week. IT sector gained from dollar strength, inward looking Trump, and hopes that tech spending will revive. During the week, Nifty IT index touched a high of 42,370 and low of 39,975. IT was the only heavyweight to outperform by a big margin.

NIFTY OIL & GAS INDEX – RELIANCE PUTS PRESSURE ON OIL

The table captures the Nifty Oil & Gas index for the week to November 08, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
08-Nov-24	11,425.85	11,437.40	11,177.50	11,228.10
07-Nov-24	11,549.65	11,583.30	11,439.90	11,452.35
06-Nov-24	11,325.55	11,551.65	11,283.55	11,530.95
05-Nov-24	11,100.10	11,258.35	11,057.90	11,245.15
04-Nov-24	11,456.80	11,463.15	11,033.45	11,158.20
01-Nov-24	11,399.90	11,460.25	11,394.85	11,442.25
		Weekly Returns		-1.87%

Data Source: NSE

With weak GRMs and Reliance depleting $50 billion in market cap, the oil sector correction was expected. This week, the oil & gas index closed with losses of -187 basis points or 214 points on the index. For the sector to revive, a bottoming of RIL stock price is a must. For the week to November 08, 2024, the Oil & Gas index touched a high of 11,583 and a low of 11,033; making higher highs and lower lows.

NIFTY AUTO INDEX – ABSOLUTE FLAT CLOSE FOR AUTOMOBILES

The table captures the movement of Nifty Auto index in the week to November 08, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
08-Nov-24	23,855.55	23,900.60	23,536.05	23,805.20
07-Nov-24	24,236.95	24,243.80	23,696.05	23,812.50
06-Nov-24	23,960.70	24,181.50	23,835.85	24,137.90
05-Nov-24	23,553.15	23,891.15	23,462.45	23,839.60
04-Nov-24	23,883.75	24,068.90	23,258.15	23,573.20
01-Nov-24	23,792.70	23,869.75	23,765.90	23,805.60
		Weekly Returns		0.00%

Data Source: NSE

With genuine concerns over offtake, festive demand and cost of ownership and maintenance of cars; the auto sector had another flat week. This week the auto index closed absolutely flat (0 bps higher). Auto Index made a weekly high of 24,284 and a low of 23,258; a clear case of the negatives still outweighing the positives in auto segment.

NIFTY FMCG INDEX – WHERE IS THE URBAN DEMAND

The table captures the movement of Nifty FMCG index in the week to November 08, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
08-Nov-24	58,241.40	58,431.65	57,854.85	58,359.40
07-Nov-24	58,816.30	58,917.35	58,059.95	58,180.25
06-Nov-24	58,608.55	58,962.40	58,441.20	58,754.80
05-Nov-24	58,601.50	58,871.25	58,242.35	58,542.20
04-Nov-24	59,579.10	59,589.90	58,398.95	58,743.70
01-Nov-24	59,542.25	59,620.40	59,328.70	59,433.20
		Weekly Returns		-1.81%

Data Source: NSE

Urban demand was back to haunt FMCG index this week as it closed with losses of -181 basis points or 1,074 points on the index. The demand narrative is working against FMCG. During the week, the FMCG Index touched a high of 59,590 and a low of 57,855. Q2FY25 saw FMCG stocks under pressure across the board.